Hollyday retails sales 40 year low

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Vendaval -> Hollyday retails sales 40 year low (1/8/2009 7:24:27 PM)
The after-Christmas reports on retail hollyday sales are back and they are really low, as one of the worst in 40 years. People were buying groceries, drugs and electronics. But even Wal-Mart only had about a 2% increase. Costco and Target posted losses, Macy's is closing 11 stores and high end retailers like Nordstrom's & Saks had losses in double digits. The prediction is for 73,000 stores to close in 2009. (National Association of Retailers) There are more video links on the site about this subject. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/28566024#28566024

Termyn8or -> RE: Hollyday retails sales 40 year low (1/8/2009 8:07:45 PM)
That's step one. Actually I find it encouraging, because the wind is not filling the sails of the rich. Nothing we buy is made here, so so what ? If anything it has stemmed a hemmorage of money out of this country on useless junk. I hope many people enjoyed a much better Christmas, discovering one another rather than their new toys. Perhaps it will be a trend. Whatever reason, it wasn't me. For about ten years now my family and chosen family do not do Christmas. Gift giving is strictly verboten on Christmas. I have been out of this bullshit for years. Sure there are people who mortgage the house to get the kids a bunch of junk gifts, but they'll be sorry when the house is being foreclosed upon and all the toys are broken. T

TNstepsout -> RE: Hollyday retails sales 40 year low (1/9/2009 4:48:58 AM)
I'm actually kind of surprised that it was that bad. My daughter works retail and she said it was very busy this year. She said when they compared same day sales they were pretty close to last years numbers. There were a couple of days that were much lower, but they corresponded by exact date, so the same date last year could have been a weekend and this year was a Monday or something like that. They had other days that were higher than last year. Her store is in a mall and she said it was always busy. I know there wasn't as much merchandise put out in some stores. I went to a couple of stores looking for Christmas ornaments in the right color to replace some my cat had broken (he LOVES his Christmas tree) and the selection was dismal. I went to Hobby Lobby on Christmas Eve because I got off work a little early and I wanted to stop in for some beads. They had all of their leftover Christmas stuff already stuffed into just a few aisles, the garden stuff for spring was already out and they weren't even playing Christmas music! It was SO gloomy.

CatdeMedici -> RE: Hollyday retails sales 40 year low (1/9/2009 4:54:10 AM)
Perhaps the American people have finally realized that having "stuff" isn't all its cracked up to be. I have always been one who buys 99% for need and 1% for desire, where it seems many are the reverse with gross waste of expendable income that they THINK they have, then moan because they have massive credit card debt. Sorry, no sympathy here except for the poor people who will lose jobs that were based on false hopes. We have needed to scale back and get back to basics for years now.

kittinSol -> RE: Hollyday retails sales 40 year low (1/9/2009 5:03:59 AM)
I know a family (who shall remain nameless) who spent so much dough on useless Christmas presents and other junk for their family that now, they can't pay their phone bill. People still spend like idiots [8\|] .

Termyn8or -> RE: Hollyday retails sales 40 year low (1/9/2009 7:18:24 AM)
Oh tell me about it kit. Some friends of mine, high speed internet, movies on demand, a dog with a tracking chip, but no car and their phone keeps getting shut off. Everybody has to keep two rolodexes, one for everybody else and one for these folks. Good people sure, but not the sharpest bowling balls in the alley. Perhaps I am just lucky. I have no cellphone, no video games, no cable, no ipod or whatever the latest gadget is, and I don't miss it a bit. Then we have some people whom I have gotten rid of. Owner of a landscaping company, three kids, pretty good life. Until the Wife had to go to jail for shoplifting DVDs. That's not why I got rid of them, but come on, that is not the same as stealing a loaf of bread. Another thing I see is the sales of junk food/snacks. I see it when I go get beer, an essential nutrient as far as I am concerned. They load up on things I would NEVER in a million years consider putting anywhere near my mouth. And lottery tickets, it is starting to look like the amount of money spent on lottery tickets is inversely proportional to income. They whip out the food card and get a bunch of junk for the kids to eat, totalling maybe twenty bucks, and then get thirty bucks worth of lottery tickets. They have no conception of what a sucker bet is. I'll tell you now, if I had kids they would never ever see on air or cable TV, it would all be rented and selected. They would not see the inside of a retail store until they were within a couple years of moving out. They would not have candy until they could drive and go get their own. Sound harsh ? Not really, just as I don't miss the cellphone or the cable or any of that junk. And actually, I could afford all that junk, but it would not be here because it is a distraction. That's all people want now is a distraction. People are truly decadent, and the root of that word is not decade, it is decay. T PS, at one time I worked at a TV shop in an upscale neighborhood and more than once I have gotten paid to remove the tuner from brand new TVs. This means it would only work off a VCR or disk player. I don't wonder why, not a bit. T

pahunkboy -> RE: Hollyday retails sales 40 year low (1/9/2009 8:00:34 AM)
Term, I would do the same if I had kids. Tho, the schools have peer pressure. One trend is for home school-ers to link up and be more of a cummune/community. which if you think about it- that is what school started out as.... now look at the signs in the mall. you can save money. the more you shop and the more you save!!! why is it that root canals are never on sale???? I personally will miss alot of stuff. But them I never pay retail. Ever. I do thrift stores, dumpster dive, my house was a foreclosure, I order eye glasses from hong kong.... sock and underwear are on sale- new tho- that is about it. built in obsolencsense hyper....is now ending. good riddance. the stores were filled to the max much of the season. value city closed down here. frankly we have saturation in shopping stores. we over built them. I also see alot of duplication. for instance, locally they want a community college to be built. well- why built it when there are empty stores and buildings??? the library has a few rooms, as does the Y, as does the mall, as does 3 univeristies. so why build more? then it floors me how there is no attempt to cut back on heat. Aldis I have to take off clothes, same at Bucknell, city library, any place I do errands. does it really need to be 70 degrees in all those places?? no. so the hard times, must mean Biffy and Miles cant belong to 2 country clubs and own both a large and small yaught. right now- millionaires are being wiped out. a fight between millionaires and baillionairs. that is not good folks. the outcome could be 2 classes, a high class and low class America. and make no mistake... this is NOT "all of a sudden". we have been declining since 1968.

Termyn8or -> RE: Hollyday retails sales 40 year low (1/9/2009 9:17:00 AM)
Hunky, without trying to hijack let me tell you about my position. Somehow this relates to the thread, just not sure how. I hardly buy anything except consumables. I am one of the highest paid TV techicians in Ohio, if I wanted to I could probably make a hundred grand a year after taxes with no lifting or physical labor. But the technology is changing and when it comes to these new flat screens I am a babe in the woods. Almost everybody is in the field right now because it is new technology. I have a choice, that is we have a choice. We can ride the storm out, learn to fix this junk and get equipped properly to do so or we can move on to something else. However I didn't come here to talk about me all day, I just wanted to let you know where this is coming from and some may not see the relevance as of yet, but it is coming. I am going to switch over to the consumer side of the equation now to try to make it clear. Take the ubiquitous TV set. We here might not be all that impressed but there are alot of them out there and they break down, brother do they break down, especially the new ones. Close to half of them break down within the first year and I know one guy had that happen who was told the parts were no longer available. This by a factory authorized technician. Now if you look in the stores all you see is flat screens, they no longer sell CRT based TVs or even PC monitors at most places. There is a plethora of new brands that nobody ever heard of, and even the old brands have been bought out and are basically the same Chinese junk. Now that the "old" technology has been cleared out, everything is more expensive. The simple regular TV set for $139 is not usually available, try double that at least. With many families owning more than one, possibly even three or four this adds up. Now get this, almost half of them break (right after the warranty), and at least half of those that do are not fixable, usually due to parts cost or availability. The people cannot afford a new one, what do they do ? They won't have one, no choice. In this way the system is correcting itself, because they won't be able to see the advertising for all the new junk. Heavens forbid they might have an actual discussion or something really off the wall like that. They shot themselves in the foot TWICE, in one way by going to this other technology prematurely, without any valid servicing, and the government with mandating digital broadcasting only. Now those set top converters everybody will need in February this year, they can get on the cheap. Some are fifty bucks and the gov gives you a forty buck coupon, in fact two of them. However, that set in the kitchen that's not hooked to an antenna and uses rabbit ears is not going to get shit. It needs alot of signal. I used to watch Canadian TV from Cleveland, those days are over. Range is quite limited, even in the city proper there are many complaints already that people can't get all the local channels on digital. And I don't mean that they come in crappy, I mean you don't get anything at all. In the end what does all this mean ? You get less for more. Of course they claim less is more. But really, when you get people paying say twenty bucks for a toy with lead based paint on it that was produced for thirteen cents, the TV deal doesn't sound so bad. So get someone a new TV for Xmas because they need it. They will pay for it anyway, the first repair bill will likely be close to what it is worth. Get them a toy for twenty bucks, some greedy owner of a factory in China will get his whopping thirteen cents and the workers, their rice. Meantime international business moguls will enjoy the rest of that twenty bucks, or two hundred, or two thousand. As much as you are willing to give. That's why it's relevant, because it comes down to knowing what we want and what we need, and the difference between the two. I almost wish for people to be broke for a while, able to live of course, but no frivolities. Get their priorities straight. Find out all the wonderful things they don't need and make the lesson stick. I have been broke, and the lesson stuck. Everything is designed to make money. Let me ask you this all, is our supremacy in the world based on our rampant consumerism, that we are the largest market in the world ? Is that our claim to fame ? Would it be fair to say that we are "made out of money" ?, and I mean that in the broader sense, in that that's all we're worth is money. Is standing tall on that setting us up for a big fall ? Don't sell any of that silver and gold, water, firearms, generators, fuel, staple foods, tools and so forth. Just my wee little opinion. T

SilverMark -> RE: Hollyday retails sales 40 year low (1/9/2009 9:49:51 AM)
As a retailer, first for those who think "it's about time" we have over built etc etc. you may all take a flying ...oh well not worth getting moderated over. I am glad there are so many experts on business floating around here. I didn't lose a dime nor an employee during the Christmas season but the culling that is taking place at present isn't the natural course of the market. You may believe what you wish but, on a subject that I am indeed a bit of an expert on, please allow me to say you have no f-ing clue. I am not overly wealthy but, I am successful and have fought the retail wars since 1982 and have seen in good times what the market will do and not do. Those who run inefficiently are taken out but, this is not one of those times. When all you have left is Wal-Mart revisit this post and understand what has taken place to a number of good retailers. There are a number of your local retailers that will go long before the "Big Boys" they will be your neighbors, your friends and your community members. pa, for you to talk of Buffy and Biff when you eat free government cheese certainly makes you an absolute expert of the path things should go. I have sad news for you....Buffy and Biff will be just fine but, your neighbor may not be, your local retailer will probably not be nor will your local carpenter, developer etc. etc. etc..

Dnomyar -> RE: Hollyday retails sales 40 year low (1/9/2009 10:10:11 AM)
SilverMark I got goverment cheese from a friend and actually it is better than store brought cheese.

SilverMark -> RE: Hollyday retails sales 40 year low (1/9/2009 10:11:20 AM)
LOL....well, who knows....might come from holly's cows?

TheUtopian -> RE: Hollyday retails sales 40 year low (1/9/2009 10:59:53 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: SilverMark As a retailer, first for those who think "it's about time" we have over built etc etc. you may all take a flying ...oh well not worth getting moderated over. I am glad there are so many experts on business floating around here. I didn't lose a dime nor an employee during the Christmas season but the culling that is taking place at present isn't the natural course of the market. You may believe what you wish but, on a subject that I am indeed a bit of an expert on, please allow me to say you have no f-ing clue. I am not overly wealthy but, I am successful and have fought the retail wars since 1982 and have seen in good times what the market will do and not do. Those who run inefficiently are taken out but, this is not one of those times. When all you have left is Wal-Mart revisit this post and understand what has taken place to a number of good retailers. There are a number of your local retailers that will go long before the "Big Boys" they will be your neighbors, your friends and your community members. pa, for you to talk of Buffy and Biff when you eat free government cheese certainly makes you an absolute expert of the path things should go. I have sad news for you....Buffy and Biff will be just fine but, your neighbor may not be, your local retailer will probably not be nor will your local carpenter, developer etc. etc. etc.. {Bait} So tell us what happened. You've mentioned the big boys, Wal-Mart, the natural course of the market, hand-outs of program cheese, and all the non-experts on collarme pontificating. But what you haven't told us, is what's really going on here....And I'm really interested in the opinion of a ''true'' retail expert as to what's behind /what's shaped the worst shortfall in forty-years worth of retail sales? - R

SilverMark -> RE: Hollyday retails sales 40 year low (1/9/2009 11:30:04 AM)
It is simply put a malaise in the market...I see it within my own stores everyday...almost an abject fear of spending, it has nothing to do with the wealthy not being able to buy Buffy and Biff what it is their little heart desires as much as it does with the average consumer fearing for his economic life! This is not the act of some huge conspiracy to deprive the wealthy, they can buy and will be able to buy again next week and the week after if they chose to do so. The market in good times take those out that are too heavily leveraged or those that are indeed poorly managed. What is taking place now, is not the taking of the poorly managed but the death of some very good retailers and at this point still mostly small retailers not the Large category killers or the predatory marketers. I have stores that sell both very high end goods and stores that sell medium to medium low end goods and the ones at present that are doing the best and carrying the others are the higher end stores. It isn't the wealthy that is getting killed here it is the average guy, not the ones in the BMW's but the ones in the F-150s. The Wal Marts of the world will survive out of shear size, those that over serve the consumer with money, will survive, what will not survive is your local mall or your local retailer. The Jeweler, the furniture store the appliance guy, Macy's will be there at the end as will Wal Mart the rest may not, and due to little fault of their own. There is nothing "good" to be found in the demise of retailers as some seem to think nor is there good to be found in the diminishing of the American consumer....that is strictly B.S. In deference to your condescension there Utopian, the situation is dire for a number of retailers with very little hope of immediate help, there is nothing natural about a huge part of the American economic life wasting away due to little fault that would lie with those who own and operate retail stores.

pahunkboy -> RE: Hollyday retails sales 40 year low (1/9/2009 2:55:39 PM)
people will still buy things. but now more then ever it will be about 'value. enjoy things now. we havent seen 70s type inflation yet.

Vendaval -> RE: Hollyday retails sales 40 year low (1/9/2009 4:08:34 PM)
That really is a reoccuring pattern with some people. You can make, barter and buy nice presents without breaking the bank or maxing out your credit cards. And several families and groups I know have a gift exchange where everyone brings 1 gift, wrapped with a upper price limit of say, $20-$50, that you can keep or trade. In one family there are two groups for the gift exchange, one for the ladies and girls and one for the men and boys. The women exchange beauty supplies, jewelry and knicknacks and the men items like tools and home improvement supplies. A favorite gift one year for the guys was a softee toilet seat cuishion as several of them are long distance truck drivers. quote: ORIGINAL: kittinSol I know a family (who shall remain nameless) who spent so much dough on useless Christmas presents and other junk for their family that now, they can't pay their phone bill. People still spend like idiots [8\|] .

Termyn8or -> RE: Hollyday retails sales 40 year low (1/9/2009 8:54:27 PM)
Mark, I tend to respect your opinions in matters like this because you are in business now. You have the big chair. I've had one, and been offered a few others, in fact at one time I had three shops that were offering me the golden keys. Not for me, but I have been quite involved. Over the years I have formed an opinion.. In retail sales, this could have been considered true up until recently : sell people something they do not need. This is where it really gets related to this thread, I dunno if you sell appliances, but let's assume you do for the moment. People need at least one fridge, stove and usually a washer and dryer. Some people have more, which many would consider a luxury. But then a deepfreeze can save you money. So anyway once their needs are fulfilled they won't be back looking for another one in most cases, until something breaks. However in some cases the same people will come in looking for new couches and endtables and such "because they are tired of the old stuff". Look what happened to the beanie baby market. Look at what happened to the video game and ipod type devices on the market. This was the best thing in the world six months ago, but now it is obsolete. In retail you know, where the cash will flow, you will go. So with cash, or credit as the case may be, the consumers have actually directed these events with the power of the dollar. When people first started buying imports years ago to save a few bucks, they spoke louder with those dollars than any voice could ever shout. Behold the results. Now someone is probably going to accuse me of being inconcise, because I just realized -It took alot of people to fuck this place up, practically all of us. So will this downturn make people reevaluate what is more important, function or form ? Can it change the "slant" of the economy in a positive way ? I think the possibility exists. If it happens, we will just have to adapt I guess. But will it happen ? T PS, this may seem to be directed at one person, but it's not, that's why it's out in the forum. T

SilverMark -> RE: Hollyday retails sales 40 year low (1/10/2009 3:11:56 AM)
What gets to me Term is simple....in this realignment no one with the last name Walton is going to be hurt, it isn't Macy's that will fold. It is the number of independent retailers that can weather a storm like tis for awhile but, not for long that are going to be swept away. What if the only place to buy those TVs is Best Buy, the only Big Box non discounter is Macy's as for the discounters only Wal Mart, truly that cannot be good for the public. So this anti-consumerism isn't going to change much aside from the smaller businesses ability to exist. Macy's is closing 11 poorly performing stores they will still have over 1000 throughout the country they are not exactly in danger, Wal Mart has slowed growth in numbers of stores only, and have enough empty boxes floating around they could re-open and expand without breaking ground at any new locations. When it comes to certain retailers that were in trouble before this current situation they were not on top of their game before and would have failed anyway, very few will not fail soon if there isn't some movement in the market place. I know I am missing a number of good retailers that can make it and probably will like Kohls and a few others but to preach that it is a good thing for this realignment to take place and that somehow that is good for America, I will not buy into. The Chinese production has fallen dramatically but there are only a few American manufacturers left to fill in, we have screwed the pooch to some degree and it is a huge issue but, it isn't good to have the numbers of people in retail that will take the hit, to fail, become unemployed and add to the economic problem we have. I worry more for the independent business person more everyday, I see more of them shutting down, laying people off, not replacing sold goods, these are the ones I worry for. Yes I am one of them but, I am not totally dependent on my stores, I am one of the lucky ones, if I liquidated tomorrow I would be better off financially then I am today. My leases are short and Going Out of Business means a chance to walk away with money not debt but, I won't because I have a number of people who depend on my judgment and they will buckle down and maximize the opportunity that does exist. I refuse to let them or myself down! I take it very personal!

Lorr47 -> RE: Hollyday retails sales 40 year low (1/10/2009 3:49:53 AM)
quote: Take the ubiquitous TV set. We here might not be all that impressed but there are alot of them out there and they break down, brother do they break down, especially the new ones. Close to half of them break down within the first year and I know one guy had that happen who was told the parts were no longer available. This by a factory authorized technician. Off topic but: We had a TV go out. We have to have three in the house to satisfy the children, grandchildren and great grandchildren. However, the RCA is 31 years old. I tried to look up the repairmen I had known. They are all dead. Anyone have an idea where or how I could get it fixed? I would rather repair it on site because we will need four men to move it. (31 years old is not the oldest. The Panasonic is over 33 years old and works fine.) Newest one is a piece of garbage; cannot understand the audio half the time.

TheUtopian -> RE: Hollyday retails sales 40 year low (1/10/2009 3:57:18 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: SilverMark It is simply put a malaise in the market...I see it within my own stores everyday...almost an abject fear of spending, it has nothing to do with the wealthy not being able to buy Buffy and Biff what it is their little heart desires as much as it does with the average consumer fearing for his economic life! This is not the act of some huge conspiracy to deprive the wealthy, they can buy and will be able to buy again next week and the week after if they chose to do so. The market in good times take those out that are too heavily leveraged or those that are indeed poorly managed. What is taking place now, is not the taking of the poorly managed but the death of some very good retailers and at this point still mostly small retailers not the Large category killers or the predatory marketers. I have stores that sell both very high end goods and stores that sell medium to medium low end goods and the ones at present that are doing the best and carrying the others are the higher end stores. It isn't the wealthy that is getting killed here it is the average guy, not the ones in the BMW's but the ones in the F-150s. The Wal Marts of the world will survive out of shear size, those that over serve the consumer with money, will survive, what will not survive is your local mall or your local retailer. The Jeweler, the furniture store the appliance guy, Macy's will be there at the end as will Wal Mart the rest may not, and due to little fault of their own. There is nothing "good" to be found in the demise of retailers as some seem to think nor is there good to be found in the diminishing of the American consumer....that is strictly B.S. In deference to your condescension there Utopian, the situation is dire for a number of retailers with very little hope of immediate help, there is nothing natural about a huge part of the American economic life wasting away due to little fault that would lie with those who own and operate retail stores. I thought it was far less condescending than your pointed dig about the free cheese. But you know what....that's no excuse as I loathe condescending folks. So my apologies to you.... Here's what is true : Most folks appreciate a guy like you ; a non-big-box, non-corporate guy who's thrown his hat into the ring to compete with entities with less creativity but far more wherewithal.... I think what little bitching was going on in the top part of the thread was not directed at retailers such as yourself. And you're absolutely correct in that what’s happening is no fault of retailers. Retailers only cater to demand - So this crisis could not possibly be blamed on them. From my standpoint, the root cause of this whole economic crisis---and the souring of our retail trade---falls on the gross imbalance between ''capital '' and ''labor'' that's transpired in the period since the end of the Nixon Presidency. We've transitioned from a savings-driven, production-based economy, to that of one with the hallmarks of credit-based consumption and service-industry wages. During this transitioning, the country as a whole, has gone from the worlds largest ''creditor'' nation-state, to that of the largest ''debtor'' nation-state. Virtually every sector of our manufacturing base has either been stripped, sold off, outsourced, or had its labor off-shored. Manufacturing is what made this country prosperous. You can see what's happened to it.....And it and its people will not become prosperous again aligned under a service-wage mentality mindset. During this transitioning, a whole series of various types of bubbles were crafted in order to keep the economy flush with liquidity that normally would have been stimulated through the steady growth of an increasing/ongoing manufacturing base. What you're seeing right now is the implosion of the ''mother'' of all bubbles ---- The easy-credit, lending/real-estate, false-equity bubble that's been fueling this economy right along since shortly after 9/11. Home equity has been dissolved and credit-lines erased. As far as the individual consumer....It's not matter of their credit line being erased, but rather their ''borrowing capacity''/''ability to pay back'' eroded. They've finally come to grips with the fact that they can no longer fall back on '' home equity'', or amass debt through their credit cards anymore. In short….our retail sector is collapsing - because the mother of all bubbles has deflated. - R

NeedToUseYou -> RE: Hollyday retails sales 40 year low (1/10/2009 5:28:45 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Dnomyar SilverMark I got goverment cheese from a friend and actually it is better than store brought cheese. This is a fact. Another fact is if I could find someone that would sell my a brick of it I'd pay 20.00 for it. You can not beat government cheese grilled cheese sandwiches. They are simply the best. I know because I was on welfare when I was a kid, and we used to get it from the YMCA. They could pay for the food program if they'd brand it and sell it! It's good shit.

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