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LadyEllen -> RE: Pakistan's Bhutto killed in attack (12/28/2007 6:20:18 AM)
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Terrible but just a matter of time.
Who gains? Who potentially gains?
For Musharraf I believe her death brings only trouble which he can do without. I see rather a scenario involving a few players, each of whom has to gain from the situation in general and her removal in particular.
Elements in the Pakistan military for a start; it doesnt make for willing allies, when one threatens to bomb people into the stone age if they dont help out in a war against those for whom they feel greater affinity than you. I would suggest rather, that such threats put people's backs up and combined with traditional loyalties, they might in fact choose to do contrariwise behind your back. But not openly of course, but via the anonymous members of those against whom one is meant to be fighting. In the confusion, one could get hold of power too and move the country in the direction one might prefer.
The terrorists meanwhile hope to secure power for themselves too of course, and to move the country in the direction they prefer - which may or may not be the same direction as the military would like. But at the least they score a hit against western ideals and against the idea of women holding any power.
And then, I also see the hand of Iran in all this. An unstable neighbour with the weapons they'd like to have is not an opportunity to be missed. What if they played a double game here? Supporting the terrorists and the Pakistan military, without either knowing that the other was getting such aid? Whoever comes out on top in the eventual conflict between the military and the terrorists, they would be friends of Iran - though I suspect Iran would prefer the military to win out as more controllable agents of their intentions. Indeed, what if Iran became the saviour of Pakistan by way of involvement at the last moment before it rolled into the abyss? World wide kudos for Iran, loyal allies for them in Pakistan, and access to all the nuclear know how they might need. And humiliation for the west in that we couldnt do anything to stop it whilst Iran could.
E
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