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Iowa Caucus - 1/2/2008 9:16:45 AM

nickymaz

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Joined: 3/29/2007
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Hey everyone;

I am very excited about the caucus tomorrow and I wanted to start up a thread talking about it.

The race is so wide open and no one knows who's going to win.

On the Democratic side it looks like a 3 way tie between Clinton, Obama and Edwards, but the Des Moines Register gave Obama a huge lead in their latest poll. The outcome is based on so many variables, especially the second ballot and who can persuade the supporters of unviable candidates (those with less than 15% support) to go for them. This could make it anyone's race. Edwards may be able to win it on this second ballot.

For the Republicans you still have a very tight race between Huckabee and Romney. This race has gone pretty negative; generally speaking negative ads work, but Iowa voters are notoriously sensitive and are likely to be turned off by vociferous attacks.

Success in Iowa depends so much on having an organization that can get your supporters to the caucus locations. I predict the excitement of this race will result in record turnout.

Furthermore, I believe the winners in Iowa will go on to win their party's nomination.

I'm looking forward to hearing people's thoughts on this.

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RE: Iowa Caucus - 1/2/2008 9:22:35 AM

cuffnspankme

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As the old saying goes "So goes Iowa, So goes the Nation" or something like that. We have worked hard to remain the first caucus state and will contiue to do so, if need be, in another four years.

I hope that the fact that we are having it this early proves, especially to New Hampshire, that you do not mess with Iowa and politics.

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RE: Iowa Caucus - 1/2/2008 9:29:14 AM

nickymaz

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Thanks for posting!

Yes, Iowa has a lot of influence in this. Personally I appreciate how Iowans take the caucus very seriously but I wish this process could take place in a state with more diversity, Iowa is about 95% white and the same is true for New Hampshire.

One interesting thing about this year though, is that there is only 5 days between Iowa and the NH primary, meaning there will be less time for the candidates to campaign. I think the winners in Iowa will get a good bump in the NH polls and the shorter time will mean that bump is more likely to last and that momentum will push them to win in that state as well.

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RE: Iowa Caucus - 1/2/2008 11:17:34 AM

sub4hire

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If you are on top of it you also noticed the Des Moines Register is the ONLY one with those stats.
Everywhere else has greatly different ones.

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RE: Iowa Caucus - 1/2/2008 12:23:01 PM

popeye1250

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From: New Hampshire
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quote:

ORIGINAL: nickymaz

Thanks for posting!

Yes, Iowa has a lot of influence in this. Personally I appreciate how Iowans take the caucus very seriously but I wish this process could take place in a state with more diversity, Iowa is about 95% white and the same is true for New Hampshire.

One interesting thing about this year though, is that there is only 5 days between Iowa and the NH primary, meaning there will be less time for the candidates to campaign. I think the winners in Iowa will get a good bump in the NH polls and the shorter time will mean that bump is more likely to last and that momentum will push them to win in that state as well.

White people aren't "diverse?"
That's funny!
Hillary Clinton will see how "diverse" S. Carolina is right after New Hampshire.
With all the Black people in this state she's going to be blown out of the water by Barak Obama.

< Message edited by popeye1250 -- 1/2/2008 1:00:50 PM >

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RE: Iowa Caucus - 1/2/2008 1:56:48 PM

Termyn8or

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Nobody is worth a shit but Ron Paul. He is not even the perfect candidate, but still the best we got.

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RE: Iowa Caucus - 1/2/2008 2:46:36 PM

nickymaz

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I realize that, but the folks at the Des Moines Register aren't dumb. Their poll had a large sampling of first time caucus-go'ers and independents because there will be a lot of first-timers and independants at the caucus. "Likely Caucus-goer's" are more likely to support Hilary or Edwards but in this race but with more and more first timers and independents attending it could push in Obama's favor as this poll indicates.

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