‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’

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SugarMyChurro -> ‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’ (6/10/2008 6:18:56 AM)
‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’ http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=8878 A June 2006 US Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations report on “The Role of Market Speculation in rising oil and gas prices,” noted, “…there is substantial evidence supporting the conclusion that the large amount of speculation in the current market has significantly increased prices.” ----- It's interesting that mainstream media speculation is that the price of oil will drop by the end of the year. Which is a forecast that I find very telling.

Termyn8or -> RE: ‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’ (6/10/2008 7:54:35 AM)
Speculation and true inflation have an almost symbiotic relationship. But let me define what I am calling true inflation. What most people see as inflation is not, it is simply the dollar value dropping. For example in the article they mention August 2007. They also show a gas price sign set at about three dollars. We know what it costs now, and there is no way the dollar dropped that much in that amount of time. There are other factors but I'll go along with speculation causing alot of the price increase. So speculation causes true inflation, and inflation, whether fueled by the dollar drop or any factor, feeds the desirability of investing in futures. A perfect marriage. And consider this, they trade in futures of more than just oil. Pig iron, pigs (pork bellies), any metal worth anything, wheat, corn, just about anything in the major market also has a futures market. They wouldn't be doing it if they weren't making money, and that money does not appear out of nowhere, it comes out of the consumer's pocket ultimately. I stated in another thread that there is a broader, truer definition of taxation, and this fits. Anyone who gains but does not contribute "taxes" any business. Let's say we chucked the whole mess and made such trading illegal. Don't even think about it because all the pension funds would be gone. We're caught in a trap. Any ideas out there ? T

atursvcMaam -> RE: ‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’ (6/10/2008 8:13:03 AM)
Shorten supply line distances. Balance the cost of supply and the cost to the environment. Work on clean supply and processing avenues closer to home. Get a bicycle, and use it. Consolidate trips. Carpool. Imagine limited supplies and work as if you might not be able to readily access supply. This will reduce demand, and speculation will go down as to the profitability. If your fear is of your 401k, then divest the more speculative parts. This may make tomorrows numbers look weaker, but may get you through today. You asked for ideas, i do not promise that they are good.

Archer -> RE: ‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’ (6/10/2008 8:58:39 AM)
See now you're at least on the right track as far as who is responsible for the prices going up.

atursvcMaam -> RE: ‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’ (6/10/2008 9:22:44 AM)
But it is so much easier to blame "THEM", isn't it?

popeye1250 -> RE: ‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’ (6/10/2008 10:50:37 AM)
Wow, I heard 40%. What can we do? Like I've been saying, don't fill your tank more than halfway!

Arpig -> RE: ‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’ (6/10/2008 12:20:25 PM)
quote: Like I've been saying, don't fill your tank more than halfway! What good does that do? All it means is you have to fill up sooner. Can't see the point

Termyn8or -> RE: ‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’ (6/10/2008 4:09:47 PM)
popeye I have to disagree woth you for a couple reasons. One biggie is that fuel goes up as money goes down In other words, imagine running low on gas and having to buy it sooner because of it. Then you are not happy to see that the price has gone up. This will not make all the difference in the world, but if you had filled up last time, you wouldn't need gas yet. Oh yes you are paying the increase mext time, what the gain is though, is that you effectively got a discount on the rest of it, which wouldn't be there if you hadn't filled up. It also gives you more time to shop around, unless you are picky about gas. Another reason is that the fuel cools the pump. It of course does so on it's way through the pump, but even better when the pump is submerged. Price a fuel pump for your vehicle and you'll see what I mean. You could buy alot of gas with that money. Plus installing it is a pain in the ass in spades. However on your side is Murphy's law. I had a car stolen once with a full tank of gas, I was not happy. Also they are out stealing gas these days, less to steal would be good. T

Politesub53 -> RE: ‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’ (6/10/2008 4:19:04 PM)
I think more investors are speculating in Oil, due to the risks of investing in property. It also doesnt matter much what we do in the UK or the USA to save fuel, prices will be driven by an ever increasing world market.

Level -> RE: ‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’ (6/10/2008 4:29:29 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: SugarMyChurro ‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’ http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=8878 A June 2006 US Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations report on “The Role of Market Speculation in rising oil and gas prices,” noted, “…there is substantial evidence supporting the conclusion that the large amount of speculation in the current market has significantly increased prices.” ----- It's interesting that mainstream media speculation is that the price of oil will drop by the end of the year. Which is a forecast that I find very telling. Absolutely, it's speculation. Prices don't skyrocket the way they have the last few days due to "supply and demand".

MrRodgers -> RE: ‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’ (6/10/2008 4:56:10 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: popeye1250 Wow, I heard 40%. What can we do? Like I've been saying, don't fill your tank more than halfway! Got a suggestion to stop buying from Shell and Exxon that could start a price war. Look I have written before kinkroids... "You know my feelings against setting up a federal banking system and turning paper into money for if we do that...we will forever be slave to the speculators." John Adams circa 1820's shortly before his death. Now we are not talking cash but stocks, bonds and the villian of the day...futures contracts. Capitalism is NOT an economy, it IS only paper trading or simply buying something and selling it at a profit...mostly paper.

Archer -> RE: ‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’ (6/10/2008 5:06:38 PM)
The NYME works like other tradeing floors, oil gets bought and sold in what almost is an auction.

Alumbrado -> RE: ‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’ (6/10/2008 5:08:25 PM)
Or a casino

UtopianRanger -> RE: ‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’ (6/10/2008 6:23:25 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: popeye1250 Wow, I heard 40%. What can we do? Like I've been saying, don't fill your tank more than halfway! At the very least, you bring back/reinstitute Glass-Steagall and regulate hedge funds. Personally...if it were up to me, hedge funds and futures speculation would be illegal. The next thing I would do is find/use the finest social engineers, and change the public's perception on how it views white-collar crime. In a case where shareholders and mass employee pensions are looted/ripped off, the public would view the transgressors in a similar light as a pedophile who raped and killed a three-year-old baby. - R

popeye1250 -> RE: ‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’ (6/10/2008 6:46:52 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Arpig quote: Like I've been saying, don't fill your tank more than halfway! What good does that do? All it means is you have to fill up sooner. Can't see the point Arpig, it doesn't work if you buy gas everyday. But, if you only used to fill up twice a month maybe like I used to, it does work. My tank in my Mercury Grand Marquis holds 19 gallons. I always filled it at Costco every two weeks or so. I'd use maybe a half tank in two weeks and then top it off to full the next time I went. So, I'd have a lot of gas sitting in my tank for two weeks that I had (already) paid the oil company for. I was "storing" all that gasoline "for" them. (I) was "holding" that gasoline, not them. Now, I just buy what I figure I'll need for the next week, maybe 3-5 gallons. (I get 19-20 Mpg around town here so that gives me approx. 60 to 90 miles. They only get paid for what comes out of their pumps. That leaves a "void" in my tank of anywhere from about 10 to 16 gallons of extra weight that I'm not lugging around with me which improves my milage and I'm taking the "Time value of Money" factor away from them by not paying for and storing that gasoline "for" them "up front.". It may only be 10 to 16 gallons but I have effectively put those gallons back into the system. But, I'm only one person. If my tank held 100 gallons that would be a lot of gas wouldn't it? Arpig, the oil companies don't "want" you to use less gasoline, do they? See any shortages? And if we had a president with any balls he could simply say, "Exon/mobil, you may no longer sell gasoline in the U.S. by presidential decree." Then, two weeks later,...."Shell oil, you may no longer sell gasoline in the U.S. by presidential decree." How long do you think it would take to collapse those two cos? Of course they'd "want to talk" but you let them dangle for a month or two. Or maybe three. Then, two weeks later, "Chevron, you may no longer sell gasoline in the U.S. by presidential decree." Sure, it may be "painfull" for a few months but we sure would have a lot of changes, wouldn't we? We're going to have to really hurt the oil companies before there's going to be any changes.

Termyn8or -> RE: ‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’ (6/10/2008 9:57:11 PM)
"We're going to have to really hurt the oil companies before there's going to be any changes. " Essentially correct, but not thought out. How would we do that ? Granted less demand might have a positive effect, but if push came to shove it is still their product to sell. Therein lies the problem. As long as the oil money runs this government nothing is going to change. Gas is four bucks a gallon, if by some miracle tomorrow we found a way to only buy one gallon for every ten we buy now, they would find a way to make it forty bucks a gallon. Instead of us telling them they can't sell here, how about they say they are pulling out ? They will become the biggest supplier somewhere else. Then they will do to them what they did to us, but in the meantime we lost. Another government may reign them in, not put up with this shit, but here it is way too late. Know what though ? Oil companies are fucking stoooooooopid. They are burning the golden goose. To explain; they have no fear of what the US government could do to them because they see China as an emerging market. Fact : China supplies cheap goods world wide. Some good, some not so good. They have markets and those markets depend on low prices. Low prices depend on low wages. Do you think they are going to be able to pay people enough to afford these gas prices. What percentage of people in China own an automobile ? Now from what I understand from what I heard and read is that there are alot more options than an automobile, things like Vespas, little scooters, things like that. I have also seen that there is traffic congestion there, something they don't like. Of course neither do we. China is a competitive market for oil, but not for gas, for other reasons. There are always going to be only a certain percentage of people there who can have a car. There is no way everyone could drive. But then industry's needs usurp the people's needs so that is what it goes for. Without oil there is no plastic, and just about everything they make is made of plastic. Or mostly. I wonder if acetylene and tar have gone up commensurately with gas ? Hmmmm. How much has floor tile gone up ? Yup.linoleun is the stuff they scrape out after the tar basically. Then they send it through some big rollers and then paint it. There is no part of the oil that goes unused. So there are other factors on demand, but they stay relatively constant compared to the demand for those things which propel and heat. Those are more seasonal. Demand for other petroleum derivitaves is not so volatile in the short run. T

SugarMyChurro -> RE: ‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’ (6/11/2008 9:40:51 AM)
http://www.salon.com/tech/htww/2008/06/10/the_price_of_oil/index.html Worth a read.

pahunkboy -> RE: ‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’ (6/11/2008 9:52:02 AM)
well then state pensions would be doing dazzling. as to big business cutting the person a break, no. YOU have no rights. YOUR rights do not trump the rights of the corporation, or the computer. it floors me that some guy is doing this to his own mom! [gram] could you personally rip off "mom" ?? no. but hide behind the corporation, hide behind the computer, and moms everywhere get taken. Dont touch the merchandise!!!

Archer -> RE: ‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’ (6/11/2008 10:45:14 AM)
"To a certain extent, the world is returning to where it was in the 1970s, when OPEC ruled the market. But back then, high prices encouraged the development of non-OPEC sources of oil and broke the back of the cartel's pricing power." A very telling line from that article SugarmyChurro. Seems that the idea of "More drilling in non OPEC countries" has worked and would likely work again. But yes the speculators made bad bets and moved to cover their butts and it effected the price greatly. But again more evidence that blaming the "Big Private Oil Companies" is scapegoating.

popeye1250 -> RE: ‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’ (6/11/2008 10:45:59 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Termyn8or "We're going to have to really hurt the oil companies before there's going to be any changes. " Essentially correct, but not thought out. How would we do that ? Granted less demand might have a positive effect, but if push came to shove it is still their product to sell. Therein lies the problem. As long as the oil money runs this government nothing is going to change. Gas is four bucks a gallon, if by some miracle tomorrow we found a way to only buy one gallon for every ten we buy now, they would find a way to make it forty bucks a gallon. Instead of us telling them they can't sell here, how about they say they are pulling out ? They will become the biggest supplier somewhere else. Then they will do to them what they did to us, but in the meantime we lost. Another government may reign them in, not put up with this shit, but here it is way too late. Know what though ? Oil companies are fucking stoooooooopid. They are burning the golden goose. To explain; they have no fear of what the US government could do to them because they see China as an emerging market. Fact : China supplies cheap goods world wide. Some good, some not so good. They have markets and those markets depend on low prices. Low prices depend on low wages. Do you think they are going to be able to pay people enough to afford these gas prices. What percentage of people in China own an automobile ? Now from what I understand from what I heard and read is that there are alot more options than an automobile, things like Vespas, little scooters, things like that. I have also seen that there is traffic congestion there, something they don't like. Of course neither do we. China is a competitive market for oil, but not for gas, for other reasons. There are always going to be only a certain percentage of people there who can have a car. There is no way everyone could drive. But then industry's needs usurp the people's needs so that is what it goes for. Without oil there is no plastic, and just about everything they make is made of plastic. Or mostly. I wonder if acetylene and tar have gone up commensurately with gas ? Hmmmm. How much has floor tile gone up ? Yup.linoleun is the stuff they scrape out after the tar basically. Then they send it through some big rollers and then paint it. There is no part of the oil that goes unused. So there are other factors on demand, but they stay relatively constant compared to the demand for those things which propel and heat. Those are more seasonal. Demand for other petroleum derivitaves is not so volatile in the short run. T Term, good post and you're essentially correct in most of those things. The thing is it's not just people in China who won't be able to afford it, there are a lot of people in this country right now who can't afford it. And right now it's pushing us into a reccession. In a way I hope it does go up a lot more because I'll sell my car and do without one. And (greed) at a certain point it's going to really pay to buy gasoline futures on the way down (puts). There is a hell of a lot of resistance here at $4 per gallon. I doubt that it (can) go up to $5 a gallon, the economy would crash. We (are) in a reccession right now! I'd rather listen to Warren Buffet than Bush or "the govt." any day! No more $12 per hour jobs, cos. would have to pay people $15-$20 per hour further exacerbating inflation just to get them to drive into work. Among other things the Depression of 1929 was caused by too much money in too few hands. At a certain point it will become a "national security" issue. But, we essentially have no president in the W.H. to do anything about it! The rich people got "their guy" in! That's why I laugh when people try to call Bush, " a Republican." He's not, he's a schill, a mouthpiece for big business. Big business has made out like bandits over the last eight years and The People have gotten further behind. It was never about "Iraq" it's about the "Contractors" in Iraq who are raping the Taxpayers. Do you think they're working for $12 an hour? But, they'll tell "you" to work for $12 an hour won't they? I believe in public hangings. When this is all said and done we're going to need to have trials and hang a whole bunch of people. This ceased to be "capitalism" a long time ago. Who would you trust more, Warren Buffet or George Herbert Hoover Bush? Greed will get you every single time.

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