Hippiekinkster -> RE: The Human Race 2 (3/26/2008 6:47:53 PM)
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ORIGINAL: philosophy quote:
ORIGINAL: seeksfemslave How likely is that ? ..one in a million chances happen nine times out of ten. In other words, when there are ten million chances for an event to occur, if the odds against a specific type of that event are one in a million then we will, over that long ten million series, see it happen at least once. Seeks, you seem to conflate unlikelihood with impossibility, which is clearly wrong. (with apologies to T. Pratchett) That has been more or less explained to him. It doesn't fit with his dogma, though. Some ID/ Creationists claim to have "calcu;ated" the odds of a certain chamical event occuring in the primordial ooze as 1x10^40 or some such silly number. This in the oceans, full of neat chemicals and bombed with high-energy radiation (UV, x-rays, etc.) These big brains just lose perspective when contemplating thse big numbers. 22.4 liters is about, what 5-1/2 gallons? In that 5-1/2 gallons at STP there are 6.023x10^23 molecules/atoms of gas. (This is just to give the deep thinkers here some perspective) Mass of water is roughly 1 gram/cc. Molecular weight of water is 18g/mol. That's 55.5555 moles per liter, or 3.346x10^25 molecules. In a one liter coke bottle. That's a lot of molecules. How many liters in the earth's oceans? Perspective. They say that the odds are 1x1o^40 for two molecul;es to combine into one more complex molecule (TY UV radiation). UH, but that's consecutive flips of the coin. Now, given the above rough calculations, and remembering 8th grade science, the oceans are approx 3.4% salinity (NaCL, MgCL2, CaCL2, MgSO4, and so on). That's a LOT of molecules. But we only need 1x10^40 molecules. SO, if 1x10^40 coin tosses occured every second, how long would it take for two of those molecules to combine into one? Sorry, no hints on this one. This is why Creationist "math" is bullshit, and why continuing complexity is not only inevitable, but initially took place in a very short time. Like almost as immediately as conditions became right.
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