Are there really 7.5 weeks left? (Full Version)

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Thadius -> Are there really 7.5 weeks left? (9/12/2008 12:53:56 PM)

An interesting point was brought up by my professor today, and I figured I would post it here with my take on it.

We were discussing how changes in technology, laws, and the media are going to play a role in the big election this Nov.
A couple of points being about how quick the news cycles are today, the influence the blogosphere is having, and the advent of early voting in many states around the nation.

This got me to thinking, with all of the early voting that is going to occur, do either of the major candidates have until Nov 4th to close the deal?  In all actuality it is possible that 40-50% of votes in many places could be cast by the second week of Oct.

With the quick turn around of news stories, and the way some of these stories are further galvanizing the electorate, what is to stop folks from voting early?  Absolutely nothing.  What is more telling is that if these folks get really upset at either candidate or even the media, it may even encourage them to do so, and then tune it out until the polls close.

What do you guys think?



subtee -> RE: Are there really 7.5 weeks left? (9/12/2008 12:55:36 PM)

What class, if I may ask?



Vendaval -> RE: Are there really 7.5 weeks left? (9/12/2008 1:02:40 PM)

Good day Thadius,
 
One of the major changes I have been noting and posting about here are the changes in this election due to New Media and the shaping of public perception.
 
Several people I know prefer voting absentee to avoid dealing with long lines at the polls or because they have mobility issues.
 
Personally, I like going through the whole process.  I feel more a part of the local and national community by the face to face interaction with the volunteers, usually senior citizens.  We also see many younger voters here because of all the college students.



Thadius -> RE: Are there really 7.5 weeks left? (9/12/2008 1:07:46 PM)

It is part of an Honors Colloquy on Ethics, American government, and the current election.  I is doin my bestest to edumicate myself as I chase this degree in Poli Sci... [;)] 

It's a very cool environment, basicly we (students and the professor) get together for coffee and have an old fashioned brain storming chat session focusing on all of the above (with the prof steering the course in a direction he feels gets to the issues at hand).

Which also explains me extra interest in picking the minds of those around here... I am a selfish prick, as I have proclaimed before.

Edited to add:

The funnier question and answer would be what course I am taking for the sociology req. [8D]



SilverMark -> RE: Are there really 7.5 weeks left? (9/12/2008 1:21:18 PM)

Well, the numbers voting prior to the election day is growing, In My area it has to do with the long lines and in some areas there are problems with challenges to votes etc. old, heated political rivalries,the number of older folks who have issues in transportation  Myself, I would miss the trip to the polls, it was always a big day where I grew up due to My family's involvment in politics. A "rooting interest" for some of the locals I knew and the party I was basically raised in.
I would only assume that those who do vote early would vote the same no matter the latest news, scandal or rumor so perhaps the speed of information has less effect...strictly an assumption. What did your class come up with?



Thadius -> RE: Are there really 7.5 weeks left? (9/12/2008 1:32:07 PM)

Believe it or not, most of us felt that the information overload would be too much for most average members of the electorate, and that yes they might choose to opt out of the pomp and circumstance of "election day", as they figured any and all information would be available about all involved by the time they were eligible to vote.  Pardon the run on.

The consensus was that urban sprall, unfamiliar locations, and the increasingly negative campaigns of both sides and their pundants would lead to early or absentee voting, or even perhaps in a minority turn people off of the "hassle".  The past 2 weeks have been very telling, as almost every story that comes out, has had a correction or redaction that followed.  This is becoming the norm not the exception, and thus push people further and further from the new gathering they would traditionally do during this time.  We left room for the die-hards on both sides, however those that were inspired to register because of a perceived "post-partisan" messenger seem to be losing faith in that messenger being able to maintain that position.

Just a little glimpse into what was discussed and determined by a few minds that enjoy this sort of thing.



bipolarber -> RE: Are there really 7.5 weeks left? (9/12/2008 1:40:05 PM)

I really doubt that "information overload" is a huge problem. It's not like a "blipvert" from the old Max Headroom series...

Generally, I think the vast majority of voters make their minds up early on, and they stick with it. Anything else that comes up, they just consider to be "BS politics" (campaign lies) and ignore the info that doesn't fit their world view... it's only the poor slobs like you and me and a few others, Thadius, who even TRY to pay attention to this stuff.



celticlord2112 -> RE: Are there really 7.5 weeks left? (9/12/2008 1:59:02 PM)

quote:

Believe it or not, most of us felt that the information overload would be too much for most average members of the electorate, and that yes they might choose to opt out of the pomp and circumstance of "election day", as they figured any and all information would be available about all involved by the time they were eligible to vote. Pardon the run on.

While your point about information overload is well taken, I am curious how you conclude that leads to early voting, as opposed to merely tuning out the rest of the election cycle and voting on Election Day as per usual, as a matter of (perhaps) routine.

Also, how do you support a hypothesis that early and absentee voting would be a deciding factor in the election?



Thadius -> RE: Are there really 7.5 weeks left? (9/12/2008 2:19:33 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: celticlord2112

quote:

Believe it or not, most of us felt that the information overload would be too much for most average members of the electorate, and that yes they might choose to opt out of the pomp and circumstance of "election day", as they figured any and all information would be available about all involved by the time they were eligible to vote. Pardon the run on.

While your point about information overload is well taken, I am curious how you conclude that leads to early voting, as opposed to merely tuning out the rest of the election cycle and voting on Election Day as per usual, as a matter of (perhaps) routine.

Also, how do you support a hypothesis that early and absentee voting would be a deciding factor in the election?



As I stated this was the discussion today, nothing is stated as fact, only as a running theory and something we are going to follow.  How does one come up with a thesis?  One first must put forth an idea for consideration , gather data, weigh that data against the theory or proposed trend, and come to a conclussion based on the facts even if the trend is not supported.  Therefore this is something that we will be watching, debating and the conclussion will be based on fact not opinion.  Nothing official yet, just discussion.

We were suggesting that it may lead to early voting by those that have made up their minds or will by the time they are able to vote early.  We were projecting that as the last couple of elections have shown and the trend for more states to allow it, that early voting will increase again this election, part of which will be based on the information overload, not entirely.

As to your final question, if this election is as close as the past couple, or as close as some folks are projecting, then it would only take an absentee or early vote turnout of 10% of those that will  be voting to be a deciding factor, and we know from empirical data that 10% is a very conservative number of those that will vote absentee or early.  There are now 23 states that allow early voting, and 25 states that allow absentee voting without witness or notary being required.

Just some observations. 



subtee -> RE: Are there really 7.5 weeks left? (9/12/2008 2:30:38 PM)

Your class sounds very cool and like something I would dig.

(Well, except for the talking part.)



popeye1250 -> RE: Are there really 7.5 weeks left? (9/12/2008 2:55:12 PM)

I don't think it's going to be much of an election.
McCain will probably win in a landslide.
Of course I'll be voting for the Constitution Party candidate.
My brother up in Boston who's a *BIG* supporter of Hillary said he and a lot of other Hillary voters will go with "McCain" to position Hillary for a 2012 run at the nomination.
He told me the other week; "we have no emotional connection to Obama at all!"



Vendaval -> RE: Are there really 7.5 weeks left? (9/12/2008 3:18:45 PM)

General reply -
 
There will many persons in the armed services voting absentee.  How and where are their votes counted?  Are they delivered to their home polling locations or a centralized location?  Does the same process apply to American civilians or civil servants that are stationed abroad?
 
Also, I am hoping that the worst of the hurricane season will have settled down by the time the elections roll around because that would one big logistical quagmire.


(edited to add an "e")



DesFIP -> RE: Are there really 7.5 weeks left? (9/12/2008 5:04:57 PM)

I'm looking forward to voting. Simply because two years ago the entire town gathered in the middle school gym with the lines and it was hot.

Then they put half in the high school gym and two districts in a third place which has two rooms. Luckily one of those is my district. There was one other person there last year and four people manning the booth. Quick and easy.



popeye1250 -> RE: Are there really 7.5 weeks left? (9/12/2008 5:55:34 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Vendaval

General reply -
 
There will many persons in the armed services voting absentee.  How and where are their votes counted?  Are they delivered to their home polling locations or a centralized location?  Does the same process apply to American civilians or civil servants that are stationed abroad?
 
Also, I am hoping that the worst of the hurricane season will have settled down by the time the elections roll around because that would one big logistical quagmire.


(edited to add an "e")


Ven, as I remember from voting absentee many times those ballots always went to the servicemember's town or city clerk and were counted along with other residents who were also in the military.
The Captain of our ship was always proud of our, "ONE HUNDRED PERCENT TURNOUT!"
Hurricane season ends officially on November 1st.



Vendaval -> RE: Are there really 7.5 weeks left? (9/12/2008 11:18:20 PM)

Thank you for the explanation, Popeye.  Here is to hoping that the hurricane season ends earlier rather than later.



Termyn8or -> RE: Are there really 7.5 weeks left? (9/13/2008 12:23:00 AM)

I had to jumpthrough with this.

DO YOU PEOPLE REALIZE WHAT YOU HAVE DONE ? You have discovered a way to create a paper trail to make sure each vote is counted. Something that is sometimes lacking.

What if EVERYONE voted by mail ?

Think about that. You know in the 2004 election there were many allegations of election fraud. Then the court had to decide who is getting the big chair. If people knew for a fact that their vote would be counted, they would be more inclined to vote. However some would be inclined to vote more than once, so that must be guarded against.

Actually if they perfected the absentee ballot system to prevent abuse, it might do us all well to vote using that method.

Each voter has a ticket, it is a tearoff and their thumbprint is affixed. They tear it open like one of those bingo type tickets and the ballot and all identification is seperate from the ballot. The ballot is sealed with self stick glue, and is cut open to be read and tabulated, but only after it is put into the ballot box by someone who can't read it. The people who read it are under constant surveilance, Voting more than once is a federal felony.

That should shore things up a bit shouldn't it ?

T



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