Zogby: McCain/Palin 47%, Obama/Biden 45% (Full Version)

All Forums >> [Casual Banter] >> Off the Grid



Message

cyberdude611 -> Zogby: McCain/Palin 47%, Obama/Biden 45% (8/31/2008 1:06:01 PM)


Even if this is an outlier (as Zogby tends to be once in a while), the Democrats have to be concerned. They just had their convention. Obama made a historic speech and filled up a football stadium. 70% of Americans are not happy with the direction of the country. Only 30% approve of President Bush right now.

Yet the presidential candidates are locked in a dead heat around 45% each. Gallup poll has the race 48-42 in favor of Obama. But that's only a 6 point lead and before the coming GOP convention bounce.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews1547.html

To give you an idea how close this election is right now....
A flash poll was recently done in Colorado, a swing state. Currently Obama leads by 0.4% after the DNC convention. That lead of course is statistically insignificant. It is well within a margin of error.



celticlord2112 -> RE: Zogby: McCain/Palin 47%, Obama/Biden 45% (8/31/2008 1:07:33 PM)

quote:

Currently Obama leads by 0.4% after the DNC convention.

That's hardly a bounce.  It's barely a quiver.

THAT is what Obama's coronation ceremony produced for him?? 



SilverWulf -> RE: Zogby: McCain/Palin 47%, Obama/Biden 45% (8/31/2008 1:10:06 PM)

Nice bounce after the DNC ... ooops.

Sucks to be Obama.



cyberdude611 -> RE: Zogby: McCain/Palin 47%, Obama/Biden 45% (8/31/2008 1:13:56 PM)

Well Colorado is a red state that the Democrats are targetting very, very, very hard. Because I agree with them that if they want the White House they are going to have to either win Colorado or Ohio. If McCain wins both, the math starts to get difficult for Obama.

Nationally he got about a 6 pt bounce which really is not good at all. Typically you get a 10 or 15 point bounce in the polls after the convention.



DomKen -> RE: Zogby: McCain/Palin 47%, Obama/Biden 45% (8/31/2008 3:45:14 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: cyberdude611

Well Colorado is a red state that the Democrats are targetting very, very, very hard. Because I agree with them that if they want the White House they are going to have to either win Colorado or Ohio. If McCain wins both, the math starts to get difficult for Obama.

You need to check 270towin.com. Ohio and Colorado are only enough to almost catch McCain up. McCain needs to win all of the presently undecided west and southern states, unlikely, and one of the midewest and NE states, even more unlikely, as well as CO and OH to win.

The differences are stark. Obama needs to pick up 63 electoral votes compared to the 96 McCain needs. With Obama having such an enormous monetary lead he will be able to campaign hard in all the undecided states as well as making efforts against close red states. Even the simple threat of flipping a red state, LA and SC both look possible, means McCain will have to divert resources to those states as well.



cyberdude611 -> RE: Zogby: McCain/Palin 47%, Obama/Biden 45% (8/31/2008 5:08:18 PM)

You arnt looking at it right.....
Lets start with the 2004 map as a starting point. McCain doesnt have to win any more blue states if he keeps what happened in 2004. Let me just make that point clear. Obama needs to have a net gain of 19 electoral votes. That's assuming he doesnt lose any....and yes he is in danger of losing some. Democrats may lose New Hampshire where McCain is very popular. And they may lose Michigan where a lot of Democrats have a sour taste in their mouth when it comes to the Democratic party.

So lets talk swing states....
Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia has no more chance of goiing to Obama than New Jersey has going to McCain. It's not going to happen. I live in Florida and I dont care what the polls say, Obama hasnt a shot in hell down here. This was a big Clinton state and a lot of those Democrats are still pissed off not just at the Hillary snub but they feel that Obama refused to count their votes until it didnt matter. He will not repair that relationship. Florida also has a Republican governor who has a 65% approval rating and is campaigning hard for McCain.

Missouri is going to stay red. It's not a sure bet but Obama has never lead in a poll there and still doesnt even after the DNC convention. I also think Pennsylvania will stay blue. Again, not a sure bet but I think unless something happends I just dont see that turning. Same with Minnesota....I dont see that turning red. Again....not a sure bet but I dont see it switching.

New Hampshire should be interesting. I think it has a good chance of switching to Republican. John McCain won two primaries there. He is very popular. He is more well known there than Obama. And the polls are still in a dead heat.

Iowa has a good chance of going Democratic.

Ohio is a state where Hillary stomped Obama in the primaries. It has a strong grassroot Republican ground campaign. And the polls are flipping back and forth. This would be interesting to watch but I think McCain would appeal to the voters more than Obama so he has the edge.
Michigan will also be interesting but Obama has the edge there. However Michigan is McCain's best chance to pick up a big blue state.

So the Dems hope is hinging on Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico. New Mexico is a crap shoot. Colorado and Virginia havnt voted Democratic since Lyndon B Johnson. So turning those wont be easy.

So Im not quite sure where this electoral landslide for Obama is going to occur.....If McCain wins Ohio, Colorado, and Virgina and holds his ground in the south. Obama is toast.



DomKen -> RE: Zogby: McCain/Palin 47%, Obama/Biden 45% (8/31/2008 7:07:24 PM)

That's funny. You start off by ignoring the polling data from this year and fall back to 2004. Invalid and pointless. You then claim you know enough Florida voters to know Obama won't win. The fact is Obama is going to win the major urban centers, except possibly Miami. The question will be will the city turn out be enough to swamp the burbs and rural vote. The demographics are heavily in Obama's favor.

Georgia is unlikely to flip but is another state where Obama can run ads and make campaign appearances and force McCain to spend money and time. NC and VA both have very good Demographics for Obama.

Michigan will probably be determined by turnout in Detroit. I expect a massive voter registration drive by Obama's campaign will be the tipping point.

Obama will win Minnesota, probably by more than 10%.

LA will be decided by two factors. First is will the southern residents be in any position to vote in two months and secondly how the federal response goes this time. Another bungle by FEMA and LA will vote Democratic.

An often overlooked state that McCain had better shore up his support in is Mississippi. Traditionally the black population's vote is heavily suppressed but that isn't going to work this time around so McCain will have to spend time and money there as well. Obama will as well but he of course has the money to spend.

In short every state with a major urban center is at least in play and many states will likely see very different spreads than polls of "likely voters" will indicate. Obama is a big fan of Harold Washington and he and his campaign staff can be sure to deploy his tactics to win almost all the big cities in this nation.

McCain's big hope is that Palin is willing to go out on the stump and spout all the racist code words that the media would roast him alive over. She might get away with it by claiming inexperience and conservative media types whining that the mainstream press is picking on a girl. If she does that and her far right views get known amongst evangelicals without stirring up a liberal women's backlash McCain might just win.

However every woman I know is acutely aware that the SCOTUS is one vote from overturning Roe v Wade and that several of the pro choice justices are getting quite old. This year may see something similiar to 1992 when the suburban women's vote when just enough to Clinton to win the election. All the post election data indicates that was mostly married women protecting abortion rights. Ultimately almost all those old school feminists are going to vote to preserve their big victory of the 1970's rather than listen to a few soreheads and agent provacateurs.



cyberdude611 -> RE: Zogby: McCain/Palin 47%, Obama/Biden 45% (8/31/2008 7:19:29 PM)

I dont even have to read past your first sentence.

Obama is not going to win in the South. If Clinton was the nominee I'd give her Florida and Arkansas and perhaps even Tennessee and another. But Obama....now way. The whole South will stay red.

I know this state. I've lived here over 25 years and I know its voting trends and where people are liberal, conservative, or in the middle. Miami, Pensacola, and Tampa will all go heavily to McCain. Florida's west coast such as from Naples up to Sarasota and Tampa will all vote McCain because these people are mostly young, middle-upper class and Republican registration by far outnumbers Democrats in all those counties. McCain will win the rural areas in the middle of the state.....many of those people still fly the confederate flag.

So where is Obama going to win? Maybe Jacksonville, Orlando, and the old people in Palm Beach who dont know how to vote? The Cubans and Jews sure wont vote Obama. Forget about those groups.



popeye1250 -> RE: Zogby: McCain/Palin 47%, Obama/Biden 45% (8/31/2008 7:22:38 PM)

Obama's going to drop down to 0% when people find out about *HIS Bill* S-2433!!!
This guy is no Democrat!
He's a Socialist!



DomKen -> RE: Zogby: McCain/Palin 47%, Obama/Biden 45% (8/31/2008 7:24:52 PM)

Are you actually claiming McCain will win Tampa? Remember there are going to election workers preventing illegal voter purges this time. St. Pete looks like a lock for McCain but Tampa? Not a chance.



DomKen -> RE: Zogby: McCain/Palin 47%, Obama/Biden 45% (8/31/2008 7:28:02 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250

Obama's going to drop down to 0% when people find out about HIS Bill S-2433!!!

Have you ever heard the term "broken record?"



cyberdude611 -> RE: Zogby: McCain/Palin 47%, Obama/Biden 45% (8/31/2008 7:35:51 PM)

Tampa has a large number of military veterans and military personnel. Ever hear of McDill Air force base? It was the center of operations for the war in Iraq and CENTCOM. And I travel to Tampa often. It's loaded with strip clubs and night clubs and may appear liberal as you can get. In fact I think Tampa has the highest concentration of strip clubs in one area than anywhere else in the country. But the people there are for the most part economically conservative. And looking at McCain's past military experience combined with his determination to cut spending....I think he will do well there.



popeye1250 -> RE: Zogby: McCain/Palin 47%, Obama/Biden 45% (8/31/2008 7:40:40 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: cyberdude611

Tampa has a large number of military veterans and military personnel. Ever hear of McDill Air force base? It was the center of operations for the war in Iraq and CENTCOM. And I travel to Tampa often. It's loaded with strip clubs and night clubs and may appear liberal as you can get. In fact I think Tampa has the highest concentration of strip clubs in one area than anywhere else in the country. But the people there are for the most part economically conservative. And looking at McCain's past military experience combined with his determination to cut spending....I think he will do well there.


Cyber, McCain can start spending cuts by cancelling that Bill of Obama's S-2433!!!



NumberSix -> RE: Zogby: McCain/Palin 47%, Obama/Biden 45% (8/31/2008 8:04:01 PM)

(2) At the United Nations Millennium Summit in 2000, the United States joined more than 180 other countries in committing to work toward goals to improve life for the world's poorest people by 2015.

(5) On March 22, 2002, President George W. [Struck out->]Bush stated[<-Struck out] Bush participated in the International Conference on Finance for Development and endorsed the Monterey Consensus, stating: `We fight against poverty because hope is an answer to terror. We fight against poverty because opportunity is a fundamental right to human dignity. We fight against poverty because faith requires it and conscience demands it. We fight against poverty with a growing conviction that major progress is within our reach.'.

(9) At the summit of the Group of Eight (G-8) nations in July 2005, leaders from all eight participating countries committed to increase aid to Africa from the current $25,000,000,000 annually to $50,000,000,000 by 2010, and to cancel 100 percent of the debt obligations owed to the World Bank, African Development Bank, and International Monetary Fund by 18 of the world's poorest nations.
(10) At the United Nations World Summit in September 2005, the United States joined more than 180 other governments in reiterating their commitment to achieve the [Struck out->]United Nations [<-Struck out] Millennium Development Goals by 2015.
(a) Strategy- The President, acting through the Secretary of State, and in consultation with the heads of other appropriate departments and agencies of the United States Government, international organizations, international financial institutions, the governments of developing and developed countries, United States and international nongovernmental organizations, civil society organizations, and other appropriate entities, shall develop and implement a comprehensive strategy to further the United States foreign policy objective of promoting the reduction of global poverty, the elimination of extreme global poverty, and the achievement of the Millennium Development Goal of reducing by one-half the proportion of people worldwide [Struck out->] worldwide [<-Struck out] , between 1990 and 2015, who live on less than $1 per day.
(b) Content- The strategy required by subsection (a) shall include specific and measurable goals, efforts to be undertaken, benchmarks, and timetables to achieve the objectives described in subsection (a).

so in late 2007 we are half way home and a bill was raised to say, how we doing here and whats the plan?

Condi spoke in agreement with the UN proposal as well.

He didn't come up with this shit outta nowhere, he didnt show on the scene until 2005 so I suspect he is a lapdog for Arbusto, if anything.

LOL.

get a grip folks



Thadius -> RE: Zogby: McCain/Palin 47%, Obama/Biden 45% (8/31/2008 8:16:16 PM)

The citations placed are all well and good, and there is a huge difference between saying we are for fighting poverty and starvation then giving some money, and committing us to .7% of GDP for said project by making it law.

I know just a small thing, no?  When has Condi supported this bill? Or the UN Millenium Development project?  As far as I can remember the entire Bush admin has been against the Kyoto treaty (a big part of that proposal), and I can't see them entertaining the other treaties that he has already flatly rejected.  So sure the (5)citing is stating we need to fight poverty, but it is far from supporting the UN proposal.

If I am wrong please, inform me.



MistressNew -> RE: Zogby: McCain/Palin 47%, Obama/Biden 45% (8/31/2008 8:25:13 PM)

Fascinating that you chose the Zogby poll and not the Gallup, Rasmussin, or aggregate polls that show Obama well ahead.





Thadius -> RE: Zogby: McCain/Palin 47%, Obama/Biden 45% (8/31/2008 8:29:12 PM)

Gallup shows Obama up by 6, Ramussin shows Obama up by 3.  CNN is showing only a 1 point lead by Obama.

What were you saying about those other polls? 



NumberSix -> RE: Zogby: McCain/Palin 47%, Obama/Biden 45% (8/31/2008 8:32:58 PM)

If you read the actual bill on the senate website and not a redaction on one of the others excerpts of her speech regarding the support of the United States regarding the  UN millenium summit and the  Monterey Summit was was quoted in it.

Now I know you are bullshitting me, Thad.

The citations placed are all well and good, and there is a huge difference between saying we are for fighting poverty and starvation then giving some money, and committing us to .7% of GDP for said project by making it law.


Say we will do it but then not follow thru?  Why not clearly say no, go fuck yourself we ain't spending that kinda money on you in the first place.

I am somewhat certain you hold a philosophy closer to that last, than to your former quote.


Clinton and Bush committed to the shit in spades.....read the bill in its entirety, it is only a long legal page...........

I kinda got to admire a man that says put up or shut up to Bush.........

Ron


 



cyberdude611 -> RE: Zogby: McCain/Palin 47%, Obama/Biden 45% (8/31/2008 8:36:36 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: MistressNew

Fascinating that you chose the Zogby poll and not the Gallup, Rasmussin, or aggregate polls that show Obama well ahead.





OK....here you go....

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday—the day before the Republican National Convention is scheduled to begin—shows Barack Obama ahead of John McCain by three percentage points both with and without leaners. That’s exactly the same edge Obama enjoyed a week ago on the eve of the Democratic National Convention.
Today’s numbers show a one-point improvement for McCain, but Obama still leads 47% to 44%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 49%, McCain 46%. Obama is now viewed favorably by 57% of the nation’s voters, McCain by 56%.
 
There have been significant changes in perception of John McCain in the two days of polling since he named Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Since then, 49% of Republicans voice a Very Favorable opinion of McCain. That’s up six percentage points from 43% just before the announcement. Also, 64% of unaffiliated voters now give positive reviews to McCain, up ten points since naming his running mate.
 
Palin herself made a good first impression and is now viewed favorably by 53% of voters nationwide. Her counterpart, Joe Biden, is viewed favorably by 48%. While Palin has made a good first impression, the more significant numbers will come a week from now after the nation has a chance to learn more about her.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll



NumberSix -> RE: Zogby: McCain/Palin 47%, Obama/Biden 45% (8/31/2008 8:44:49 PM)

as the nation gets to know her.........

LOL three days ago the nation didnt know her from howdy doody.

Aye, Johnnie, we hardly knew ye.

American politics, it's shallow, but then it tries to be.

Ron



Page: [1] 2 3   next >   >>

Valid CSS!




Collarchat.com © 2025
Terms of Service Privacy Policy Spam Policy
0.03125