NeedToUseYou
Posts: 2297
Joined: 12/24/2005
From: None of your business
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I don't see how the problem is solvable especially in China's case. Efficiency and Inefficiency. While efficiency is great it does have one consequence in regards to manufacturing, and that is less people are needed to create the same amount stuff than last year. This is a real problem the world is facing, everywhere. Sorry, there isn't enough demand for the non-producing jobs in the world, and they suffer the same efficiency increases that production does as well. So, for example, 20 years ago it might have taken 20 people all day to produce 2000 widgets, if the factories I worked in were any indication it would today take 5 people to produce those same widgets, now. As far as non-produccing jobs. Stock analysis is much more efficient now than 20 years ago, We also don't need as many tellers at the bank, because of ATM's, Wal-Mart will eventually get rid of all the check out clerks once rfid, and those automated check outs are down pat, and probably just keep enough workers to smile and point archaic customers to merchandise. For god sakes we still have men driving trains down the track, what a waste, that job is surely gone in 30 years. I can think of so many jobs that will almost certainly be eliminated by efficiency increases or further developing existing technology in new ways, I could easily see half the work force being eliminated in 30 years.
I really think humanity has almost reached a point to where the production ability is out of sync with the jobs created by that production and unfortunately there aren't enough jobs in creative fields to make up for them.
I mean seriously think about it, in 40 years, I'd bet a 1000.00 bucks adjusted for inflation there aren't more than 20 people working at a wal-mart type store on all shifts combined. I'd bet another 1000.00 bucks that most major factories will have more robots than humans 5:1. The last factory I worked in it was about 1:1(robotic arms that glued,painted,welded).
Our ability to produce and process has reached the level,IMO, that we must consume in ever greater amounts just to sustain the need for workers. This of course is not sustainable as well, as the physical limits of resource depletion will eventually be hit.
Really the only escape I see that can sustain an ever increasing consumption based society and an ever more efficient one(in terms of producing shit) is one that is also very much into recycling those objects after use.
Again, we are not even close to making recycling even worth while, the damage caused by the energy used,pollution created, resources depleted to recycle all but some metals is far greater than the net gain of the recycled product.
I don't know, again, my overall conclusion about this planet is we really really really need an effectively infinite energy source, to make recycling feasible. As of right now I only know of one energy source that could be tapped and that is sun light.
Again, Unfortunately that technology is getting better by leaps and bounds but it's not there yet, and probably not going to be for a couple decades.
So, my conclusion is ultimately for the next 30 years we will see societal problems grow worse. It's all about energy costs ultimately. There would be plenty to do everywhere if energy were near free and resources therefore could be recycled nearly 100%, and we stopped burning oil and just made stuff out of it when needed.
I 100% believe the next few decades are humanities testing period as we figure out how to emerge from a entirely wasteful production(in terms of resources) model to a sustainable one, and have to figure out what to do with all these people that could be fed and clothed on lesser and lesser amounts of human effort over time(as long as the resources are available thus the need for recycling and therefore a virtually free energy source) Recycling is for the most part about the cheapness of energy, make energy cheap it becomes profitable to recycle(as long as that cheap energy is from a different source than that used to make manufacturing materials(not oil based).
I think it's a matter of human civilization not falling back into a constant mode of warfare(moreso than now) and spreading poverty.
Capitalism works if one can get this recycling thing down and therefore ultra cheap energy is required. In my view Capitalism requires recycling, the question is when will the capitalist realize this.
Ethanol is a joke, all of these replacement to oil are a complete joke in the long term. They are band aids on a rupturing wound. IMO, all research that is going to help long term needs to be based on collecting solar, or its derived energy sources(wind,wave). As these might as well be infinite in terms of conceivable human needs for the next 100 years or more.
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Unemployment soaring in China - 
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