Just happened across something for all the scientific folk in her (Full Version)

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Termyn8or -> Just happened across something for all the scientific folk in her (6/15/2008 9:24:26 AM)

Wow.

"
In the far distant future, billions of years from now, if humans are even still alive, we may have better technology to support journeys to other star systems where we can colonize new planets.  For now, we need to study the universe with the technology that is available without wasting time and effort on pointless tasks like sending people into space to do a job that robots could do better."

http://someknowledge.wordpress.com/category/science/

I haven't read the whole thing, and it wasn't what I was looking for, but I found it interesting. On certain points I think the author takes a narrow view, but oh well. That does not negate the whole thing. Hell I haven't read the whole thing. But the parts I did read seemed interesting.

I'll read it today. It prints out to nine pages.

Just something to explore on a lazy Sunday afternoon.

T




bipolarber -> RE: Just happened across something for all the scientific folk in her (6/15/2008 9:50:16 AM)

Well, that's one person's opinion.

We are establishing a permanent presence in space, and we seem to sense that our best shot at survival, as a species, is to tap into it's resources.

I remember several studies done in the early 1980's, which made the point that, with the way we are consuming the Earth's resources, we have to do so, otherwise we will simply run out of materials that can be easily accessed. Be it petroleum, or metals, or fresh water, or just elbow room, they will run out! The alternative is the "rapa nui" scenario... (Easter Island) Where the inhabitants ran out of food and living space, and killed each other off, and finally turned to canibalisim before they finally died out.

We have a limited time to move into a greater arena, before energy and materials become so rare, that we won't be able to muster the tech to get us off the surface. Probably, this window of opportunity is only several hundred years long.  

The Earth has finite area, and volume. Thus, it has finite resources for us to build and grow with... we have to leave the seedbed, and spread to new places in order to survive.





philosophy -> RE: Just happened across something for all the scientific folk in her (6/15/2008 10:06:54 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: bipolarber

Well, that's one person's opinion.

We are establishing a permanent presence in space, and we seem to sense that our best shot at survival, as a species, is to tap into it's resources.

I remember several studies done in the early 1980's, which made the point that, with the way we are consuming the Earth's resources, we have to do so, otherwise we will simply run out of materials that can be easily accessed. Be it petroleum, or metals, or fresh water, or just elbow room, they will run out! The alternative is the "rapa nui" scenario... (Easter Island) Where the inhabitants ran out of food and living space, and killed each other off, and finally turned to canibalisim before they finally died out.

We have a limited time to move into a greater arena, before energy and materials become so rare, that we won't be able to muster the tech to get us off the surface. Probably, this window of opportunity is only several hundred years long.  

The Earth has finite area, and volume. Thus, it has finite resources for us to build and grow with... we have to leave the seedbed, and spread to new places in order to survive.




...and i think it was Arthur C Clarke who pointed out that we have all our eggs in one basket. One extinction event and BANG, no more humans. Manned spaceflight is not a luxury, it is a necessary species survival skill.




kdsub -> RE: Just happened across something for all the scientific folk in her (6/15/2008 11:00:42 AM)

philosophy...I was going to say the same as you...adding that the article was not good science or reason .

But after thinking a few minutes I asked myself...Am I really worried about the continuation of the race? My answer was... except for those I love no I could care less.

Now if my love ones were on Mars and happy then yes I'd be glad we had a place the race could survive...But maybe I am short sighted but the odds of that are very very small.

Butch




pahunkboy -> RE: Just happened across something for all the scientific folk in her (6/15/2008 11:46:41 AM)

current irs does not tax money made from -not earth.

not to worry man wont be here 1 bil years.

i pose this question.  going to mars or out there, why do we insist on the astonaut return safely to earth?   the pay off could be worth more then 6 lifes.  we lost a construction worker for briges, towers, colliseums.  so it happens.  surely there would be someone willing to die for humanity?   [how would it be different then dieing in iraq?]




Rule -> RE: Just happened across something for all the scientific folk in her (6/15/2008 11:52:38 AM)

FR
 
Earth already has space battle ships and a couple of them have interstellar capability.
 
Humanity already has survived several mass extinction events (MEE).
 
Let's hope that our rulers find some brains, so we won't have to endure another MEE.




FirmhandKY -> RE: Just happened across something for all the scientific folk in her (6/15/2008 12:33:43 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Rule

FR
 
Earth already has space battle ships and a couple of them have interstellar capability.
 


Huh?

Firm




philosophy -> RE: Just happened across something for all the scientific folk in her (6/15/2008 12:40:37 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY


quote:

ORIGINAL: Rule

FR
 
Earth already has space battle ships and a couple of them have interstellar capability.
 


Huh?

Firm



...somehow i doubt a link will be forthcoming.........not even one from Fox News [:D]




jlf1961 -> RE: Just happened across something for all the scientific folk in her (6/15/2008 12:43:00 PM)

First of all, we wont be here in billions of years, since the sun only has about 63 million years to go before it goes "Kaboom!!"

Now the explosion will follow the sun turning into a red giant, which will mean it will have expanded in size beyond the orbit of earth, which would have been burned clean before that.

However, there is hope... if we dont blow ourselves to bits first.

When Arthur C. Clarke wrote 2001, he described the technology he actually expected to see in the late 80's.  The US could have single handedly built the space plane, the station, the moon base AND Discovery, except for one slight expenditure.... we were dropping billions into Vietnam and the cold war.

Granted, we had the shuttle, but we had the one that congress chose, not the one that NASA wanted.

There were two designs in the running, the one that we ended up with and one designed by a joint project team assembled from Lockheed, Mcdonnel-Douglas, and Gruman.  There design was based on the lifting body program and there would have been no external fuel tank and no external boosters, the drawback was 50% more cargo space, the ability to carry twice the crew into space, and a less than 15% chance of catastrophic failure.

Congress said no because it was 30% more expensive, and would have needed a runway at kennedy, not a launch pad.  When the contract went to Rockwell, Lockheed bought the contracts of the engineers  and rights to the design and moved the project to the skunkworks.

Now, at the present time, a 1/10 scale prototype is still  being plaid with.  Instead of ceramic tiles over aluminum hull, it is 100% composite, a ceramic/metal compound that will take 10 times the maximum heat exposure during re-entry.

Rocket engines have gone from the old chemical fuel flying bomb mixture to a H2Obased fuel developed by the Germans for the V1 and ME Komet rocket powered fighter. 

Now, we are faced with a really bad exhuast gas problem, at the beginning of the flight, the exhuast would be steam, your basic hot fresh water, nasty stuff we dont want around in the air or on the ground....

In the upper atmosphere, instead of destroy Ozone as the shuttle does, it would do something even worse, leave thousands of tons of Ozone in the ozone layer, really horrible thing to happen.

And they can now build it bigger, say the size of a 747, god forbid we put something into NASA's toy box that could carry enough cargo to actually PAY for itself.

Then there is the fact that, thanks to modular construction, 75 trips with this particular craft could put a 2001 style space station at the L1 point in orbit.  (The L1 point is the point in space where the gravitational pull of the moon and earth on an object is equal)   Which means a station that cant fall from the sky.  And god forbid that we would have the thing spinning so that there is no possibility of zero g related health issues....

And the lunar express ship seen in the 2001 movie could be built in orbit for half the cost of a new luxery liner.  Cost of establishing a colony on the moon would be a bit extreme, but the low gee environment would allow the manufactor of near perfect crystals for electronic components.

As for the nuclear powered plasma drive seen on the Discovery, that is already been tested, and one probe launched by Japan used it, we also have a working efficient ion drive.  Good bye liquid fuel restrictions on space craft to mars and beyond.

Then we have one last hurtle for Intersteller flight, but then some lamb brain scientist type discovered that particle accelerators created a massive gravatational field, which could be used to create an artificial worm hole if there was enough particles to create the proper effect.  We just dont know how to make sure that you end up where you would want to go instead of someplace like the inside of a star.

But hey, we put Greedy in as General Director of the projects, and let her pick her own staff of people to insure everything is done right and on time....

I wonder if congress would turn a blind eye to project administrators using whips on engineers and scientiests to get all this stuff done on time and on budget.....




DomKen -> RE: Just happened across something for all the scientific folk in her (6/15/2008 12:56:04 PM)

This is a tired old argument from inside NASA. The author is anonymous but odds are he works in or supports the unmanned side of NASA.

Basically the robot guys think we can do useful stuff with probes and 'cheap' multimillion dollar robots that move a kilometer a month, at best, and can take pictures.

Realistically all of our serious questions about Mars could have been answered already if we had simply sent a well trained chemist and geologist with appropriate tools and good comm tech to let them collaborate with folks back here. Instead each new question requires building a new robot and waiting for a minimum fuel window to launch it.

Questioning whether we should colonize the rest of solar system seems pretty moot to me. The question is when will we do it and which people(s) will do it.




Rule -> RE: Just happened across something for all the scientific folk in her (6/15/2008 1:14:59 PM)

Deleted for reason of me shutting up.




FullCircle -> RE: Just happened across something for all the scientific folk in her (6/15/2008 1:19:25 PM)

[sm=abducted.gif] I'm using this far too often of late.




GreedyTop -> RE: Just happened across something for all the scientific folk in her (6/15/2008 1:37:50 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: jlf1961

But hey, we put Greedy in as General Director of the projects, and let her pick her own staff of people to insure everything is done right and on time....

I wonder if congress would turn a blind eye to project administrators using whips on engineers and scientiests to get all this stuff done on time and on budget.....



OK,I know nothing about this stuff...but hey, I'll play along ;)




popeye1250 -> RE: Just happened across something for all the scientific folk in her (6/15/2008 1:39:32 PM)

There may be (some) truth in that.
If you look at geo history, human kind is just another in a long line of species to have evolved from earth.
If dinosauers had "intelligence" I'm sure they would have invented the concept of "God" and "thought" that their progeny should "survive" down the ages too.
I always chalk things like this up to my acid test, "in a million years from now, (or a billion or ten billion) who's going to give a shit anyway?"
The only reason we "think" that there might be "other intelligence" like us in the Universe is because we "want" there to be.
That's the nature of human beings.
The Universe has gotten along fine without human beings for eons and probably will continue to do so for eons after we are gone.
Is it any big mystery why we picture God as looking like "us" instead of a dinosaur?
Do I believe in "God?"
Yes, but I think "God" may be more "science-based" than be a human like visage in "white robes."
(And what's with the "white robes" all the time, can anyone answer *that* scientific question for me?)
And who or what made God?
One thing we know for sure, nothing is permanent.
Not even the Universe.
They estimate it's age to be 14-15 billion years.
Now, instead of sending humans into "space" they should be working on how to control or manipulate "time."
In the meantime, have fun.




jlf1961 -> RE: Just happened across something for all the scientific folk in her (6/15/2008 1:41:03 PM)

Domken, what the American public doesnt realize is the "new" spaceship orion project is a huge step sideways.  We are spending billions of dollars to develope a craft that is more like Apollo than anything else.

There is nothing new in the technology and there is no way that Orion will ever do what they say it will, since it wont have the capability of the shuttle now in operation.

What is worse is that the x22 shuttle program that was begun after the present shuttle went into production reached the final stage of small scale tests 10 years ago.  Like the shuttle design the skunk works team is working on, it is larger, uses no external fuel tanks, or boosters, can take off from any runway that can handle a 747 or larger aircraft and, most importantly, is COMMERCIALLY viable.

The biggest problem Congress ever had with NASA  after the cold war was that it was not making manned space flight a business venture.  The idea behind the shuttle was to actually be able to establish a human presence in space with large scale commercial facilities that could be leased to companies for zero gee manufactoring.

Engineers working with Intel, AMD, and other electronic chip suppliers have sent up experiments to grow perfect silicon crystals for the electronic industry. 

Guess what, as of 10 years ago, the process was perfected.  Anyone see a factory in space?   Wouldnt it be nice if NASA was actually given the backing to do exactly what it was intended to do, not just send up men to do research, but to develope space travel that was commercially and economically viable.

NASA was established by President Kennedy to 1) further the exploration in space, 2) to develope technology to build a habitat in orbit that would be a starting point for space based industry, 3) to establish guidelines for the commercial use of space and commercial space craft.

The US was set to have manned flights to mars in the 1980's a permanent base on the moon by 1990, a permanent orbital habitat that provided both zero g and limited gravity environments, and by 2000 the beginning of mining operations in the asteroid belt.  In fact, that was the plan as drawn up by the congressional committee that formed NASA.

Instead we have been playing around in low earth orbit for 20+ years, have completely thrown out the research into rocket engines that was done in the sixties and seventies, including the nuclear rocket engine that actually worked, safely the very first time it was tested.

The initial joint research program into nuclear fusion reactors that included scientists from NASA, MIT, CALTECH, GENERAL DYNAMICS, all those findings are now sititng in a government archive with nothing to show for the billions spent in the research.

The University of Cambridge in the UK developed the first working nuclear fusion reactor before us simply because we stopped working on the idea.

The powercell technology built for the lunar rover, at a cost of 4.5 billion created a nifty little energy source that, according to telemetry still being recieved by NASA from the rovers left on the moon, still has a 90% charge.... how many years AFTER the last moon landing?

And the American public is screaming about how we are losing jobs overseas, how our education system is in the toilet.   Then they ask why when we were leading the world in technology, research, we suddenly were passed by everyone else.   Even the Soviet Union, had surpassed us in some areas of technology.

The rest of the world is wrong, we are not a decadent society, we are an apathetic one.  We let our elected officials screw around and make things worse with half assed education reform programs that they dont even fund, and then wonder why things have not gotten better.

As I suggested in an earlier post, put greedy in charge of appointing people to run the country until we get the mess cleaned up.  Somebody screw up, they get to spend an hour with a hard as nails Dom or Domme with a collections of whips and paddles.




jlf1961 -> RE: Just happened across something for all the scientific folk in her (6/15/2008 1:42:52 PM)

Greedy, are you saying you couldnt find a few hundred tough Doms and Dommes to make sure everything gets done right, on budget and on schedual.

We could even televise the whipping sessions.




FullCircle -> RE: Just happened across something for all the scientific folk in her (6/15/2008 1:48:00 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: GreedyTop
OK,I know nothing about this stuff...but hey, I'll play along ;)


You're in her with the rest of us now, there is no escape for you. So get your clipboard out and be a scientist damn it.[8|]




GreedyTop -> RE: Just happened across something for all the scientific folk in her (6/15/2008 1:58:55 PM)

Jt,, I'm saying I wouldnt have a clue if they were doing it right or on time..LOL  As far as punishment..I'm sure I could come up with a few people to handle that duty ;)

FC.... um,.... how about I just put on a lab coat and glasses?




jlf1961 -> RE: Just happened across something for all the scientific folk in her (6/15/2008 2:00:43 PM)

Greedy, thats good enough, but remember, we televise the whipping sessions on pay for view, have to save the taxpayers some cash...




FullCircle -> RE: Just happened across something for all the scientific folk in her (6/15/2008 2:01:32 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: GreedyTop
FC.... um,.... how about I just put on a lab coat and glasses?

It's like you've read my mind and found all my dirty fantasies MsGreedyTop. 




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