Termyn8or
Posts: 18681
Joined: 11/12/2005
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Much as I hate to say it, this thread sat very close on the page to the one about the guy who got trampled to death at Walmart yesterday. Sicko me almost got a chuckle out of it, "Damn, you can say that again".
Seriously though, people didn't think when they bought too much house or too much car, why would junk be any different ? I think this was a very temporary bubble, first of all most of the loss leaders are probably gone now, in addition there will be quite a few that probably max out their credit cards. And that is no joke. They are actually reducing people's limits these days, I heard of one member here and relative of a member here who has had this happen despite their pristeen credit. In fact one bank was doing that to the olman, which may be partly due to his age and the fact that he hasn't applied for any new credit in quite a while. More on that angle of it some other time, but lo and behold, a couple of months ago they started raising his limit again. This without a phone call or letter or anything. Strange breed these bankers I tellya.
So basically I think it's going to flatteen out real fast. It might also be that those with somewhere between ¼ and ½ a brain might want to get all their shopping done quicker so it goes on the December bill, and they can use their bonus to pay it down. All in all I think the numbers for the whole "season" once added up, will be down.
I think our own SilverMark is going to have to run some deep discounts to keep things moving in the coming year. I think all retailers will, they will have no choice. That or they can start dusting off the goods on their shelves. There will be deals next year I think, and the result will be that corporate earnings will be down, but at least some people will be working moving the product.
Sadly, but most likely true, is that some people are literally and the end of their rope when it comes to debt service and have decided that "Dammit this might be the last Christmas, but it's going to be a damnned good one". This means that they expect to be in default next year, so what's a couple more thousand bucks ? Some may even be spending their house payment or rent, figuring it will take months to get them out, so they can stow away some money for a deposit and first month's rent at the new place.
Pessimism ? That word implies an outcome that is significantly less desirable than reality is likely to yield. I do not believe I am doing that. Perhaps it is because I see things from a different perspective. I live in a little almost like enclave neighborhood in the inner city. I also work in the inner city and am heavily involved in the business at which I work in many ways. I am seeing customers who can't afford to pay for their equipment repairs, I see able bodied Men, looking for, practically begging for work, I see neighbors who simply don't have the couple of hundred dollars to do ESSENTIAL repairs on their home, who work every day yet can't pay their water bill and property taxes. In the last instance the guy lives fairly frugally. He goes to the bar once in a while, smokes cheap cigarettes, eats cheap food and refuses to turn the furnace on except between Thanksgiving and Easter.
Our pre-Thanksgiving rush was very flat. The rush has now arrived and I have to (ugh) work Monday, but I could use the money, who couldn't. So this is now the official pre-Christmas rush. We'll see how it goes. We get one more semi-rush when the income tax checks come out next year. We will also see how that goes.
T
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RE: Early data shows strong Black Friday shopping - 
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