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Unemployment rates in the USA - 11/3/2007 5:21:56 PM   
Griswold


Posts: 2739
Joined: 2/12/2007
Status: offline 		I'm confident Popeye or any number of folks like him will pop in to tell me that the world is going to hell in a handbasket (which it may very well be), and I'm equally confident this topic will turn into a tirade of any number of people with the best of intentions using wildly innacurate data to "prove" their point, however....I'm quite serious in my search for an answer on this subject.

Just yesterday the jobs report came out that we've (the US) created 166,000 new jobs in the last month.  The consensus was in the neighborhood of 60,000.

Now, owning both a national construction company as well as a local one, I'm probably more aware of where federal and state money goes than most people.  As it so happens, I'm particularly aware that federal money has been pouring into state coffers for longer than 20 months for infrastructure projects (sewers, roads, etc.) and that the TEA (Transportation Act money) has been growing by 25% annually for the last 2 years, largely going to union pay scales (thanks to the Davis Bacon Act) which tends to get spent rather rapidly in the economy (God bless the unions), ergo....it bumps the economic numbers.

I personally don't think the unemplyment figures accurately reflect what's going on in our country, nor do I feel it accurately reflects middle America.  Indeed, I think they (the unemployment numbers) have been bastardized by every President over the last 30 or so years...hence my question:

I sure wish there was somebody, or a website that could tell me what the REAL unemployment rate (jobs created) was, based on formulas that didn't include changes made to same in the Reagan I, Reagan II, Bush I, Clinton I and II, and Bush II (1 & 2) regimes...ALL of which (I believe) have been incrementally adjusted in some form to reflect the numbers they wanted to see (or portray).

I believe the numbers are in the neighborhood of 2 - 3 points higher.

I wish someone had that number (broken down by each Presidency).

(Now....THAT would be telling).
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RE: Unemployment rates in the USA - 11/3/2007 5:38:17 PM   
sophia37


Posts: 1433
Joined: 2/7/2006
Status: offline 		The only thing you'll find is bureau of labor statistics stats. http://www.bls.gov/data/home.htm
As for REAL stats, today in the NY times I read where they came out with this months numbers but there wasnt anything to back up the number. I believe they said the numbers were made up, based on computer input. I was looking for the article but cant find it as of yet.

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RE: Unemployment rates in the USA - 11/3/2007 5:51:27 PM   
sophia37


Posts: 1433
Joined: 2/7/2006
Status: offline 		Aha. Found it. This backs up what you just said.

"Some economists saw distortions in the data. With seasonal adjustment factors removed, nearly half of the gain in private jobs came from an estimate that the Labor Department makes each month about how many jobs were added by new businesses, known as the “birth and death” model. The Labor Department did not actually find evidence of these jobs; it assumed they were created based on historical patterns."

Article here. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/03/business/03econ.html

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RE: Unemployment rates in the USA - 11/3/2007 6:17:55 PM   
Griswold


Posts: 2739
Joined: 2/12/2007
Status: offline 		Wow.

"A separate survey of households, also conducted by the Labor Department, presented a very different picture of the job market. It showed that fewer Americans over all were employed in October. The labor force shrank by 211,000 jobs, and 465,000 Americans said they were no longer working or seeking work".

(Now THAT's telling!).

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RE: Unemployment rates in the USA - 11/3/2007 8:15:32 PM   
HaveRopeWillBind


Posts: 514
Joined: 7/15/2006
Status: offline 		Looks like Wally World had to hire a lot of new people so they could get them trained as sales clerks for the Christmas Season. Don't worry they will mostly be out of work just after the New Year. There's always a lot of new hires this time of year. It's misleading since most are only hired to be temporary help.

As for the unemployment figures the government releases, as I understand their reporting method it has no relationship to the actual number of unemployed. They only report the number of people collecting unemployment. Since the long-term unemployed have exhausted that benefit they are not counted. The only real way to get a handle on it would be to take the population of the US and then subtract out the number of those under 18, and the number of jobholders. Then you might have something closer to the real number of unemployed in this country. It would still not be accurate since so many must work two jobs to get by and they would tend to artificially inflate the employment numbers. At least it would be closer than the fantasy the government reports.

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RE: Unemployment rates in the USA - 11/3/2007 8:25:28 PM   
SugarMyChurro


Posts: 1912
Joined: 4/26/2007
Status: offline 		Without offense, Griswold, you would seem to want to do EXACTLY what this White House administration has been doing for the last 7 years as a matter of policy - which is to find numbers that corroborate what you think they should based on some anecdotal evidence or possibly false belief you track in your head.

Good luck with that! Or maybe not...


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RE: Unemployment rates in the USA - 11/3/2007 8:46:42 PM   
Griswold


Posts: 2739
Joined: 2/12/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: SugarMyChurro

Without offense, Griswold, you would seem to want to do EXACTLY what this White House administration has been doing for the last 7 years as a matter of policy - which is to find numbers that corroborate what you think they should based on some anecdotal evidence or possibly false belief you track in your head.

Good luck with that! Or maybe not...




Actually, although my question was leading....I was truly seeking the real number.

And it's a number that I'm fairly confident has been less and less "real" since Nixon.

(But your point was well taken).

< Message edited by Griswold -- 11/3/2007 8:47:14 PM >

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RE: Unemployment rates in the USA - 11/3/2007 9:11:08 PM   
SugarMyChurro


Posts: 1912
Joined: 4/26/2007
Status: offline 		Well, I am sure you can google with the best of them, but here are my search results...

Here is the Heritage Foundation with what we are all sure to agree are phoney numbers:
http://www.heritage.org/Research/Economy/wm675.cfm
and
http://www.heritage.org/Research/Labor/wm456.cfm

CBS News via Truthout corrects those numbers higher:
http://www.truthout.org/docs_03/010104C.shtml

A look at Sweden's numbers, reality checked by the McKinsey Global Institute. This is about methodology:
http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/sweden_unemployment_2007_06.pdf

DailyKos write-up using those pesky MGI techniques and then some:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/6/15/82034/1813

And some Christian writer that thinks everyone else is a Pollyanna-ish devil in disguise:
http://www.exilemm.com/e-sub-realunemployment.shtml
(this last one is really just my sick sense of humor acting up)


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RE: Unemployment rates in the USA - 11/4/2007 12:14:10 AM   
subfever


Posts: 2895
Joined: 5/22/2004
Status: offline 		Ahh... more illusions to get the sheeple to jump through the right hoops.

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RE: Unemployment rates in the USA - 11/4/2007 5:22:13 AM   
Griswold


Posts: 2739
Joined: 2/12/2007
Status: offline 		Thank you :)

Very helpful.

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RE: Unemployment rates in the USA - 11/4/2007 5:37:06 AM   
sophia37


Posts: 1433
Joined: 2/7/2006
Status: offline 		What I think is so telling is the type of jobs created over these last 10 years or so. "service sector" is how they say it. To me, "service sector" means bottom scale pay. Even the Auto makers will now start paying new workers at the bottom, up to a top off at 12 dollars per hour.

According to the Times article, average wage per hour is 17.00. Personally? I know very few people making that much. I never have and I hold a masters degree. So the disparty in the US  must be growing. More Stats must be in order for this one! lol Not. lol

The good news is, Im not looking for a way to prove any points for my views. Im just a cog in the whell, and I try to figure out how to get by. So whatever. Im not running for office or trying to sway.

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RE: Unemployment rates in the USA - 11/4/2007 6:31:34 AM   
krikket


Posts: 1183
Joined: 11/17/2004
From: Washington, DC Metro Area
Status: offline 		This shows clearly that statistics can be twisted, turned and mis-used to suit anyone's purpose, and is the reason that i continue to work for a boss that i not only have no respect for, but one i loathe more with each passing day.  It's also the reason i'm sending out resumes for a new job. 

quote:

ORIGINAL: Griswold

Wow.

"A separate survey of households, also conducted by the Labor Department, presented a very different picture of the job market. It showed that fewer Americans over all were employed in October. The labor force shrank by 211,000 jobs, and 465,000 Americans said they were no longer working or seeking work".

(Now THAT's telling!).


_____________________________

"And the day came when the risk to remain tight in a bud was more painful than the risk it took to bloom."

by A. Nin



When your heart speaks take good notes.





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