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Model of Global Warming - 8/10/2007 8:26:30 PM   
CuriousLord


Posts: 3911
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Status: offline 		Does anyone know a decent, open source model of global warming?
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RE: Model of Global Warming - 8/10/2007 8:33:48 PM   
LATEXBABY64


Posts: 2107
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Status: offline 		it is like this billions and billions of years ago the dinosaurs were like hanging out then this big rock thingy hit mr planet and through our world a little to one side. so now just believe the earth is going back to way it was yep

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RE: Model of Global Warming - 8/10/2007 9:01:38 PM   
pollux


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quote:

ORIGINAL: CuriousLord

Does anyone know a decent, open source model of global warming?


Yep.

The good news is it's very high-fidelity.

The bad news is it weighs 6 * 10^24 kg.

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RE: Model of Global Warming - 8/11/2007 12:05:42 AM   
popeye1250


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Status: offline 		CL, yes, start with "increased solar activity."

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RE: Model of Global Warming - 8/11/2007 1:30:13 AM   
seeksfemslave


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Status: offline 		Model my woggle.
You get a lot of busybodies compile in "computor speak" zillions of guesses underpinned by scientific knowledge. Variables that can twiddled are included followed by a whole lot of twiddling  and then they believe can tell us what is likely to happen to climatic conditions over the next 50/100 years.

Economic computor models dont work.
ditto with Meterological (sp?) models.
so I say Buuull...sheeet.

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RE: Model of Global Warming - 8/11/2007 1:31:40 PM   
CuriousLord


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Status: offline 		The idea of a model's moreso to start to understand contributing factors and how they work together as opposed to accurately predicting the future- though such predictions, should they be possible, aren't entirely unwelcomed.

Google hasn't been turning up much.  I suppose this is one of those things I'm just not going to find for a while.

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RE: Model of Global Warming - 8/11/2007 2:37:11 PM   
lucern


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Status: offline 		CL, how's your university libary's collection of professional journals?

I can't say there will be an open source model available, as in a computer model, unless you mean the open-source qualities of peer-reviewed science. 

Using the 'web of science' (which one can only search if their university subscribes or some such) turned up over 1000 articles that mention global warming and modelling.  Of course, most of these were micro-level, analyzing the effect of temperature change on some element of an ecosystem, like:

Crabbe, M James C
Global warming and coral reefs: Modelling the effect of temperature on Acropora palmata colony growth.
Comput Biol Chem 31 (4): 294-7 Aug 2007 (Epub 2007 May 22)
or
Donner, SD, Author, Reprint Author Donner Simon D. Donner, Simon D. , Knutson, TR, et al.
Model-based assessment of the role of human-induced climate change in the 2005 Caribbean coral bleaching event
P NATL ACAD SCI USA 104 (13): 5483-5488 MAR 27 2007
or
Matthews, HD, Author, Reprint Author Matthews H. Damon Matthews, H. Damon , Caldeira, K, et al.
Transient climate-carbon simulations of planetary geoengineering
P NATL ACAD SCI USA 104 (24): 9949-9954 JUN 12 2007

Perhaps a macro-level model exists or is in the works.  It's not my area, but good hunting.

Edit: by the other posts, it seems a computer model was sought, but in any case, any decent model could easily find its way into scientific journals.


< Message edited by lucern -- 8/11/2007 2:55:27 PM >

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RE: Model of Global Warming - 8/11/2007 2:39:51 PM   
thornhappy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: CuriousLord

The idea of a model's moreso to start to understand contributing factors and how they work together as opposed to accurately predicting the future- though such predictions, should they be possible, aren't entirely unwelcomed.

Google hasn't been turning up much.  I suppose this is one of those things I'm just not going to find for a while.

Hi CL--

Large-scale models like this tend to be whoppers and run on a cluster of computers or on supercomputers.  The chances of finding on that runs on a PC will be small, IMHO.

thornhappy

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RE: Model of Global Warming - 8/11/2007 2:51:50 PM   
EvilCrimeLord


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From: FakeVolcano
Status: offline 		Computer modelling makes me laugh to some extent. I can understand finite element analysis of structures where there are clear rules as to how the model develops. Surely though there are so many factors in global warming that it would be hard to justify the results from any computer model. Only time will tell if such models are accurate and by then it will be no use to anyone other than to say “I told you so”.

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RE: Model of Global Warming - 8/11/2007 2:54:38 PM   
EvilCrimeLord


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Status: offline 		Is there a cows farting variable in these models?

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RE: Model of Global Warming - 8/11/2007 2:55:21 PM   
seeksfemslave


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Status: offline 		A super computor just produces doubtful speculative unproveable results quicker than...well a computor thats not super !
Simple really !

EvilCrimeLord: I think our attitudes are about the same lol

< Message edited by seeksfemslave -- 8/11/2007 3:01:53 PM >

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RE: Model of Global Warming - 8/11/2007 3:07:18 PM   
EvilCrimeLord


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Status: offline 		Yep but it keeps those clever scientists busy and more importantly paid.

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RE: Model of Global Warming - 8/11/2007 4:40:35 PM   
Real0ne


Posts: 21189
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Status: offline 		How about a really ancient one?

ask a good astrologer and they will tell you that we are heading for the water age.  which one is that aquarius?  seems their model is about right anyway.


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RE: Model of Global Warming - 8/11/2007 6:05:31 PM   
substobbws


Posts: 65
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Status: offline 		In another 30 years, will we be back to global cooling again?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_cooling

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RE: Model of Global Warming - 8/11/2007 6:31:01 PM   
Joseff


Posts: 505
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Status: offline 		Can someone point to a good computer model that can tell, with accuracy, what the weather will be like next week?
Joseff

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RE: Model of Global Warming - 8/11/2007 6:34:25 PM   
farglebargle


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Status: offline 		GIGO. Global warming is just a scam for the derivative traders to invent another trading market... They're calling it "Carbon Credits" or some such shit, but it's all just Wall Street Fake Money Games.



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RE: Model of Global Warming - 8/11/2007 8:47:01 PM   
kittinSol


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Status: offline 		Try and ask Sinergy, I think he's a bit of an expert.

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RE: Model of Global Warming - 8/11/2007 8:56:01 PM   
SuzanneKneeling


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quote:

ORIGINAL: seeksfemslave

A super computor just produces doubtful speculative unproveable results quicker than...well a computor thats not super !
Simple really !


Uh, no. Actually a super computer allows for spatial and temporal resolutions that are increased by orders of magnitude over what you might be able to render on a single processor PC. That's why all these fancy scientists use them, see, and how they get all these peer-reviewed results that all show that we are cooking our nest faster than you can say "fill 'er up".

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RE: Model of Global Warming - 8/11/2007 9:01:32 PM   
farglebargle


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Status: offline 		Yeah, but the output is meaningless when, for example, your raw temperature data NOW comes from the DFW airport, where prior to it's construction in 1974 it came from Love Field (Dallas) and Meacham ( Ft. Worth ).

Comparing historical Love and/or Meacham data to current DFW data is just silly, isn't it?



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RE: Model of Global Warming - 8/11/2007 9:01:45 PM   
SuzanneKneeling


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quote:

ORIGINAL: farglebargle
GIGO. Global warming is just a scam for the derivative traders to invent another trading market... They're calling it "Carbon Credits" or some such shit, but it's all just Wall Street Fake Money Games.


Yep yep, all those PhD climatologists who were developing these models during the 1990s were just laying the groundwork for the real game, which was commodity/futures traders making a killing on Wall Street (and giving the scientists a cut, of course) during this decade. All of science is a scam in fact, a liberal atheist plot to pry your Suburban SUV out of your childish, whining hands.

And other paranoid, defensive and delusional attempts to ignore facing the reality of our situation.

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