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"Entitled" To Death - 7/30/2007 9:03:54 AM

Mercnbeth

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When programs desired and implemented for assistance become a large part of how people exist, eventually the bubble will burst and the whole house of cards comes tumbling around with them.

quote:

The aging of America is not just a population change or, as a budget problem, an accounting exercise.

Consider the outlook. From 2005 to 2030, the 65-and-over population will nearly double to 71 million; its share of the population will rise to 20 percent from 12 percent. Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid—programs that serve older people—already exceed 40 percent of the $2.7 trillion federal budget. By 2030, their share could hit 75 percent of the present budget, projects the Congressional Budget Office. The result: a political impasse.

To balance the budget with existing programs at their present economic shares would require, depending on assumptions, tax increases of 30 percent to 50 percent—or budget deficits could quadruple.

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20010728/site/newsweek/?from=rss

Other than justify my reasoning for acquiring duel citizenship and moving to Italy as soon as I retire, I don't see how else to address this situation. SS, Medicare/Medicaid are sacred cows that neither political party wants to tackle. Consider the response to the attempt to allow personal choice to come into play amending SS. It won't happen until the SS checks start to bounce.

The burden this will place on US economy appears timed to occur simultaneously to the boom expected in China. Will it be a smooth passing of the world leader baton as it was from Europe to the US after WWII? Or will China turn out to be a different sort of global power? Will the leader of China be referred to by the unofficial titular title "Leader of the 'Free World'"; or will that reference no longer apply?

I hope to be commenting on it on the pages of CM from my place in Tuscany.

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RE: "Entitled" To Death - 7/30/2007 9:12:16 AM

mnottertail

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well the boom in china has some trouble since they have a large aging population as well and with the advent of Mao's one child per----they have some real big issues.

One of the issues with this whole thing and the quality of life brings us back to Dr. Kevorkian.

I, btw, am very much in favor of euthanasia rather than pills and breathers and comas and rotting away in cancer for the elusive quality of life and dying with dignity bullshit.

Ron

I 'll pop over and we will drink un altro quartto di lambrusco----under a tuscan sun.

Bon Giouro!!!!!

Ron
La Casa della Scugnizzio

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RE: "Entitled" To Death - 7/30/2007 9:21:17 AM

LadyEllen

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Tuscany is full of Brits - be warned.

We have the same problem here. The solution, according to our leaders, is to bring in loads of immigrants to work to provide the higher tax revenues that will be required. Thats OK, but where are they going to live, and on which roads will they drive and whilst right now we have more than we need of the stuff, what water are they going to drink when we get back to normal? The country is full. And what's more curious about the immigrant solution, is that so many immigrant families, from the second generation onwards, seem more interested in what the state hands out, than in what they might contribute......

But neither can we go back to the days when people died for lack of money to purchase even basic medical treatment et al. Instead, I foresee the kind of citizenship I'd like to see, put into practice - you want to be a member of our club? Then follow the club rules or find another club. But the immigration solution only works, and the club rules are only worthwhile, if there are actually decent jobs and realistic aspirations here - which is by no means assured when overseas workers cost so little to employ and its more profitable to invest overseas. If I can get the deal together, I'm investing in Romania this year - where a truck driver costs a quarter of a British one and will do what he's expected to do, not moan endlessly about his lot. It doesnt matter how many or who live here and pay tax, if we're all taking in one another's washing.

E

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RE: "Entitled" To Death - 7/30/2007 9:29:12 AM

NorthernGent

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mercnbeth

Consider the outlook. From 2005 to 2030, the 65-and-over population will nearly double to 71 million; its share of the population will rise to 20 percent from 12 percent. Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid—programs that serve older people—already exceed 40 percent of the $2.7 trillion federal budget. By 2030, their share could hit 75 percent of the present budget, projects the Congressional Budget Office. The result: a political impasse.

To balance the budget with existing programs at their present economic shares would require, depending on assumptions, tax increases of 30 percent to 50 percent—or budget deficits could quadruple.

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20010728/site/newsweek/?from=rss

Sounds like a modern day Malthusian prophet of doom. In the early 18th century, human endeavour stretched to developing new farming and production methods. I'm sure 400 years later the Americans, Japanese and Europeans can get their heads together and come up with something to solve the issue of ageing populations and associated welfare.

P.S. I really hope you do post from Italy because the last time I checked the communists were running the show. 'Should make for interesting reading!

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RE: "Entitled" To Death - 7/30/2007 9:35:47 AM

Mercnbeth

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quote:

I'm sure 400 years later the Americans, Japanese and Europeans can get their heads together and come up with something to solve the issue of ageing populations and associated welfare.

NG,
It's good to see you have such faith in Western capitalism, as presently exists in the economies you identify, to solve the problem. No solution, and an apparent preference to align yourself with the politicians who share your faith versus taking action; but faith is important. Good for you!

It will be GREAT benefiting from Italy's social programs without having to pay for them. I'll remember to thank the communists in charge for the privilege.

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RE: "Entitled" To Death - 7/30/2007 9:45:52 AM

NorthernGent

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Merc, as you quite probably understood, I was placing store in the human ability to adapt to conditions, rather than any political system. The store is based on history and personal experience.

As for the capitalism comment, I think I said pretty much from the off about a year ago that I'm not anti-capitalist.......old habits die hard, I suppose.

It will be GREAT benefiting from Italy's social programs without having to pay for them. I'll remember to thank the communists in charge for the privilege.

'Your call if you plan on submitting to the will of the Italian Communist Party, I suppose..........anyway, the Italians thrive on volatility, so before you know it the fascists will be back in government and it'll be like home from home!

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RE: "Entitled" To Death - 7/30/2007 11:58:43 AM

sophia37

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I dont know where they guy got his stats for that article. But from infoplease.com I got these stats,
"In the U.S. economy, total government spending at all levels represents about 28 percent of GDP. Private spending makes up the other 72 percent....of the 28 percent of GDP that government spending represents, direct federal programs (programs administered by the federal government) represents 16 percent while state and local spending represents the other 12 percent. Of that 12 percent, about 9 percent is raised by the states and local jurisdictions, and about 2 percent comes from federal government grants.... Mandatory spending accounts for two-thirds of federal spending and is authorized by permanent laws, not by the 13 annual appropriations bills. These include entitlements, such as Social Security, Medicare, veterans' benefits, and Food Stamps."

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RE: "Entitled" To Death - 7/30/2007 1:05:10 PM

Petronius

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Adam Smith's notion of the "invisible hand" is a fundamental theory of capitalism. Briefly, it holds that society functions when individuals seek their own self-interest, without concern for the interests of society.

This is used by every multimillionaire who is laying off 10,000 workers to make a few more millions, despite the horrid individual consequences for the people laid off.

That's just good capitalism proclaim the people who see themselves as staunch pro-capitalists.

But the world turns on its head when poor people use the same law and move the same hand. When the poor and middle classes express their self-interest with things like Social Security the self-styled pro-capitalists whine like crazy.

Then the self-interest is denounced as an "entitlement."

Everything economic in capitalist society is an entitlement: entitlement to property, entitlement to investment, entitlement to profit, entitlement to Social Security, etc.

Only when the poor and middle classes focus on their own entitlements does "entitlement" become a dirty word.

Capitalism; invisible hand; self-interest; entitlements: What's fair for the big capitalists is fair for everybody else. Even if the big capitalists claim it isn't.

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RE: "Entitled" To Death - 7/30/2007 3:06:52 PM

Sinergy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

well the boom in china has some trouble since they have a large aging population as well and with the advent of Mao's one child per----they have some real big issues.

China has started to drop below a positive population growth. There are a few issues with this, but one of the most glaring is the abortion of female fetuses. Their birth rate is no longer close to parity, but something like 1.4 male babies to 1 female baby.

This will not really effect the next generation or two, but coupled with defining fertility in the third world, our population may start shrinking soon.

Sinergy

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RE: "Entitled" To Death - 7/30/2007 3:10:10 PM

camille65

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It has already had an effect. Many rural areas are encouraging the marrying of first cousins due to the lack of females.
Please, I wish some would look up what the policy actually is when it comes to bearing children in China. They can have more than one & have been able to do so for some time. Yes boys are much preferred but the tossing of female babies has lessened dramatically and the strictures for having more children have lessened as well.

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RE: "Entitled" To Death - 7/30/2007 3:24:43 PM

Sinergy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: camille65

It has already had an effect. Many rural areas are encouraging the marrying of first cousins due to the lack of females.
Please, I wish some would look up what the policy actually is when it comes to bearing children in China. They can have more than one & have been able to do so for some time. Yes boys are much preferred but the tossing of female babies has lessened dramatically and the strictures for having more children have lessened as well.

The strictures were basically increased tax burdens for having more than one child. While there was quite a bit of "child tossing," this was not as widespread as one might have people believe.

However, with access to modern medicine and abortion, the practice of aborting female fetuses since culturally, finding a man to marry one's daughter (dowry, etc) also put a major financial burden on the family. On the other hand, their culture stipulates that the male children care for the parents in their old age.

There is a similar issue in India.

Australia has already instituted tax incentives for people to have children. Canada has/is considering it.

While there are a lot of places in the world that show unchecked population growth, one of the growing pains from 3rd to 1st world is a dropping in birth rates.

Sinergy

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RE: "Entitled" To Death - 7/30/2007 7:18:20 PM

thornhappy

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Hi folks--

I've seen a few studies that say we could meet the SS needs of the future if we removed the cap on payments.

Around 1998 or so, you didn't pay any SS withholding after about $86400 income for singles. Not like I couldn't pay more, being single (wouldn't miss it). But a solution like this would have folks screaming about a "tax increase".

The Medicare/Medicaid situation would be more complicated.

thornhappy

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