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The crunch ? - 10/19/2008 7:16:37 PM

Aneirin

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From: Tamaris
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Does anyone here have any idea of how long this financial disaster is likely to last ?

I am not just talking about the banks, they can go forth and multiply for all I care, but I am talking about the impact on the rest of us,the recession that seems all the talk.

Also to the financial whizz's here, what is the best position a person can be in to ride out this storm ?

_____________________________

Everything we are is the result of what we have thought, the mind is everything, what we think, we become - Guatama Buddha

Conservatism is distrust of people tempered by fear - William Gladstone

Post #: 1

RE: The crunch ? - 10/19/2008 7:40:17 PM

NeedToUseYou

Posts: 2297
Joined: 12/24/2005
From: None of your business
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I don't think anyone can possibly predict its end, most economists we are now relying on to get us through this were the very last to admit there was even a problem, thus I predict it will last much longer because they will make it worse trying to make it better, since they are obviously terrible at perceiving the nature of the problem, or they would have identified and corrected it before it got to this point.

My non-expert opinion(worth as much as an expert opinion judging by history).
3 years for real recovery, unless something happens to spark off real economic collapse(more than a few things could do this), then a decade.

I'm presently only buying and selling stocks, that have a dividend, long history, low to no debt, and are required for pretty much regardless of the economic picture, my only financial I'm playing with is Bank of America, because the systemic corruption incorporated into our system means the powers that be have a vested interest in their survival along with a few other big banks.

That's it, I will not lose everything, even in a depression. I however, upon a recovery, will make some hell of a return..

Currently have KO (coca-cola), had intel, sold it hoping on a better dip in price. looking at Philip Morris, Hershey's, some others. mostly companies that are not solely dependent on the US for the majority of their revenue.. Granted that is not much, but these massive selloffs are great for buying into good solid companies they don't bounce or dip as much, so the huge percentage gains and losses aren't there but you can still get some returns, and they pay dividends, so you could just buy I guess.

Prices I want stock at

KO(coke) around 40.00(currently hold small stake at 44.15, will dump probably if bounces hard, else will accumulate more around 40.00)
Intel around 14.00(bought and sold for small profit, really want it at sub 14.00 though)
Bac sub 20.00

I don't think I'll lose much buying at those prices, and those companies all make healthy money, and are pretty frickin stable, except BAC but they have the infinite coffers of the US behind them, so whatever, socialism at its finest there.

(in reply to Aneirin)

Post #: 2

RE: The crunch ? - 10/19/2008 8:18:01 PM

rexrgisformidoni

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Joined: 9/20/2008
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I think it will last a long time
so I am going to grow some vegetables and have a good plan for getting the hell out of the city.

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when all you have is a hammer, everything begins to look like nails

“I am the punishment of God...If you had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you.”

Genghis Khan

(in reply to NeedToUseYou)

Post #: 3

RE: The crunch ? - 10/19/2008 8:55:50 PM

corysub

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Joined: 1/1/2004
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Everyone is trying to answer the question...how long is it going to last....and no one knows. You don't know these things until you are out of it, at least that's been my experience. How you position yourself depends on numerous factors, and specific to you. Are your bank accounts such that you can afford to invest...rule of thumb being at least six months living expenses but given todays environment I would stretch that out to a year. How old are you...are you going to need the money you are considering investing over the next couple of years. If that's the case, than you really can't stray too far from the most secure instruments such as U.S. Treasury notes which, while not giving much of a return,do provide FOR the return of you capital.

Are you a risk taker...how much risk..lots...moderate..none....that actually is a key question any broker should ask you...and ask you to probably sign off on. If, for example you say you don't want to expose yourself to a great deal of risk and he/she buys specualtive stocks ro trades your account...or puts you into options and you lose a great deal of money, that "New Account" form you signed will be YOUR "Exhibit 1" in any litigation to put all your loses back to the broker. "Suitability" is a key ingredient in the instruments you purchase...stock, bonds, mutual funds, whatever.
Personally, I am looking at real estate rather than stocks at the moment...and it's not a bad idea to have a bit of gold as well. as countries around the world try to reflate themselves out of this quagmire. Good luck!

(in reply to rexrgisformidoni)

Post #: 4

RE: The crunch ? - 10/19/2008 9:29:32 PM

bluepanda

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Joined: 12/12/2005
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Cory, I'm curious... what type of real estate are you considering, if you don't mind my asking? One of my financial advisors is recommending against real estate at the moment, but I'm still kicking the idea around of buying some land to hold for a while. Possibly a 30 or 40 acre parcel somewhere in Northern Minnesota with an eye toward retiring on it in 20 years or so. That'd still leave me with a sizable chunk to invest in stocks or bonds, so it's not like I'm not diversifying. What's your thinking on the real estate?

_____________________________

Panda, Panda, burning bright
In the forest of the night
What immortal hand or eye
Made you all black and white and roly-poly like that?

(in reply to corysub)

Post #: 5

RE: The crunch ? - 10/19/2008 9:53:57 PM

OneMoreWaste

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Joined: 8/24/2008
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Big bang, big crunch
You know there's no free lunch
Kneel down, and pray-
Here comes your judgement day!
Big crunch, ya' know
It's gonna be quite a show-
What goes around, always comes around..."

Big Bang, Bad Religion

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-and the few still remember passion over rage-

(in reply to bluepanda)

Post #: 6

RE: The crunch ? - 10/19/2008 10:06:02 PM

corysub

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quote:

ORIGINAL: bluepanda

Cory, I'm curious... what type of real estate are you considering, if you don't mind my asking? One of my financial advisors is recommending against real estate at the moment, but I'm still kicking the idea around of buying some land to hold for a while. Possibly a 30 or 40 acre parcel somewhere in Northern Minnesota with an eye toward retiring on it in 20 years or so. That'd still leave me with a sizable chunk to invest in stocks or bonds, so it's not like I'm not diversifying. What's your thinking on the real estate?

I'm gathering information about land as well in Bucks and Montgomery counties in Pennsylvania. Not far from Philly, the mix of business here is pretty good .. lots of drug companies like Merck, Teva, Hoffman..etc..over-all a pretty well balanced economy here. We are suffering like everyone else with a consumer slowdown, but no where near as rough as other areas of the country. Now is really a great time to get the homework done, check prices and sales, watch the trends...etc. I don't know when the turn is coming...but I also don't believe the American dream of home ownership is dead..when it starts to come back I really think it will be roaring back with pent up demand from people now renting. Not rushing in..but I think when the Fed starts dropping rates the tide can turn pretty fast...anyway...that's what I'm doing at the moment...holding on to what I have and look'n....

(in reply to bluepanda)

Post #: 7

RE: The crunch ? - 10/19/2008 10:07:04 PM

lemmebeYourMine

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Joined: 11/7/2007
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Dang what it would be like to actually care about stock... or not; thinks of all the people depending on their investments for retirement. Still if I could have one tenth of the money any famous actors in Hollywood make off one movie, I'd be a pretty happy camper, let alone if I had a hundredth of what they make in a year. Someone like Jessica Alba, or Tom Cruise, or other top hollywood names.

I just don't see investing as worthwhile or gainful right now, esp. with our economy how it is, but more importantly in general it is like playing the lotto when I have bills to pay and things to try saving for.

(in reply to OneMoreWaste)

Post #: 8

RE: The crunch ? - 10/19/2008 10:17:36 PM

rexrgisformidoni

Posts: 578
Joined: 9/20/2008
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I'm going to invest in a new pistol.

_____________________________

when all you have is a hammer, everything begins to look like nails

“I am the punishment of God...If you had not committed great sins, God would not have sent a punishment like me upon you.”

Genghis Khan

(in reply to lemmebeYourMine)

Post #: 9

RE: The crunch ? - 10/19/2008 10:28:13 PM

popeye1250

Posts: 18104
Joined: 1/27/2006
From: New Hampshire
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Needtouse, if people loved stocks 3, 6, or 9 months ago why wouldn't they love them now at these prices?
This is the time to buy when people are afraid.
I have shares in (NAT) a shipping company (Tankers) that is currently paying out $6.40 a year for a yeild of 23%.
I also like (WEL), (Boots and Coots, who put out oil fires)
And (CLF) an iron mining company who should have about $20 in free cash per share by 2010 and will benefit tremendously from any turnaround.
I've seen estimates that say 2010 is when we'll come out of this reccession but who knows really.
It'll happen when it happens.
And if you own good stocks that you bought at good prices you'll probably do very nicely for yourself!

_____________________________

"But Your Honor, this is not a Jury of my Peers, these people are all decent, honest, law-abiding citizens!"

(in reply to NeedToUseYou)

Post #: 10

RE: The crunch ? - 10/19/2008 10:48:05 PM

NeedToUseYou

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From: None of your business
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Well, my logic is the stock market will either eventually recover from these levels, maybe in a couple years, or we are all fucked to hell anyway(dollar collapse, global depression, etc.). So, might as well, start riding the crazy train, as it won't matter that much really. Now if gold falls much further then that will start looking good, same with oil if it falls much more, I'll probably start looking for related companies, and buy the strongest but most beaten down of the bunch.

(in reply to popeye1250)

Post #: 11

RE: The crunch ? - 10/20/2008 6:16:28 AM

pahunkboy

Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline

most people lose money when investing. thats my suspicion.

Land in Bucks County? LOL. Well good luck on that!   The Amish have pushed up prices here in central PA, and not natural gas drilling is big which has increased the cost of raw land.

This is a good time to mention moderation- or balance. On the one hand If I horded a ton of junk silver and it went up in value I could be rich. But what could I actually do per consuming - ie continuing my life.

Here is what I like right now:

1. stock pile of drinking water.
2. gun for protection.

3. organizing ones household crap to function.
4. stocking up on soap and household stuff.

THINK.   we have disasters. these folks are told it is coming. yet- there is always a line afterwards?

So wouldnt it be good to not have to stand in the line?

5. simplify finances

6. anything less then 12% on credit cards, I would not pay off.

as to certain stocks being worth more later- I personally have no attention span for it.

7. use up any gift cards, store credits you have.

yet- on junk silver- a batch of it could be handy for total breakdown.

(in reply to NeedToUseYou)

Post #: 12

RE: The crunch ? - 10/20/2008 6:33:16 AM

bipolarber

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12% on credit cards? Where the hell have you been the last 20 years? Last time I saw 12% on any credit card was in the late 1980's...

(in reply to pahunkboy)

Post #: 13

RE: The crunch ? - 10/20/2008 6:33:24 AM

Musicmystery

Posts: 30259
Joined: 3/14/2005
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Aneirin

Does anyone here have any idea of how long this financial disaster is likely to last ?

I am not just talking about the banks, they can go forth and multiply for all I care, but I am talking about the impact on the rest of us,the recession that seems all the talk.

Also to the financial whizz's here, what is the best position a person can be in to ride out this storm ?

If you mean the credit freeze, that should start to thaw, especially when the Fed has gone as far as lending directly. But it won't thaw all at once, or quickly.

If you mean the recession, that's gonna last quite a while--two years at least. The damage has been done, and businesses don't invest in new projects when they can't adequately lay out their costs. The price swings in oil, for example, need to settle somewhere first. And economic endeavors take time to affect the overall economy. Further, producer prices were already rising, so all that will hit the consumer market as well.

What to do? I'm simply doing the same as before. I continue to add to my tax-deferred retirement account, untroubled, as all this means is that I'm getting stock shares at low prices. I had intended to shift more into bonds, but not now. In a few years, whenever the market is again climbing, I'll rebalance my portfolio to lock in some of those profits.

(in reply to Aneirin)

Post #: 14

RE: The crunch ? - 10/20/2008 6:35:13 AM

Dnomyar

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Joined: 6/27/2005
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Hersheys is moving to Mexico.

(in reply to pahunkboy)

Post #: 15

RE: The crunch ? - 10/20/2008 6:38:02 AM

shewhoserves

Posts: 110
Joined: 9/17/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Dnomyar

Hersheys is moving to Mexico.

Whaaaaaaaaaaatttttt?????????

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I'd Be Far More Interested If You Were Buying Me Drinks

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Post #: 16

RE: The crunch ? - 10/20/2008 6:40:03 AM

pahunkboy

Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
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MX is better then China. I seen a piece on how Genetic mod sugar is creeping in. sugar that defies round up. todays paper says bats are ill. not good.

Dear Bank,

A fool and his money are soon parted. AHAHAHAHA HA!

(in reply to Dnomyar)

Post #: 17

RE: The crunch ? - 10/20/2008 6:51:13 AM

Aneirin

Posts: 6121
Joined: 3/18/2006
From: Tamaris
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Yes, I was speaking with a family member who is clued up in the money world, he being a contracts manager for a large building company and I asked the same question. The answer he gave was for the last ten years the world has been living on credit and now that has come to an end, but this financial difficulty is set to get worse than it is now, and may well last for a decade, as there is a desperate need for the money markets to balance themselves and this can only be achieved by the pendulum swinging the other way, so, ten years. Ten years to be prudent with what finances we have.

The building sector I know to be in trouble at the present, that is why I asked a contracts manager, I was in my profession linked to the building sector, so what happens there affects all the satellite industries around it, and they are being affected big time. I asked this contracts manager how he was for work and heard he has just secured enough work in the private sector to last the next ten years, several multi million pound projects, so his workforce and their families are ok as far as employment is concerned so far.

As to a good position to be in, from my perspective, a student, I do not use credit and have not done for the last five years, debts I have, but nothing secured and I know how to live cheap, I believe I should be ok, as prudence I have learned long ago.

_____________________________

Everything we are is the result of what we have thought, the mind is everything, what we think, we become - Guatama Buddha

Conservatism is distrust of people tempered by fear - William Gladstone

(in reply to NeedToUseYou)

Post #: 18

RE: The crunch ? - 10/20/2008 6:53:07 AM

LaTigresse

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Joined: 1/15/2006
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pahunk, even though my retirement money has dropped in the last quarter, I did some investigating this weekend. I looked at the total $ I have put into it and what I have now.

The reality is even though it has gone down, I still have far more than I put in. So, I will not only continue to add to it, I am adding more.

As for when this will end, I don't think anyone can accurately give a good time frame.

Myself, I have continued to pay off debt. Living frugally. Putting myself in a place that I could survive with alot less $$ if I have to.

_____________________________

My twisted, self deprecating, sense of humour, finds alot to laugh about, in your lack of one!

Just because you are well educated, articulate, and can use big, fancy words, properly........does not mean you are right!

(in reply to pahunkboy)

Post #: 19

RE: The crunch ? - 10/20/2008 6:57:23 AM

RCdc

Posts: 8674
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Aneirin

Does anyone here have any idea of how long this financial disaster is likely to last ?

I am not just talking about the banks, they can go forth and multiply for all I care, but I am talking about the impact on the rest of us,the recession that seems all the talk.

Also to the financial whizz's here, what is the best position a person can be in to ride out this storm ?

Don't have any debts. Don't invest too much in a single thing. And two years before we even see a flatten out.

the.dark.

_____________________________

RC&dc

love isnt gazing into each others eyes - it's looking forward in the same direction

(in reply to Aneirin)

Post #: 20

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