Why Obama cannot win in 2008

Why Obama cannot win in 2008 (Full Version)

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FatDomDaddy -> Why Obama cannot win in 2008 (9/3/2008 10:07:01 PM)
I wrote about this in a dying thread about Sarah Palin last week and thought it was more to the point on the actual election and deserved its own space. As I have mentioned before Barak Obama is not John Kennedy, he's Al Smith. There will be a Black American President this century but that President will not be elected in 2008. Obama paved they way much as Al Smith did in 1928 for Catholics but Obama will lose, just like Smith lost. The numbers just are not there this cycle. In order for Obama to be elected President of the United States in 2008, he will need a majority of white voters in the United States to vote for him and that is just not going to happen. Hillary Clinton could have probably beaten John McCain 51-49 give or take but in this election, she would have won the majority of the white vote but race worked against her and for Obama. Obama worked it effectively as well and in a positive way. Obama worked on the hard left and spoke directly to white liberal voters. Those liberal voters made him a viable candidate. As late as March, black voters were still with the Clinton's but faced with a actual, viable candidate of there own, they flocked to him. They were late to the party, but they came on local level and ignoring the black democrat party structure that was still with Hillary. White elected Democrats and many of the so called super delegates, feared losing their needed black vote and the abandoned Clinton or stayed silent. All politics is after all local and while Obama might not win nationally, they would be in trouble locally if their black voting blocks didn't stay in tact. So now the Democrats have an historic candidate, one that makes me proud to be an American, even if I cannot in good conscience vote for him but they also have a losing candidate. Oh and to the future sometime in the next thirty to forty years when that Black American one day does get elected President of the United States, it will be a pretty good bet that he or she will be a conservative Republican.

bestbabync -> RE: Why Obama cannot win in 2008 (9/3/2008 10:12:16 PM)
FatDomDaddy, great post!!!!!!!!

Owner59 -> RE: Why Obama cannot win in 2008 (9/3/2008 10:17:01 PM)
In order for Obama to be elected President of the United States in 2008, he will need a majority of white voters in the United States to vote for him and that is just not going to happen. You`ve said that various times before. Sounds like you`re counting on bigotry,Fat. Sad.

Termyn8or -> RE: Why Obama cannot win in 2008 (9/3/2008 10:38:04 PM)
Interesting, to say the least. We'll see in November. You may well be right, but there are other considerations. The Bush administration has alienated alot of people, and quite frankly, the RNC put forth the wrong candidate. Therefore you could be wrong. It makes little difference anyway. Obama wants out of Iraq on a timetable of days, not going to happen because we made a BIG mess. McCain wants us there for 100 years, that is also not going to happen, we simply can't afford it. The way I see it, taking in RL and all, everything, I give it 50/50 odds, so even as a gambling Man, I won't bet one way or another. I fully understand what you said, but what I am saying is that the people, a lot of people are fed up with this last eight years. Not to mention that McCain shoots himself in the foot when he says the economy is doing well. I find it hard to believe that neither side can come up with better candidates, but then I see why. They don't want to. T

cyberdude611 -> RE: Why Obama cannot win in 2008 (9/3/2008 10:42:30 PM)
That 100 years comment is taken way out of context. He was making a sarcastic response to an obnoxious question.

Termyn8or -> RE: Why Obama cannot win in 2008 (9/3/2008 10:45:40 PM)
cyb, but he didn't have the fucking brains NOT to make that comment in public. You want his old ass finger on the button ? See what I mean ? T

bestbabync -> RE: Why Obama cannot win in 2008 (9/3/2008 10:47:40 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Termyn8or Interesting, to say the least. We'll see in November. You may well be right, but there are other considerations. The Bush administration has alienated alot of people, and quite frankly, the RNC put forth the wrong candidate. Therefore you could be wrong. It makes little difference anyway. Obama wants out of Iraq on a timetable of days, not going to happen because we made a BIG mess. McCain wants us there for 100 years, that is also not going to happen, we simply can't afford it. The way I see it, taking in RL and all, everything, I give it 50/50 odds, so even as a gambling Man, I won't bet one way or another. I fully understand what you said, but what I am saying is that the people, a lot of people are fed up with this last eight years. Not to mention that McCain shoots himself in the foot when he says the economy is doing well. I find it hard to believe that neither side can come up with better candidates, but then I see why. They don't want to. T give credit to the american people. voting for Obama is the beginning of the end of the small business man! i truly believe we all understand the danger in that!

Termyn8or -> RE: Why Obama cannot win in 2008 (9/3/2008 11:01:51 PM)
best, could you clarify that ? How is it the end of small business ? T

cloudboy -> RE: Why Obama cannot win in 2008 (9/3/2008 11:18:23 PM)
Here's one electoral map. Looks like the election boils down to FLA, OH, VA, NC, AND MICH.

cyberdude611 -> RE: Why Obama cannot win in 2008 (9/3/2008 11:21:40 PM)
Minimum wage is the big one. Obama wants to raise it up to somwhere around $9.50 an hour. Which is catastrophic to the economy because many small businesses cant afford to pay that. Most small businesses and the mom and pop stores operate on fragile and small budgets. They dont get these giant surpluses of profits that the mega-corporations have. Can Wal-Mart afford it? Sure. But...not everyone is going to get that. They will simply trim their payrolls to make up the difference. The remaining workers get the raise but will be working twice as hard. Meanwhile you got more unemployment. That type of raise would also send inflation soaring.

cloudboy -> RE: Why Obama cannot win in 2008 (9/3/2008 11:36:31 PM)
Take heart, there's evidence to the contrary.

cyberdude611 -> RE: Why Obama cannot win in 2008 (9/3/2008 11:44:02 PM)
I dont trust the big companies. I know how they operate. If their labor costs go up, their profits fall, and shareholders will start putting on pressure and that is when you start seeing layoffs. And I dont believe most Americans are members of unions. And the unions that do exist are usually just as corrupt as the corporations themselves. This is not something that can be fixed by passing a bill or flipping a switch. I think people's attitudes in the corporate world have to change as well. And that's tough to achieve from a political standpoint. That isnt something you can legislate.

popeye1250 -> RE: Why Obama cannot win in 2008 (9/4/2008 12:05:14 AM)
As I've said before the Dems are going to be kicking themselves in November for not nominating Hillary. People aren't going to vote for a Global Socialist who wants to give their money away to foreign countries.

philosophy -> RE: Why Obama cannot win in 2008 (9/4/2008 12:12:46 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: cyberdude611 Minimum wage is the big one. Obama wants to raise it up to somwhere around $9.50 an hour. Which is catastrophic to the economy because many small businesses cant afford to pay that. ...i've heard the same argument before. In the UK when they brought a minimum wage in. As it happens it doesn't seem to actually work that way in practice. What appears to happen is the hit those small businesses take is offset by the increased spending power among the working poor.

ScooterTrash -> RE: Why Obama cannot win in 2008 (9/4/2008 12:15:19 AM)
Interesting take on the election possibilities, but my gut feeling is that it will be more of an election to lose than to win. Both parties seem to have made peculiar choices and going from what I am hearing and reading, I think the whole election will be determined by who is voting against who, not necessarily who they are voting for. You don't really hear "I am voting for such and such because......", you hear more, "I'm not voting for such and such because......". It really is an election of negativity, the lesser of the perceived evils will likely triumph. Which candidate that is however, I guess we will have to wait and see who doesn't get the vote.

meatcleaver -> RE: Why Obama cannot win in 2008 (9/4/2008 12:52:23 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: cyberdude611 Minimum wage is the big one. Obama wants to raise it up to somwhere around $9.50 an hour. Which is catastrophic to the economy because many small businesses cant afford to pay that. Most small businesses and the mom and pop stores operate on fragile and small budgets. They dont get these giant surpluses of profits that the mega-corporations have. Just about all of western Europe has a minimum wage above $9.50. Are you saying that the USA, which is the richest country in the world, can't afford to pay its poorest workers the same as its competitors?

Celeres -> RE: Why Obama cannot win in 2008 (9/4/2008 12:56:39 AM)
I think the whole minimum wage this is a tough needle to thread. At my last job, I was making minimum wage. Our raises depended on how many hours of work someone has done. Typically, it would take about a year working part-time to get the first 5% raise. Then, the minimum wage was raised and someone newly hired, made the exact I did, after working that whole year. My "raise" was actually "taken away". Just as a lot of people would lose out because a "minimum wage" hike isn't across the board. I personally would like to know what can be done about that instead of just simply raising the min. wage to some arbitrary number. As for why Obama can't win in 2008, I would like to delay my judgment until November. Obama's most recent poll has him at a 8-point lead at 50-42 before Gov. Palin's speech. He had scored some extra points from independents after his speech last week. I wonder what will happen tomorrow night when McCain gives his acceptance speech.

cyberdude611 -> RE: Why Obama cannot win in 2008 (9/4/2008 12:57:57 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: meatcleaver quote: ORIGINAL: cyberdude611 Minimum wage is the big one. Obama wants to raise it up to somwhere around $9.50 an hour. Which is catastrophic to the economy because many small businesses cant afford to pay that. Most small businesses and the mom and pop stores operate on fragile and small budgets. They dont get these giant surpluses of profits that the mega-corporations have. Just about all of western Europe has a minimum wage above $9.50. Are you saying that the USA, which is the richest country in the world, can't afford to pay its poorest workers the same as its competitors? Government isnt the biggest problem in this situation. Corporations disagree that Americans make too little. That's why they send jobs over to China for a worker who will work 60 hour weeks for $2 an hour.

cyberdude611 -> RE: Why Obama cannot win in 2008 (9/4/2008 1:02:13 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Celeres As for why Obama can't win in 2008, I would like to delay my judgment until November. Obama's most recent poll has him at a 8-point lead at 50-42 before Gov. Palin's speech. He had scored some extra points from independents after his speech last week. I wonder what will happen tomorrow night when McCain gives his acceptance speech. Actually it fell back to 49-43 on Wednesday. But these polls are delayed. We wont know the effect of Palin's speech until probably Saturday since it takes the pollsters a few days to survey a large enough sample. Wont have the full effect of McCain's speech until Monday. It took till the following Tuesday before Obama's bounce showed up in the polls. So we wont know until next Tuesday the effect the RNC Convention has on the polls.

meatcleaver -> RE: Why Obama cannot win in 2008 (9/4/2008 1:03:18 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: cyberdude611 quote: ORIGINAL: meatcleaver quote: ORIGINAL: cyberdude611 Minimum wage is the big one. Obama wants to raise it up to somwhere around $9.50 an hour. Which is catastrophic to the economy because many small businesses cant afford to pay that. Most small businesses and the mom and pop stores operate on fragile and small budgets. They dont get these giant surpluses of profits that the mega-corporations have. Just about all of western Europe has a minimum wage above $9.50. Are you saying that the USA, which is the richest country in the world, can't afford to pay its poorest workers the same as its competitors? Government isnt the biggest problem in this situation. Corporations disagree that Americans make too little. That's why they send jobs over to China for a worker who will work 60 hour weeks for $2 an hour. I forgot, after 8 years of Bush the US economy is crumbling and its rich are wearing hair shirts. What we say in Europe is, if a business can't afford to pay its workers a decent wage, it isn't a business. I bet some of those American corporations are in Europe and will paying their European workers more than American workers because they can't get away with paying less. Businesses will pay their workers as little as they have to, of course they cry poverty.

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