What's going on here ? (Economy)

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Griswold -> What's going on here ? (Economy) (2/11/2008 5:33:38 PM)
Bush is a fucking moron (that said by a staunch Republican {who will probably vote for....the other side!!!!!). (God forgive me). http://channels.isp.netscape.com/pf/story.jsp?flok=FF-APO-1310&idq=/ff/story/0001%2F20080211%2F1349612731.htm&sc=1310&floc=NI-mo2 He wants us to make the tax cuts permanent. The people those tax cuts are for are people who have extolled virtuously and voluminously..."I don't fucking need it" (I'm one of those people...and I don't {fucking need it}). I'm thinking "Ya know what George....you kind of fucked things (just a smidge) and we have a few bills to pay (uhhhmmm...only about 6 trillion additional since you showed up)" He says the economy will be fine in 6 months. It won't be...and it's going to get worse (trust me on this). Much worse. They say "they''ll spend it (the free checks)...the economy will improve if they do".... "If". That's the key word. I'm in the upper 5% of the (sorry...I had to say that to make my point) earners....I've spoken to my friends....and those that earn half of what I earn are telling me they'll pay their credit card bills. This isn't a blast on Bush...it's a blast on the real world...the real world is in debt. HUUUUUGE debt. *BIG MOTHERFUCKING DEBT!!!!!* (My bad....excuse me) And they're going to pay off.....debt. The bulk of the population is either going to pay off debt...or buy food. Food. Yep...that's what I said....food. Not TV's...not iPods...not things that will increase our manufacturing prowess (or our collected income or gross sales). Food. The reports out currently are telling us that people who got gift cards are buying..... Food. Not HD....not more DVD's..... Food. Milk. Macoroni and cheese. Top Ramen. Campbells. No one's buying "shit". Which is what they want us to buy. Shit. Stuff. And more stuff...."Buy....now....enjoy...go...buy more...." If I asked 100 CM folks "what are you going to buy with your Fed check?"...I'm guessing 92 would follow the trend with...."food". Or rent....or "pay the mortgage", or "my electricity bill" or something other than "I'm just going to go piss it away on something that they'll have to manufacture more of....because I bought some of it...and then of course...they'll have to make more"..... Nope....everyone's pretty much saying "I'm going to cover my ass"...which, by the way...so everyone's prepared....is going to fuck all of us...because we're a consumer nation....and so.... With all of that....I'm telling you...be prepared for a very bad crunch....a recession that's going to make everyone within earshot who's never been through anything more horrible than the 1981-82 recession....(and those of you that have...be ready for something much worse)...because every one of you...statistically....is preparing for what the economists are telling you *isn't going to happen*.... But oddly enough....the newspapers are telling us....you're a little smarter than that.... Which is going to kill us. Which is why the feds are going to spew a bunch more money on the American public in February or March of 2009...which is going to make things all the more worse.... Which is why I'm telling you now....put some money in the bank....because it's going to get really fucking bad...in about 18 months. (And now I'm done blathering....remember this post.....it'll come back to haunt those who didn't plan....) Who loses if I'm wrong? (And I'll be happy if I am).

Aneirin -> RE: What's going on here ? (Economy) (2/11/2008 5:44:15 PM)
How long till Bush is out then? When he is out, he don't care, he will look after himself and I suppose knowing what is coming, he will be alright, him and his cared for ones. Me, in my country, I am in the lower half of the economy, something which is not a definate, it can change anytime, but as I see it, stuff debts, food is more important, that and housing. The debts are caused by food and housing, not any other. Not pay the debts, which I will say, is anethema to me, if I can I will make good , but not at the expense of food to live. As I see it, the financial institutions caused this mess by making credit available to all regardless of their financial position, they are the ones to blame for their quest based on greed. I may be totally wrong on this, but it is my understanding. You Griswold as one of the top 5 %, I suggest you do what Mr Bush is doing, look to your own.

Griswold -> RE: What's going on here ? (Economy) (2/11/2008 6:09:45 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Aneirin How long till Bush is out then? When he is out, he don't care, he will look after himself and I suppose knowing what is coming, he will be alright, him and his cared for ones. Me, in my country, I am in the lower half of the economy, something which is not a definate, it can change anytime, but as I see it, stuff debts, food is more important, that and housing. The debts are caused by food and housing, not any other. Not pay the debts, which I will say, is anethema to me, if I can I will make good , but not at the expense of food to live. As I see it, the financial institutions caused this mess by making credit available to all regardless of their financial position, they are the ones to blame for their quest based on greed. I may be totally wrong on this, but it is my understanding. You Griswold as one of the top 5 %, I suggest you do what Mr Bush is doing, look to your own. 62% of the failed loans were for what are called "liar loans"...loans that were based on the lendees (as opposed to "lendor") false promises...better said...lies. Everyone wants to blame the lenders (and there were many unscrupulous)....but the bulk of the failed loans out there....failed because...the "lendees" lied. They bought 2nd and 3rd and 4th properties. With no intent of paying them back. Only to flip. It's going to get ugly...no question...but it wasn't the lenders that were at fault.

Aneirin -> RE: What's going on here ? (Economy) (2/11/2008 6:44:20 PM)
I watched a programme recently about the US nad the forthcoming problems, a BBC production. It was where a few Brit BBC researchers were hitching a ride across America with the waggon drivers.Everywhere they stopped they interviewed normal people about what they think is coming. One interviewee was spending on credit, food at Walmart, asked about debt, she said she was ok, then decided to remodel her house, so is now in debt. When asked if she could repay the debt, she shrugged and said unlikely.The researcher asked if she was bothered about the debt, she she was'nt, as she was to retire in a few months and would there be unable to pay the debt. I agree with you, it is the lies of those that seek credit, but it is also the fault of the credit agencies for not exploring the situation fully. The lady was aged, is it not plain that she might not be working much longer? I still maintain the credit agencies are at fault, as they have created a credit for all situation, educated everyone that despite their circumstances, money can be had on credit. This being fact, everyone has gone for it. If they needed to lie, then they did, at the end of the day, they got what they wanted and in the case of this elderly lady, a remodelled house and not so much worry about repaying the debt due to circumstance.She might get a poor credit rating, but who cares, she is elderly and unlikely to take out large credit sums in future. She has won at the expense of the economy. After all, she was looking after No. 1, herself. If I were in a position to have cash available, I for certain would at this present time be battening down the hatches as to my finances, ready for the storm that may come, those who are in that situation, I would advise do the same. If I were in that situation and financially secure in the storm, I then would be in a position to help others if needed.

TheHeretic -> RE: What's going on here ? (Economy) (2/11/2008 6:55:25 PM)
Ours will probably go into preventative maintenance work on the cars, actually delaying our next big ticket purchase.

MzMia -> RE: What's going on here ? (Economy) (2/11/2008 8:08:19 PM)
Wonderful post Griswold. There is something about Bush, that makes both the Clinton's look really, really, GOOD! [:D] Vote Democratic! It is the way to go, my friend. I don't plan to spend that BIG, HUGE check on food, I plan to use it to help pay off a credit card. Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Hawwwwww Getting out of debt, with THIS economy is the way to go!

Alumbrado -> RE: What's going on here ? (Economy) (2/11/2008 11:24:23 PM)
There is indeed, a problem with a society that persuades people that the definition of success is going deeper in debt than one can ever afford. The 'balloon' rate loans, combined with the inane idea that one could always move from one house to a more expensive one to another even more expensive (and somehow get rich doing so), the idea that the stock market gambling arena was an indicator of economic 'health', the corporate profit forecasts and upper level salaries careening ever higher...all running contrary to logic. The business model used to take for granted that there would be ups and downs, and periods of profitablity were to be used to prepare for leaner times... but that model was tossed away after WWII. Like the song says, "Don't make no sense when common sense don't make no sense no more".

idontknowdou -> RE: What's going on here ? (Economy) (2/11/2008 11:29:22 PM)
mine going to my student loans and other bills.

seeksfemslave -> RE: What's going on here ? (Economy) (2/12/2008 1:48:40 AM)
The point about these rebates, be they spent or saved, is that purchasing power is injected into the economy. Money saved does not "stop" it is loaned "out" as soon as possible. In fact there is a multiplier at work in the loan. ie more is loaned then initially deposited. I cant understand, and have said so before, how an economy can survive on consumption alone. Sooner or later the shit must hit the fan. So like the Scouts Be Prepared. dib dib dob dob

UtopianRanger -> RE: What's going on here ? (Economy) (2/12/2008 3:13:43 AM)
quote: I cant understand, and have said so before, how an economy can survive on consumption alone. Sooner or later the shit must hit the fan. Well.....There's a real stupid-ass theory that's been projected into the mainstream, that hypothesizes this mythical symbiotic relationship that does exist or should exist, between first-world nation-states and third-world emerging markets. What it basically says, is that first world nation-states provide design/engineering /the brain concept to the equation, and the emerging market/third world part of the equation supplies the labor/ manufacturing-base, ala the braun. That problem with this ill-thought-out equation, is, it doesn't take into consideration that not only is there not enough design/engineering work for the bulk of the population in all of the first-world nation states, but much of the population in those first-world nation-states isn't/wasn't capable of the design/engineering work in the first place. So what you actually have is the same people in the first-world nation-states doing the same design /engineering work they've always done - only now the bulk of the population that formerly provided the Braun/manufacturing base has all been displaced and now serves as a burden/drain to/on the rest of the population/economy of that first-world nation. But getting back to the quote line....Even if we drastically cut government spending, end/curb costly interventionist foreign policy, but still outsource everything and never rectify our massive trade deficit ---- Yes, were still in trouble....lots of trouble. A healthy, vibrant economy means healthy, bountiful production. It's pure logic at work. Now I’m telling you right now Seeks, in terms America and the UK….a vast majority of the regular posters on this part of the boards know in their hearts what I’ve said above to be true. They can feel it in their gut, brother….They know they’ve been hoodwinked and swindled---but they’re confused and they don’t know the proper course of action.[;)] - R

SugarMyChurro -> RE: What's going on here ? (Economy) (2/12/2008 3:58:59 AM)
UtopianRanger: The brain part of your equation can also be outsourced, leaving the first-world nation in the position of temporary consumption until ultimate economic collapse. Gee, any other cultures in human history come to mind? Any other empire wannabes overextended and underemployed? Too stupid - both the situation and the people that allow it. What's truly hilarious is watching the strident right-wingers huff and puff as if they were part of the solution when they have been bamboozled so thoroughly that they are now utterly blind to it and the fact that are actually part of the problem. Bear in mind that I don't think the U.S. even has a proper left-wing to its political spectrum. That's just how stupid we are! Y'all saw this one, right? ----- "Mortgage Crisis Spreads Past Subprime Loans" http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/12/business/12credit.html?ex=1360558800&en=88e730177728d99e&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss Still, economists say the rate cuts and the $168 billion fiscal stimulus package are unlikely to make a significant dent in the large debts weighing on many Americans, because banks have tightened lending standards and expected rebates from the government will not cover most house payments. ----- Gee, so what will that stimulus package accomplish? Hmmm... [sm=ofcourse.gif] Reverse Robin Hood, anyone?

pahunkboy -> RE: What's going on here ? (Economy) (2/12/2008 8:01:05 AM)
The ponzi scheme will go on another 20 years. We are good till then. I eat quite well thank you. I eat real food- very little is processed. I feel great. It isnt about money it is about using ones own resources wisely. THAT is something I as a head of cattle can do.

Griswold -> RE: What's going on here ? (Economy) (2/12/2008 5:49:18 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: seeksfemslave The point about these rebates, be they spent or saved, is that purchasing power is injected into the economy. Money saved does not "stop" it is loaned "out" as soon as possible. In fact there is a multiplier at work in the loan. ie more is loaned then initially deposited. I cant understand, and have said so before, how an economy can survive on consumption alone. Sooner or later the shit must hit the fan. So like the Scouts Be Prepared. dib dib dob dob Bud...you are so fucking smart, it scares me. (This post wasn't actually that good...but I've read your posts enough to know what you're saying...before you say it....I love your perspective!)

Termyn8or -> RE: What's going on here ? (Economy) (2/12/2008 5:56:23 PM)
Well Hunky you have come up with another one. You might not write all that well but I think your thinking gear is operational. When a person buys what they can't afford it is their mistake, noone else's. When "we" bought this place we were prequalified for about $75,000, and that was back in 1989. Wanna know what we paid ? $19,900. Guess what happened, it was paid off early and we no longer have a house payment. Of course we fixed the place up, but the fact is, we could afford it. It seems the trend is that people have to have as much as they can get, no matter what. It is a very materialistic society in which we live and everybody wants the best house. Well sometime that is not the best idea. Here we have a property that has quintupled in value, and it is paid off. Do you think it was pretty when we got here ? Hell no, we had sufferance tenants and everything, people breaking into the basement to get their tires. Space heaters upstairs. We solved all of those problems. Damn, I almost shot that guy. I see what others do. I have seen the ads on TV for $150,000 mortgage that's under $500 a month. I was taught to do the math. We used to do it by hand, year by year, and generate our own amortization talble for a given loan. We knew what our equity would be in a year, 5 years, 10 years and so forth. Our equity is 100% now. In 13 years. We have been looking at houses, those priced sub ten grand. Fixer uppers to be sure, but we can see the potential. Forget about selling, renting is what will make it now, now with all these people losing houses. It is a serious buyers market right now and if you got some money stashed, and have any faith in the US economy at all, now is the time to buy. The difference is that people do not think about the future. Yes the house of your dreams is $600 a month, but in five years it goes up to $900 a month. You might think 'hell, I'll get raises', but then with the glut of the cheap labor pool ever growing, you can't make the payment. And your new plasma TV with 24 months same as cash, guess what comes in the mail.The bill for the whole two grand, and in some cases they will not take a credit card, but you can apply for theirs at 30% interest. It's that, come up with the money or wreck your credit. Take your pick. You can't send the plasma TV back, hell it might not even work anymore. That is a whole nother subject. They build shit that breaks down, is damnear impossible to service and if it even is, it is ridiculously expensive to do so. Now you are using credit to get things fixed that are not even paid off ! Where do you think that leads ? And new houses are junk as well unless you specify the type of construction used. They will give you a bunch of sheet metal and sone styrafoam for a quarter million dollars, no problem. And it is all nice and legal. And when the house literally falls down, as happened to a family friend, you are just out. Many times the company is out of business but has started back up under a different name, but the result is that there is nobody to sue. So you have the choice of paying a mortgage on a hiouse that no longer exists or not having credit anymore. And without the house you will have to pay rent somewhere. Then they cut your hours at work, you don't get the raise. What do you do, buy a printing press ? I know someone who did, did not work out all that well. He did ten years in the pen for printing $300,000 of queer. He was making more than that legally ! The forces behind the shape of the US economy are very foreign to us. I underestand it to some extent but not all of it. Their goals are foreign to us, and that makes it very hard to figure out their actions, Gotta go, be back. Got people. T

popeye1250 -> RE: What's going on here ? (Economy) (2/12/2008 6:00:02 PM)
Look on the bright side, with all the "outsourcing" that's been done there won't be any lay-offs in this country because we don't make anything here anymore. And if a lot of those multi-national companies go out of business who cares besides their stockholders? That's why I say don't buy anything from the pricks. Don't give them any of your money. Fuck 'em, now we can put the boots to them!

MzMia -> RE: What's going on here ? (Economy) (2/12/2008 6:02:20 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: seeksfemslave The point about these rebates, be they spent or saved, is that purchasing power is injected into the economy. Money saved does not "stop" it is loaned "out" as soon as possible. In fact there is a multiplier at work in the loan. ie more is loaned then initially deposited. I cant understand, and have said so before, how an economy can survive on consumption alone. Sooner or later the shit must hit the fan. So like the Scouts Be Prepared. dib dib dob dob Oh I agree, and have said so for years. We are going downhill faster than a sled. How the hell is that REBATE going to help or change our economy?

Griswold -> RE: What's going on here ? (Economy) (2/12/2008 6:55:07 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Aneirin I know what you're posting isn't what you think...so I'll make my comments within yours....(against "theirs"). I watched a programme recently about the US and the forthcoming problems, a BBC production. It was where a few Brit BBC researchers were hitching a ride across America with the wagon drivers. Everywhere they stopped they interviewed normal people about what they think is coming. One interviewee was spending on credit, food at Walmart, asked about debt, she said she was ok, then decided to remodel her house, so is now in debt. When asked if she could repay the debt, she shrugged and said "unlikely". The researcher asked if she was bothered about the debt, she said she was'nt, as she was to retire in a few months and would therefore be unable to pay the debt. I agree with you, it is indeed the lies of those that seek credit, but it is also the fault of the credit agencies for not exploring the situation fully. The lady was aged, is it not plain that she might not be working much longer? Of course...she can't...due to her age and therefore inability to pay an ever increasing share, be in a position to pay an "ever increasing share"....but, without knowing your age...I'll play this out as if you're 49...just like me. Your Grandparents were born of the depression. They knew what it took to survive. And they lived through Hell. Truly. This is not a brag...I'm truly not trying to impress anyone (I'm confident others will readily dispute that). It's part of the story....and required to make my point. I made $375,000.00 last year...and paid taxes on every penny of it. That's not the important part of the story. I spent less than $125.00 a month on food in all of 2007 and have a pantry that would be the envy of the known world (the bulk of which I used Sunday coupons to purchase). (I gained 20 lbs {something I'm working on}...and ate very well the entire year). As would be assumed by the above...I could afford any number of pleasures...and trust me...I enjoyed a few....but my cable bill was $12.00 a month...my internet cost me less than $30.00 a month. My electricity bill...in a 3,500 SF home, amounted to $200.00 a month...all electric. I've been to every local new construction site on weekends...gathering up every 6 inch piece of 2 x 4 for my cheesy wood stove fireplace...which heats about 20% of my place (and not very well at all....but it minimizes my electricity bill...it heats a section of my place...and I get up when it's freezing to fill it up), electricity being the most expensive available heat in my geographic area. I have plastic on all my windows. It cost less than 30 bucks for all 12 windows. I did it myself. Trust that I'm never cold. And while many will assume I had any number of advantages (which I did)....I spent over $95,000.00 (this year) helping other people with college, assistance towards heating bills for people I know in states that it costs something akin to 12 kabillion a year for heat, and other assistance I offered to close friends who weren't as fortunate. But I read my loan docs....fully. I was responsable towards the commitments I agreed to as to my future...that being....that which I agreed to for the next 30 years, i.e., my mortgage...which I committed to...and...my real estate has gone down in value. No argument that there were many, nationwide, who didn't "understand" what they were up against.... Sorry....that's your job as a homeowner. I have no pity for you because you opted for a dangerous loan that when re-adjusted....was outside of your ability to pay. You're an adult. No one lends money to teenagers....sorry....this is (your future)....your job. Being a homeowner puts you "in the game". Guess what? If you're a runner...you're expected to cross the finish line. The goal of course...is to place first. If you're in the game...in the race....I truly hope you plan on finishing first...because if you're sincere....that'll insure that you finish in the top 20. I'd be impressed if you finished in the top 74....in a race of 75. But (in some cases)....shit happens. Oooops. If you're just here to make sure that you're in the list of players....sorry...I don't have a whole lot of sorrow for you if you tried...but didn't give enough of a shit to even place. You very likely spend more on food than I spent on shirts....not my problem (or anyone else's for that matter). It's your job to finish first....or at least try, with everything you have. If you don't...I'm okay with that too. But agree that if you don't finish first (or 53rd)...it' stills a race for winners. If you didn't finish first...it has nothing to do with someone else's desire to "keep you down". "The Man" has a lot more in this life to worry about than you. (Unless of course, you're not paying him what you owe him). And in the meantime...even while I'll cheer you on...even dream of you on the front page (in fact...I fantasize daily of your success)...if you choose to lose...I have an apartment for you to rent. And that's ok too. Nothing wrong with that...but.... Don't hate the playah. Ko? I still maintain the credit agencies are at fault (I agree....these folks had an agenda....and it had nothing to do with you finishing first), as they created a credit for all situations, educated everyone that despite their circumstances, money can be had on credit (and naturally, greed set in). This being fact (and it is), everyone has gone for it. Yes....but no one forced you to take loans that you couldn't pay..or didn't take the time to read. If they needed to lie, then they did (indeed), at the end of the day, they got what they wanted and in the case of this elderly lady, a remodeled house and not so much worry about repaying the debt due to circumstance. I'm sorry...I don't have any great feelings of remorse for those who, as you describe...are elderly, young, uneducated, had a bout of bad luck (pick a dilemma)...and simply opted to pick a payment plan that they can't (knowingly) repay. Sorry....I'm lost on that one. You (they) bought it...you (they) agreed to the payment schedule....sorry again...you made a contract. A deal. I, and they...expect you to keep your word. You'd expect no less from others. (Read the fine print...they expect you to actually pay what you agreed to....oooops....sorry once again....you signed a contract...made a deal...I...and they...expect you to honor it). You signed it. She might get a poor credit rating, but who cares, she is elderly and unlikely to take out large credit sums in future. She has won at the expense of the economy. Unfortunately....but without question...true. After all, she was looking after No. 1, herself. Ultimately...you've clarified my position. If I were in a position to have cash available, I for certain would at this present time be battening down the hatches as to my finances, ready for the storm that may come, those who are in that situation, I would advise do the same. (Couldn't have said it better...or more concisely). If I were in that situation and financially secure in the storm, I then would be in a position to help others if needed. And...see above (re: same)...you can't be if you're a user (which you are obviously not). No one can help anyone until they've helped themselves....no less so than the person seated next you on a flight can't help you fit your oxygen mask until (you are) breathing normally (fitted with the mask)....likewise....you can't help anyone in adverse financial circumstances until you are financially reliable/capable yourself. Allowing others to take the blame for your circumstances, all while you had charge of your own future....is a fools game...and puts you in the weakest of positions.

Maya2001 -> RE: What's going on here ? (Economy) (2/12/2008 9:39:49 PM)
Your right this is just the tip of the iceberg I relaized this was coming already greater than 3 years ago and predicted the start would occur last year but I am expecting the worst period of this recession will be 3 to 6 years from now and will likely last for least 10 years, it will be nasty and will affect many countries

MzMia -> RE: What's going on here ? (Economy) (2/12/2008 9:49:39 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Maya2001 Your right this is just the tip of the iceberg I relaized this was coming already greater than 3 years ago and predicted the start would occur last year but I am expecting the worst period of this recession will be 3 to 6 years from now and will likely last for least 10 years, it will be nasty and will affect many countries I have been saying the same thing for about 3 years myself. The handwriting is on the wall. I am glad I am not the only one that sees which way the wind is blowing. Hang on to your hats, it is going to be a VERY, bumpy ride.

GMRTGS -> RE: What's going on here ? (Economy) (2/12/2008 11:10:39 PM)
Just wait the fire works have not even begun to start. I think everyone here understands that we have seen the last of the good times or even the best of times are now behind us.If you take the number one consumer out of the market,there is no other consumer able to or willing to take our place. We are in a count down for one major correction that will make the depression look like a bad appetizer.Many others both on here and in our group now believe as I have.We have very little time left. As soon as consumers have to actually pay the dinner check and are not able to pay by the credit card, the ride is over. the worlds politicians and powers that be Will try to slow, mitigate, promise, steal, borrow and sell their souls to delay the cascade that has started.We can argue semantics until the cows come home on who is to blame, it is everyones fault. Greed, over population, over extending the world resources the list goes on, in the end only those with the fore sight to take action now have a opportunity to survive what befalls us all. By years end, we will have no debt of any kind except for those reoccurring debts IE food and energy of which a greater amount will be coming from self sustaining by renewable means. We now live a frugal life and are prepping for the worst case scenario. Only you or I can save ourselves and our loved ones from the calamity that is ahead of us. May we have the intestinl fortitude to complete the task at hand even though we may end up being the lone survivor.

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