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Russia, China warn of dire economic straits in 2009 - 12/24/2008 3:06:23 PM

celticlord2112

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Russia, China warn of dire economic straits in 2009

quote:

Japan also approved a record-high budget aimed at avoiding the worst effects of the crisis and Germany prepared to pump billions of euros into the economy in a new rescue plan in a holiday season marred by a slew of economic bad news.

With governments around the world pumping billions or preparing to pump billions into the global economy, why are things continuing to worsen?

Interest rates are coming down everywhere, governments are pouring billions into banks to restore liquidity, yet the liquidity just doesn't return.

What is wrong with this picture?

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RE: Russia, China warn of dire economic straits in 2009 - 12/24/2008 3:09:59 PM

Raechard

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Confidence: governments intervening doesn't look good. Would you go out and buy that brand new car if you thought bad times were around the corner? It’s that simple in the end, we can always print new money but if people aren’t spending it through fear we are all in trouble.

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RE: Russia, China warn of dire economic straits in 2009 - 12/24/2008 3:22:32 PM

lronitulstahp

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China and Russia...again? i'm all for a retro Halston halter dress, or Chanel suit...but retro cold wars????Seriously...dude...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmZRDUO1wGQ

~obtuse slut

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RE: Russia, China warn of dire economic straits in 2009 - 12/24/2008 3:28:53 PM

Raechard

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Yeah besides we can't have cold wars anymore due to global warming.

~Acute Ache.

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RE: Russia, China warn of dire economic straits in 2009 - 12/24/2008 3:30:43 PM

Lorr47

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quote:

ORIGINAL: celticlord2112

Russia, China warn of dire economic straits in 2009

quote:

Japan also approved a record-high budget aimed at avoiding the worst effects of the crisis and Germany prepared to pump billions of euros into the economy in a new rescue plan in a holiday season marred by a slew of economic bad news.

With governments around the world pumping billions or preparing to pump billions into the global economy, why are things continuing to worsen?

Interest rates are coming down everywhere, governments are pouring billions into banks to restore liquidity, yet the liquidity just doesn't return.

What is wrong with this picture?

One economist said that the problem is one of trust. The banks will not lend to each other because they do not trust the borrowing bank to pay the money back. The banks do not lend to non banks because they do not trust borrowers to pay back loans (or they do not trust the economy to allow the borrower to pay back the loans). Borrowers, or potential borrowers, do not trust banks to treat them fairly. If he is right everything is in place for recovery but the recovery will not happen until trust is reestablished.

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RE: Russia, China warn of dire economic straits in 2009 - 12/24/2008 3:34:20 PM

celticlord2112

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quote:

If he is right everything is in place for recovery but the recovery will not happen until trust is reestablished.

Begs the question of how does trust get re-established. If government stimulus won't do it, if massive infusions of cash won't do it......what does it take?

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RE: Russia, China warn of dire economic straits in 2009 - 12/24/2008 3:47:37 PM

DarkSteven

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quote:

ORIGINAL: celticlord2112

quote:

If he is right everything is in place for recovery but the recovery will not happen until trust is reestablished.

Begs the question of how does trust get re-established. If government stimulus won't do it, if massive infusions of cash won't do it......what does it take?

Credit will be extended once the banks realize that that's the way they're supposed to conduct business and make money. Plus they've been used to high yielding subprime, etc. loans, and will have a hard time adjusting to the low yields of conservative, safe investments.

The bailout is counterproductive because it lets the banks keep going without making the safe loans.

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RE: Russia, China warn of dire economic straits in 2009 - 12/24/2008 3:58:58 PM

corysub

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quote:

ORIGINAL: celticlord2112

quote:

If he is right everything is in place for recovery but the recovery will not happen until trust is reestablished.

Begs the question of how does trust get re-established. If government stimulus won't do it, if massive infusions of cash won't do it......what does it take?

Time...it's going to take "time" for trust to be re-established across the board. Some things could happen a lot sooner than we think...take housing, four example. Unless one had been in a coma through the 1990's it was pretty obvious that housing prices in some parts of the country were insane. I used to travel a great deal to California from New York and would stand with my mouth wide open looking at the prices people were paying for little cape cod houses in Santa Monica or down towards San Diego....oftentime twice what a similar structure would sell for on Long Island. And than, after paying $700,000 for the house, they would TEAR IT DOWN and build something that would be on the market for $2 1/2 - $3 million!. People were buying two and tree condo's in Florida and Las Vegas on spec...often selling them at a profit before they were even built! Greenspan kept money easy, the banks were choking on liquidity, and you could buy property with no money down and interest only mortgages, with no income check. Wall Street grasped the opportunity to package loans and securitize mortgages and re-sold them to investors all over the world!

What took two decades to get to the point of "irrational exubeance" and un-fettered greed is not going to be cured overnight. However, the Federal Reserve has been more agressive in pumping money into the system to increase the velocity of money that when it begins to impact the economy we may all be surprised just how quickly things improve. The first step is getting mortgage rates below 5% where they are currently, and where refini's are starting to boom! That brings liquidity back to the consumer, already being helped with crude oil trading in the 30's, versus $145 this past summer. The next step will be to see applications for new home buyers starting to gap on the upside. That could happen within the next few months as we get closer to the spring season. The stock market is already reflecting an improvement coming over the next six months with its bottoming action over the past month.

There is a big question mark, however, that can put us into a depression! If Congress insists on saving the planet with stupid, unprofitable, green projects and does nothing to help job creation by profit oriented businesses...the downward spiral we have been in could resume with a vengence. The ball is now in Obama's court...and Pelosi's.
Are they up to the challange, along with Rangle, Reid and Frank....or are we going to see the same dysfunctional Congress interfere in the free-market system?

Time...Time is what we need to restore confidence. Time to see actions taken not words spoken....Time to reflect on the course to take to protect our families...Money and gold in the mattress...or investment in America.

< Message edited by corysub -- 12/24/2008 4:08:29 PM >

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RE: Russia, China warn of dire economic straits in 2009 - 12/24/2008 5:20:19 PM

Lorr47

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quote:

ORIGINAL: celticlord2112

quote:

If he is right everything is in place for recovery but the recovery will not happen until trust is reestablished.

Begs the question of how does trust get re-established. If government stimulus won't do it, if massive infusions of cash won't do it......what does it take?

Give every household in America $150,000.00 to $350,000. Citizens will trust themselves to spend it is the best manner in their own self interest. Pay off the house. Buy a GM automobile. The money will be taxed so all governments get some. Balance is invested (savings) and economy gets another shot in arm. Want to see a block party extending from New York to LA? Some have suggested doing just this with each household getting $350,000.00. Better than giving more to Wall Street. The US on crack;jump started.

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RE: Russia, China warn of dire economic straits in 2009 - 12/24/2008 5:23:59 PM

celticlord2112

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quote:

Give every household in America $150,000.00 to $350,000. Citizens will trust themselves to spend it is the best manner in their own self interest. Pay off the house. Buy a GM automobile. The money will be taxed so all governments get some. Balance is invested (savings) and economy gets another shot in arm. Want to see a block party extending from New York to LA? Some have suggested doing just this with each household getting $350,000.00. Better than giving more to Wall Street.

Wouldn't a tax moratorium accomplish exactly this? (albeit at a lower dollar amount)

Yes, for now, I'm the tax holiday drummer boy.....pa rum pum pum pum!

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RE: Russia, China warn of dire economic straits in 2009 - 12/24/2008 5:29:03 PM

Lorr47

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quote:

ORIGINAL: celticlord2112

quote:

Give every household in America $150,000.00 to $350,000. Citizens will trust themselves to spend it is the best manner in their own self interest. Pay off the house. Buy a GM automobile. The money will be taxed so all governments get some. Balance is invested (savings) and economy gets another shot in arm. Want to see a block party extending from New York to LA? Some have suggested doing just this with each household getting $350,000.00. Better than giving more to Wall Street.

Wouldn't a tax moratorium accomplish exactly this? (albeit at a lower dollar amount)

Yes, for now, I'm the tax holiday drummer boy.....pa rum pum pum pum!

CL are you arguing against The Leader giving you between $150,000 and $350,000. I want mine. Pay off the house, buy a GM automobile and then put the rest after taxes in savings. To hell with wall street. The economy will be jump started and to hell with banks. Businesses will be going full tilt and we will foreclose on the banks.

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RE: Russia, China warn of dire economic straits in 2009 - 12/24/2008 5:31:34 PM

Lorr47

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quote:

CL are you arguing against The Leader giving you between $150,000 and $350,000. I want mine. Pay off the house, buy a GM automobile and then put the rest after taxes in savings. To hell with wall street. The economy will be jump started and to hell with banks. Businesses will be going full tilt and we will foreclose on the banks.

I view the government and Wall Street as obstructionist. So, I propose going around them and create our own stimulus package with the citizens. Problem solved. What is the next problem.

< Message edited by Lorr47 -- 12/24/2008 5:32:34 PM >

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RE: Russia, China warn of dire economic straits in 2009 - 12/24/2008 5:40:20 PM

Lorr47

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lorr47

quote:

CL are you arguing against The Leader giving you between $150,000 and $350,000. I want mine. Pay off the house, buy a GM automobile and then put the rest after taxes in savings. To hell with wall street. The economy will be jump started and to hell with banks. Businesses will be going full tilt and we will foreclose on the banks.

I view the government and Wall Street as obstructionist. So, I propose going around them and create our own stimulus package with the citizens. Problem solved. What is the next problem.

Then we revise government. Every household is given a computer. Every decision is voted on by the people on a given day by a computerized vote. The majority wins. Congress is downsized to 50 with the death penalty imposed on anyone who steals from the body politic. The IRS is abolished in favor of any other tax and the productivity of business increased by multiples. I do not think it would be impossible. The thing that I keep running into is that you and I are not going to suggest anything that will work unless we go outside the box. The system is broke; both the political and financial systems. We get Arnold to enforce the rules.(Oops my soap box broke and I fell with my ATM 30 calibre carbine pistol going off. The first shot of the revolution.)

< Message edited by Lorr47 -- 12/24/2008 5:44:08 PM >

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RE: Russia, China warn of dire economic straits in 2009 - 12/24/2008 5:43:44 PM

celticlord2112

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quote:

CL are you arguing against The Leader giving you between $150,000 and $350,000. I want mine. Pay off the house, buy a GM automobile and then put the rest after taxes in savings. To hell with wall street. The economy will be jump started and to hell with banks. Businesses will be going full tilt and we will foreclose on the banks.

Dear Leader can't "give" me a damn thing. On the contrary, it is I who give him my tax dollars every year.

If Dear Leader gave everyone $350,000, that $350,000 would literally be hot of the press, and thus not worth a whole lot. (Think Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation).

Instead of "giving" me what's already mine, I would much prefer Dear Leader not take it in the first place. A tax holiday is not only less inflationary and less costly to administer, but, being spread over a period of time, will have a larger effect than point shock infusions of cash.

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RE: Russia, China warn of dire economic straits in 2009 - 12/24/2008 5:45:43 PM

celticlord2112

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quote:

We get Arnold to enforce the rules.

Ironic that you should select an Austrian strongman to enforce the fascist vision you describe.

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RE: Russia, China warn of dire economic straits in 2009 - 12/24/2008 5:54:08 PM

xBullx

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven

The bailout is counterproductive because it lets the banks keep going without making the safe loans.

This is my thought as well.. It seems the banks are making money by holding out their hands to Uncle Sam versus actually loaning money to borrowers. The banks can't or won't even show you where the bailout money went.

I wish Sam would pay me for not working like he's doing for the banking industry. These banks are shuring up their cash reserves at tax payer expense so they can withstand the impending depression they created. Ohhhh, buy the way when the depression happens those with cash reserves can buy lotsa stuff really cheap.

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RE: Russia, China warn of dire economic straits in 2009 - 12/24/2008 5:58:02 PM

NormalOutside

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Abandon banks, abandon the credit scheme, to hell with the game called "the economy". Let it fall to pieces. It's only enslaving us anyway.

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RE: Russia, China warn of dire economic straits in 2009 - 12/24/2008 5:58:28 PM

popeye1250

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CL, fuck that!
I'll take the $350k and boy I'll spend some!
I'm a housholder too!
Let's see, Popeye needs a new Cadillac (to park next to the new Lincoln)
Maybe a new Dodge or Ford pick-up, another house, and a bunch of other stuff.
Funny, I was in the Ford dealers last week to look at that new Mustang Shelby ($97k!!!) and there were a bunch of people in there buying cars and I mean the place was busy!
A month ago I was there to get an oil change and there was no-one there.

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RE: Russia, China warn of dire economic straits in 2009 - 12/24/2008 5:59:03 PM

celticlord2112

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quote:

to hell with the game called "the economy".

Sure. How do you propose to accomplish this?

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RE: Russia, China warn of dire economic straits in 2009 - 12/24/2008 6:00:37 PM

Lorr47

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quote:

ORIGINAL: celticlord2112

quote:

CL are you arguing against The Leader giving you between $150,000 and $350,000. I want mine. Pay off the house, buy a GM automobile and then put the rest after taxes in savings. To hell with wall street. The economy will be jump started and to hell with banks. Businesses will be going full tilt and we will foreclose on the banks.

Dear Leader can't "give" me a damn thing. On the contrary, it is I who give him my tax dollars every year.

If Dear Leader gave everyone $350,000, that $350,000 would literally be hot of the press, and thus not worth a whole lot. (Think Zimbabwe-style hyperinflation).

Instead of "giving" me what's already mine, I would much prefer Dear Leader not take it in the first place. A tax holiday is not only less inflationary and less costly to administer, but, being spread over a period of time, will have a larger effect than point shock infusions of cash.

[/quote

I forget who did the math but it is possible. Yes, right off the printing press but would you prefer we print it to give to Wall Street? We are printing it now why not give it to ourselves. Or, we could nationalize the oil industry and get funds doing it that way. I hear you growling but we could nationalize the oil industry to fund health care. Do I hear screams "he is showing his true colors." Well alright. We will not nationalize the oil industry (for the time being) and I will spend all of mine to jump start the economy and you can invest yours in a business per Bush economics. But, neither you or I have even come near a solution involving the government and Wall Street. As far apart as we think we should have found someone somewhere spouting a viable idea by now. Well, I am willing to cooperate and spend all of mine for the public good. Well not all of it for the public good since I have lost the use of my right hand and wrist so I will need some for medical. Just a little.

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