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Termyn8or -> RE: falling dollar (4/1/2008 2:54:47 AM)
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We are in a recession, but it is a bit different this time.
Of course I have to clarify that, here goes. The clinical definition of a recession has not been met. But that is because of the way the GNP is defined. That number does not take into account how the profits of non-productive industries are offsetting the loss of productive industries. It has nothing to do with trade imbalance nor offshore outsourcing of jobs.
It is a simplistic number, generated for use in the pablum fed to the American people.
The fact belie the facts. There is not high unemployment, but that figure is wrong as well. They take it from the unemployment rolls, and there are quite a few people who have run out of benefits and are no longer eligible, therefore they do not count among the unemployed in the official figure.
Some of them are considered unemployable due to the fact that the one job they do has been outsourced overseas. And there is a larger than you might think comtingent of people who really are unemployable. We have a larger percentage of truly disabled people than any other country in the world. We also have more people who are just too plain stupid to hold a job. And then there are the others, who I don't even want to talk about.
We owe, and we owe alot. We owe more than our entire population can pay in a human lifetime. We owe more than our kids can pay in their lifetime. And the wealth to pay it will never be created. That is because our currency policy actually amounts to a Ponzi scheme. And it has been that way since before most of us were born.
We do not have the means to recover. Back in WW2 recovery was accomplished by war, we did not have to go in, but it was good economically, or so it seemed. It made work for the people and they were happier to be self sufficient. Even though every dime they got paid was borrowed, they still got paid.
Thing is back then they got paid to produce things, even though most was for the war, they got paid. The Cadillac plant was known as the Cadillac tank plant. They kept alot of the workers on. There were less Cadillacs and more tanks.
Well things have changed. We build cars, but how many are exported ? We build computer chips and some of them are exported and brought back in equipment with alot of value added. Why didn't we add that value ? We export some bombs, but that is not a mass market. And others really don't want our missiles and warplanes anymore because they are behind the curve.
If we can't export something, and I mean GET MONEY FROM SOMEBODY ELSE, we are screwed. Truthfully, you might not see it this way, but if our goods do not sell abroad, there is no reason for us to be in a world economy. Think about this carefully before you flame me, if we can't sell anything TO OTHER COUNTRIES we would be better off as an isolationist nation. That is simple irrefutable logic. If you always lose, find a different game.
It don't get much plainer than that.
So we can push out twenty or thirty CAT scanners a year, and they sell how many abroad ? And what do we make per, maybe thirty grand ?
But then the Chinese sell 5 million TVs here. Even if they only made a dollar apiece they are way ahead.
I do not even want to go into what we are heading for. The dollar will not recover, there is no way. They fixed it really good for us. The thing is to break the addiction. We will all have to live on less and spend more to survive, That is a fact of life, and it is not going to change.
Look for the "Made in the U.S.A." label on the things that you buy. Even if you could buy all American, you would not be helping the situation, you would only be hurting it less. And you can't do it. The last time I saw "Made in the U.S.A." it was on a box of paper clips. You can't drive a box of paper clips. You might be able to eat them, but I don't think you could quite thrive on them.
And now that we import over half of our food, that is also tied to the"value" of the dollar.
I am glad to not have kids, we are in for big trouble.
T
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