Mercnbeth
Posts: 11766
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Popeye, Here's a few things to consider regarding your comments. First to the OP - the difference between you and the 'Banks' getting credit is that the Banks still have some collateral; most individuals and companies no longer do. The question isn't why aren't the Banks lending but how will they be allowed to lend. Credit cards lending is not a good source of economic stimulation. Refinancing mortgages to pay off credit cards at their limits either before or after Christmas is. Unfortunately, the collapse of the national RE market removed the ability for Banks to refinance. Its a double whammy when you consider that lax loan underwriting caused the collapse in the first place. Under current scrutiny regulator bureaucrats will be covering their collective ass by scrutinizing closely ANY exceptions or new 'out of the box' lending programs, such as 'no doc loans' or 'negative amortization' loans. How bad is it? My company was solicited for months to switch my LOC to another bank who wanted my business. Finally I gave in to the weekly soliciting phone call and had a meeting set last week. The day before he had to call to cancel because the regulators, who in the prior quarter cited them for their lack of Commercial LOC's, came back now and put them on the 'Watch List' due to their existing loan portfolio collateral. What changed? The same thing that changed for all of us - ALL of what we 'owned', or what we claim as an asset has depreciated in value. In the macro - it makes it difficult for Banks to lend 'real money'. In the micro - your house and mine is no longer the 'Christmas Club' or 'piggy bank' it used to be when you wanted to buy something or needed to deal with maxed out credit cards. The stock market is a bit different. That is run on confidence and innuendo as much, if not more so, than reality. The current 'word on the street' can be summed up by one word - doubt. Nobody knows what's coming, and that's keeping a LOT of money on the sidelines. The Market is parked in neutral, like a car with a bad parking brake sitting on a steep hill only able to move quickly one way - DOWN, to ANY negative news, while at the same time qualifying any positive news in the face of the new Administration. If there is a Bull market it won't come until Spring at the earliest when the current rhetoric is finally replaced by implemented policy. Too many people, having influence on the economy, have no idea what to expect. That doubt results in a downward trend to all investment especially in the speculative markets. Also, remember that on the regulating policy and administration side of the problem you have the status quo. Unlike the Republican party blamed as a whole for the economic mess generated by a President who authorized spending more than any prior Democratic counterpart; the voters decided that the party controlling Congress should remain the same. Senator Frank and the rest of the Democratic majority hold all the ability to dictate what happens next. The most ardent Democratic Party apologist should assign some responsibility on them, although I doubt it. Pragmatically they, more than the President, had the ability to prevent or, at minimum, lessen what occurred and yet, in the face of their single digit 'approval' rating as a whole, their failure to do anything was rewarded by reelection and a greater plurality. Good for them! - But now; "What will they do?" with this power and a Democrat in the White House, is another source of doubt. Doubt is the food of a 'Bear' market. I also doubt that anyone will read this next part and see neutrality but I'll say it anyway. In the short term, a McCain victory would have seen a small 4th quarter boom. (KEY - Short term!) Long term his administration was potentially much more damaging and potentially disastrous. However, the 'status quo' works for Bankers and investors; because whatever the 'game' they can play it, and exploit it, when they know the rules. The current fall out is a result of that comfort level not being there. It is for that same reason I see the end of the 1st quarter as being the starting point for a new boom. At the end of the first quarter PE Obama will be the President and all his previous, and sometimes conflicting, policy statement will give way to direct action. When those policies and Presidential 'Executive Orders' are in place; market doubt will be replaced by market pragmatism. I for one - can't wait for it to happen. Similar to my 'big brother' companies and investors I'll also respond appropriately with growth, or further consolidation and down sizing. Meanwhile - personally made handicrafts and gifts are economical and the personal touch makes them great for Holiday gift giving! Depending on how cold it gets we can all be hoping for Santa to bring us 'coal' this year. PS - HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO THE CORE~! PPS - I tried not to make it so, but; does this post represent the 'doom & gloom' side of the debate?
< Message edited by Mercnbeth -- 11/10/2008 12:54:39 PM >
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