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RE: Global Warming- need any more proof? - 1/13/2009 7:34:46 AM   
Hippiekinkster


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Evility

Supposed to be in the teens this week in Georgia.

GEORGIA.

I know it's winter but still, this is Georgia.

So much for your global warming.



1. I've seen it get down into the teens before.
2. Weather is not climate.

Climate: The eastern half of Hawaii has a tropical rain forest climate.
Weather: It's raining today.

I know it's an exceedingly difficult concept.

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RE: Global Warming- need any more proof? - 1/13/2009 7:39:19 AM   
LaTigresse


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It is - 6 F. here right now.......not warm at all.

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RE: Global Warming- need any more proof? - 1/13/2009 8:01:38 AM   
samboct


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"Well, it almost seems like "you" are picking the cause first, and then using the best scale to best backup the argument for that "cause".

In terms of picking the scales though- that's easy.  It's simply curiousity.

1)  What happens to the CO2 that results from burning coal or oil?  Any reasonably sharp kid could ask this question.  Ans: goes into the atmosphere and stays there for 75 years or so.  The scale is chosen to show the time frame of production and the clearing process.  The fact that the clearing process is very slow has everybody worried.
2)  Once it's in the atmosphere- what does it do?  Again, any kid could ask this question.  Ans: lab experiments have shown that CO2 traps photons  (mechanism discussed in prior posts/different thread.) hence, it functions as a "greenhouse gas".

Once the physical processes have been identified, the scale is set to show changes.  It's no different than picking a scale for anything else- human lifetime as an example.  You could show 10,000 years, but it really wouldn't be all that informative.  Nor would 10 minutes.  100 years works well.

"Is there evidence that carbon is causing the rise in temps, or is the rise in temps causing the rise in carbon levels?"

Tough question (and it sounds familiar- but I'll go through it again for the benefit of those who haven't heard what's going on here)-

The paleontological record shows that CO2 is a lagging indicator of climate change.  There are two main causes of climate change- geological changes (contintent shifts, volcanic eruptions, and possibly turnover in the oceans- but maybe that's due to geology?) and changes in the earths orbit.  The Earth's orbit goes through periodic shifts every 10,000 years or so which causes climate change and is responsible for the ice ages we've had in the past couple million years (maybe more?).  The geological record shows that CO2 levels lag climate change- assuming the dating data is correct (and that may be a big assumption as well, but it's a diversion.)  I don't know why CO2 levels increase after a warming period- but its not relevant since those causes for warming are absent now- we have a pretty good idea of the earth's orbit.

However, the data that we've accumulated now shows that CO2 can have a different function as well- which is to force climate change due to trapping photons.  As I've said before- if you want to argue with this theory of global climate change-you're now arguing with physics.  A quick recap

There are only two sources of heat for the planet- geological processes and the sun.  We've now got good enough data on solar output for 3 cycles to show that the observed warming doesn't match changes in solar output.  That leaves geological processes.  Radioactive decay is reasonably well understood and is a simple logarithmic decay.  So unless you have evidence that shows that somehow, these radiological processes have sped up in the past 1.5 centuries, the amount of heat released from geological processes is reasonably constant.  (Volcanoes may be a perturbation.)  If the planet is warming up, then the only other possibility is that some cooling process has been altered.  The smoking gun here is the increase in CO2.  Other explanations require tossing out Occam's Razor and become far less likely.

Hence, the most likely conclusion is that we have global climate change driven by release of CO2 due to anthropogenic activities.


Sam




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RE: Global Warming- need any more proof? - 1/13/2009 8:55:27 AM   
servantforuse


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France supplies 75% of it's power needs with nuclear power.

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RE: Global Warming- need any more proof? - 1/13/2009 9:02:24 AM   
redwoodgirl


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This is great, I love it.
Yesterday the high here got up to 84*, today its supposed to be 76*. The nights are still as cold as they usually are. Not a cloud in the sky, you should have seen the stars and moon! Breathtaking I tell you. The news this morning said no rain untill the 21st. Its usually raining all that time non stop.
Not that Im complaining, its giving me a chance to get the jungle at my new place cut back that the person before me left behind.
But I swear there easily could have been an earthquake yesterday, tho none were reported that i heard of - whew!
Yesterday when it was 84* here, it was -55* in Anchorage, and on the big map, we really arent that far away from each other....

< Message edited by redwoodgirl -- 1/13/2009 9:03:52 AM >


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RE: Global Warming- need any more proof? - 1/13/2009 9:44:17 AM   
popeye1250


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I just hope P.E. Obama hasn't been hoodwinked into being a "believer" in "GW".
He was trained as a lawyer not an engineer though.
Hey! My scrotum is itchy, should I scratch it or is it,....."global warming?"

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RE: Global Warming- need any more proof? - 1/13/2009 9:46:48 AM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: samboct

1)  What happens to the CO2 that results from burning coal or oil?  Any reasonably sharp kid could ask this question.  Ans: goes into the atmosphere and stays there for 75 years or so.  The scale is chosen to show the time frame of production and the clearing process.  The fact that the clearing process is very slow has everybody worried.

2)  Once it's in the atmosphere- what does it do?  Again, any kid could ask this question.  Ans: lab experiments have shown that CO2 traps photons  (mechanism discussed in prior posts/different thread.) hence, it functions as a "greenhouse gas".


Ok, I think you are saying:

1. Man is putting C02 in the air.
2. This excess C02 is responsible for Global Warming (Climate Change).


quote:

ORIGINAL: samboct

"Is there evidence that carbon is causing the rise in temps, or is the rise in temps causing the rise in carbon levels?"

Tough question -

The paleontological record shows that CO2 is a lagging indicator of climate change. 

There are two main causes of climate change- geological changes ... and changes in the earths orbit.  The Earth's orbit goes through periodic shifts every 10,000 years or so which causes climate change and is responsible for the ice ages we've had in the past couple million years (maybe more?). 

The geological record shows that CO2 levels lag climate change- assuming the dating data is correct (and that may be a big assumption as well, but it's a diversion.) 


We agree then, that the historical, geological record indicates that in all other temperature changes in the past, the temperature first rose, then the level of atmospheric C02 rose?

If so, would this not tend to suggest that rising C02 levels is the result, not the cause of global warming?

Some questions:

1. Which rose first this time (the last century), global temperature or C02?

2. What percentage of world-wide heat retention does atmospheric C02 cause, based on it's prevalence in the atmosphere? How is it ranked against all other "hot house" gases, including H20?


quote:

ORIGINAL: samboct

I don't know why CO2 levels increase after a warming period- but its not relevant since those causes for warming are absent now- we have a pretty good idea of the earth's orbit.


I don't know why CO2 levels increase after a warming period

Oceanic outgassing?

but its not relevant since those causes for warming are absent now

On which climate model do you rely upon for this assertion?

Are you aware that the first few IPCC studies did not take solar warming into account at all?

Do you know why the infamous "hockey stick" diagram is currently missing from the last IPCC report?

Do you know what the average lag time is, between rising temperatures, and increased C02 levels?

Once atmospheric C02 levels reached their peak in other geological periods, how long was it before temperatures again fell?

quote:

ORIGINAL: samboct

However, the data that we've accumulated now shows that CO2 can have a different function as well- which is to force climate change due to trapping photons.  As I've said before- if you want to argue with this theory of global climate change-you're now arguing with physics.  A quick recap

There are only two sources of heat for the planet- geological processes and the sun.  We've now got good enough data on solar output for 3 cycles to show that the observed warming doesn't match changes in solar output.  That leaves geological processes.  Radioactive decay is reasonably well understood and is a simple logarithmic decay.  So unless you have evidence that shows that somehow, these radiological processes have sped up in the past 1.5 centuries, the amount of heat released from geological processes is reasonably constant.  (Volcanoes may be a perturbation.)  If the planet is warming up, then the only other possibility is that some cooling process has been altered.  The smoking gun here is the increase in CO2.  Other explanations require tossing out Occam's Razor and become far less likely.

Hence, the most likely conclusion is that we have global climate change driven by release of CO2 due to anthropogenic activities.


See question 2 above (2. What percentage of world-wide heat retention does atmospheric C02 cause, based on it's prevalence in the atmosphere? How is it ranked against all other "hot house" gases, including H20?)

Firm


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RE: Global Warming- need any more proof? - 1/13/2009 10:00:27 AM   
Coldwarrior57


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The notion of "global warming" , has become its own RELIGION,
If you doubt its true , then you are to be discounted and rediculed.

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RE: Global Warming- need any more proof? - 1/13/2009 10:13:29 AM   
UncleNasty


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Whenever reasonable inquiry and/or dissent are excluded from discussions there is something amiss in process. Results become suspect.

As coldwarrior stated "If you doubt its true, then you are to be ridiculed and discounted."

I don't see exclusion of reasonable inquiry to be the best way to determine the facts, or to make the most sound decisions.

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RE: Global Warming- need any more proof? - 1/13/2009 10:23:48 AM   
BamaD


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You are aware, aren't you that the latest predictions are that we are now going into an ice age?   And people wonder why these things are not taken seriously

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RE: Global Warming- need any more proof? - 1/13/2009 10:27:01 AM   
colouredin


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BamaD

You are aware, aren't you that the latest predictions are that we are now going into an ice age?  


Urm not to pick holes but technically we are living in an ice age, an ice age is defined by a period where there are polar ice caps on the earth.

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RE: Global Warming- need any more proof? - 1/13/2009 10:56:35 AM   
samboct


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"We agree then, that the historical, geological record indicates that in all other temperature changes in the past, the temperature first rose, then the level of atmospheric C02 rose?

Yup.

If so, would this not tend to suggest that rising C02 levels is the result, not the cause of global warming?

Nope.  Show me where in the historical record there is evidence of a century of conversion of large masses of coal and oil to gas and particulates and I'll agree it's relevant.

Some questions:

1. Which rose first this time (the last century), global temperature or C02?

CO2.

2. What percentage of world-wide heat retention does atmospheric C02 cause, based on it's prevalence in the atmosphere? How is it ranked against all other "hot house" gases, including H20?"

Rephrase the question please.  Cooling is on the basis of photon emission and mass emission.  Basically either photons are ejected from the planet for cooling or high energy gases leave the atmosphere thereby cooling.  (Same principle as evaporative cooling.)  Absent cooling, the solar radiation causes an increase in heat in the planet.
 
In terms of mass however, CO2 is the component of the atmosphere that's been increasing most rapidly over the past century.  Yes, there are other gases that are more efficient at trapping photons than CO2, but CO2 mass is several orders of magnitude higher than any other changed atmospheric component.
 
"I don't know why CO2 levels increase after a warming period

Oceanic outgassing?

but its not relevant since those causes for warming are absent now

On which climate model do you rely upon for this assertion?"

 
As noted above- climate changes are based on either geology, changes in solar flux, or orbit.  We've got good measurements now on all of the above- the first IPCC report noted that a change in solar flux could possibly account for the observed temperature variations, but it was unlikely.  That assertion has now been shown to be correct based on continued monitoring of the solar flux. 
 
"Are you aware that the first few IPCC studies did not take solar warming into account at all?
 
Nope- but it's shown to be irrelevant- no statistical correlation between solar flux and temperature.


Do you know why the infamous "hockey stick" diagram is currently missing from the last IPCC report?

Nope.

Do you know what the average lag time is, between rising temperatures, and increased C02 levels?

See above- relevance to current physical process under discussion?  This is only of interest if the same physical process as was seen in the geological record is causing the current global climate change- since these physical processes have been ruled out- looking at CO2 in this fashion is irrelevant.

Once atmospheric C02 levels reached their peak in other geological periods, how long was it before temperatures again fell?"

See above.



CW 57- Science may be it's own religion, and then clearly I'm a believer.  But the science of global climate change passes the test of being good science based on a hypothesis that can be disproven and data.  (Creationism cannot be disproven.)  Show scientists data that backs up your contention that global climate change is bad science and you might find an audience.  However, there have been a large number of well funded efforts to do just that which have met with failure.  The presented data remains the final arbiter of whether or not the hypothesis of global climate change is correct.

I will point out that there remain attempts to convince the public that perpetual motion machines are possible, along with the claims that "scientists have stifled these findings".  See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qaCk0jK--8s for example.  In both cases- over unity motors and global climate change- there are significant economic disruptions dependent on the outcome.  In short, absent the financial motivation for showing that global climate change in error, and the debate falls to below a whisper.


Sam

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RE: Global Warming- need any more proof? - 1/13/2009 11:15:15 AM   
Mercnbeth


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quote:

W 57- Science may be it's own religion, and then clearly I'm a believer.

One big problem with that sam, your 'science' doesn't meet the key criteria to be science. Your religion can not be applied to prior historical results or be plugged in to predict prior global climate conditions with or without human involvement. Until then its a theory, no more accurate than the prediction of the would ending in 2012, except those wanting to believe in the Mayan prediction have a stone calender as empirical evidence and not a business plan.

It isn't science because you, or any special interest making money, says so. It's a theory, one that happens to be filling the coffers of too many people to not have it be a major motivating force. The believers, like yourself, are most dangerous, because they have a little bit of information and apply it to the exclusion of all other contrary evidence. Many using 'political correctness' as a hammer to beat down any dissension in the ranks.

It's become so much of a religion that other religions are adding it to their dogma. Recently the Church of England Bishop Goron Mursell compared the naysayers to Josef Fritzl the man who kept his 24 year old daughter in the basement.  

To make his point in a recent pastoral letter, Bishop Mursell writes: :
quote:

And yet Josef Fritzl represents merely the most extreme form of a very common philosophy of life: I will do what makes me happy, and if that causes others to suffer, hard luck. In fact you could argue that, by our refusal to face the truth about climate change, we are as guilty as he is—we are in effect locking our children and grandchildren into a world with no future and throwing away the key. We are right to be disgusted at these crimes.


The “Eco-Congregation” concept that encourages churches across the British Isles to participate in “greening the cornerstone” with resources “to help churches put God’s House in green order.” The depth of action recommended in their 12-page “Church Check-up” makes for interesting reading.

Well, at least, for the sake of the environment, us 'heretics' won't be burned this time around; unless of course, some people take advantage of that 'ultimate carbon offset' program I suggested earlier.

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RE: Global Warming- need any more proof? - 1/13/2009 1:19:26 PM   
samboct


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"One big problem with that sam, your 'science' doesn't meet the key criteria to be science. Your religion can not be applied to prior historical results or be plugged in to predict prior global climate conditions with or without human involvement. Until then its a theory, no more accurate than the prediction of the would ending in 2012, except those wanting to believe in the Mayan prediction have a stone calender as empirical evidence and not a business plan."
 
Sounds to me like you don't understand the terms "theory" and science as shown in this post-But the science of global climate change passes the test of being good science based on a hypothesis that can be disproven and data.  (Creationism cannot be disproven.)  Show scientists data that backs up your contention that global climate change is bad science and you might find an audience.  However, there have been a large number of well funded efforts to do just that which have met with failure.  The presented data remains the final arbiter of whether or not the hypothesis of global climate change is correct.

Science is never more than theory, backed up by data.  In contrast to religion, scientists are accustomed to theories evolving over time, whereas the dogma of religion (or law) is much more resistant to change.  In my science career, I've seen the conjecture of global climate change pass the test of accumulating data to now be considered a solid theory.  Doesn't mean it can't be overturned, just that it's rather robust.
 
Let's try another analogy to deal with the previous CO2 record.
 
Here are two reactions involving CO2
 
C2H5OH + 3O2 --> 2 CO2 + 3 H2O + heat
 
H2CO3 --> CO2 + H20
 
The first reaction is the combustion of ethanol, the second reaction is the dissociation of carbonate.  In both cases, the end products of the reaction involve carbon dioxide.  How much information does one reaction give you about another?
 
Both you and Firm are stressing that if you can't explain the production of CO2 from the second reaction, you get to ignore the production of CO2 from the first reaction.  But my comment to Firm still holds true-since the reaction we're looking at, i.e. generation of carbon dioxide from coal or oil- whatever geological processes produced carbon dioxide millenia or eons ago is irrelevant.
 
"It isn't science because you, or any special interest making money, says so. It's a theory, one that happens to be filling the coffers of too many people to not have it be a major motivating force. The believers, like yourself, are most dangerous, because they have a little bit of information and apply it to the exclusion of all other contrary evidence. Many using 'political correctness' as a hammer to beat down any dissension in the ranks."
 
I haven't made any comments here about "political correctness"- only that if you want to argue with the theory of anthropogenically induced global climate change, you're now arguing with sound physics.  There are lots of folks who choose to argue with physics and a significant portion of the populace believes in astrology.  That's their choice- and it sounds like yours as well.  From my perspective, the theory of global climate change has been subjected to signficant scientific debate and it's withstood the challenges.
 
Sam




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RE: Global Warming- need any more proof? - 1/13/2009 2:20:02 PM   
Mercnbeth


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sam,
Theory means not factually backed up by results; 'hypothesis' is a synonym for speculation. The 'presented data' is being interpreted to provide a self fulfilling prediction in line with the hypothesis and the theory - not fact. Just keep that in mind.

Congratulations for finding people who believe the same things that you do and plug results in support. You have a congregation, not an irrefutable fact driven based platform.

Why do you fail to address reality instead of theory, the factual historical evidence of prior 'global warming' conditions exceeding current levels? Were all those past events 'quirks' or 'anomalies' that are discounted because they don't fit the hypothesis? When I went to school no hard science professor would allow me to get away with that. Maybe as a corollary to global warming is the dumbing down of humanity. You and the other 'wizards' never seem to want to talk about how the world was formerly much warmer. Another inconvenient truth; most of the warming times coincided with the best times for the general human population.

Because you choose to ignore the monetary implications of this religion it doesn't mean they aren't relevant. Check the source of funds of those "well funded" studies and you'll see that they are as neutral as the cigarette companies survey of independent physicians.

The theory has another side:
quote:

A 2008 survey of 51,000 Canadian scientists revealed 68 per cent disagreed with the claim that global warming science is settled. And 31,000 American scientists have signed the Global Warming Petition Project that urges the U. S. government to reject the Kyoto treaty and any similar proposals, saying there is "no convincing scientific evidence" of a "catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere." Source: http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/story.html?id=46999d7c-4078-4fe4-a0e0-3df0eaac0f4f 
But your scientist are right and these are using 'faulty science'?

Why is this hypothesis and theory, taking a different view of the same CO2 issue less valid?
quote:

Okay, children, let’s all sit up straight at our desks. We are going to begin 2009 with a lesson about carbon dioxide (CO2).


Why do we need to know about CO2? Because the President-elect, several of his choices for environmental and energy agencies, the Supreme Court and much of the U.S. Congress has no idea what they are talking about and, worse, want to pass legislation and regulations that will further bankrupt the United States of America.


Do I have your attention now?


For the purpose of the lesson, I will be borrowing heavily from a paper on CO2 written by Robert A. Ashworth [http://www.ilovemycarbondioxide.com/pdf/No_Evidence.pdf]. It requires some understanding of science, but anyone with a reasonable education and common sense should be able to read it on their own. Ashworth is a chemical engineer.


Suffice it to say that if any of the nitwits babbling about CO2 and global warming ever went to any of the several dozen excellent websites that provide accurate scientific data and analysis, they would cease from their abusive manipulation of the public and perhaps find honest work.

To begin at the beginning; at the heart of the global warming hoax is the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. While it purports to represent the views of thousands of scientists, it does not. As Ashworth notes, “Most scientists do not agree with the CO2 global warming premise. In the United States 31,072 scientists, including the author, have signed a petition rejecting the Kyoto global warming agreement.” An additional 1,000 scientists are being verified to be added to the list. Thousands more exist who find the assertion the CO2 will destroy the Earth totally absurd.

Here’s what you need to know; if an increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) is directly related, i.e. causes changes in the Earth’s temperature, there would be a direct correlation between the two. As CO2 rose, we would see a comparable rise in the Earth’s temperature. This correlation does not exist.


Global warming liars, however, insist that CO2 builds up on the atmosphere over a 50 to 250 year period, but this is untrue. “Every year around April, increased CO2 absorption by plants in the Northern Hemisphere starts reducing the CO2 in the atmosphere,” notes Ashworth, “and the reduction continues until around mid-to-late August when plants start to go dormant.”


“It is clear that nature reacts very fast in its consumption of carbon dioxide.” Farmers call this the growing season, followed by the harvest season, followed by snow and cold during which nothing grows. Modern civilization, beginning about 5,000 years ago, is predicated on the ability to provide food to both humans and livestock, all based on these obvious seasonal cycles.


The ancient Egyptians and Mayans understood the seasons, but they are apparently too difficult a concept for today’s many ex-politicians, some PhD’s, United Nation’s flunkies, and high school teachers.


Warming and cooling cycles are well known throughout human history, reaching back to the days of ancient Rome. There were Viking settlements in Greenland because they arrived in warmer times. By 1410 the place froze up. Shakespeare lived during a Little Ice Age when the Thames would freeze too. The man-made emissions of CO2 had nothing, zero, to do with these climate events.


The IPCC, however, with its agenda to tax and control energy use that produces CO2, is not based on either the obvious or more complex science involved. Its “data” is the invention of computer models that are deliberately manipulated to produce false results which, in turn, can be announced and repeated worldwide.

“Taxing carbon,” Ashworth adds, “would do absolutely nothing to improve the climate but would be devastating hardship to the people of the world.”  For example, U.S. Representative John Dingell’s plan to tax carbon would add 13% to the cost of electricity and 32% to the cost of gasoline; just what we need during a Recession that threatens to become a Depression.

Dr. Tim Ball, a former climatology professor at the University of Winnipeg, recently asked, “How many failed predictions, discredited assumptions and evidence of incorrect data are required before an idea loses credibility? CO2 is not causing warming or climate change. It is not a toxic substance or a pollutant.”

It is time to rebuke everyone attempting to foist the global warming hoax and carbon taxes on the United States and the rest of the world. It is time let Congress and the White House know that Americans will not be ruled by laws that have no scientific merit.
Source: http://www.therealitycheck.org/2009/01/05/the-plain-truth-about-glorious-carbon-dioxide/ 


Same church of CO2 - different 'religion'; except this one doesn't mandate every non-believer be torched for tax money and lifestyle change because they say their theory is the 'one true way'. 

More reference:
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/sppi_originals/fallacies_about_global_warming.html

Money making schemes:
http://www.nafella.com/naflogger/?Catterwaller/How_to_Make_Money_on_Global_Warming
Funny:
http://www.blog4brains.com/2008/06/21/make-money-from-global-warming/

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RE: Global Warming- need any more proof? - 1/13/2009 3:12:58 PM   
CallaFirestormBW


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We've had tropical rainforests in what is now Canada, and polar ice caps covering most of North America and Europe. The climate is going to change. There is NO possible way that 6 billion people aren't contributing to the climate. That's just damned common sense... but what the climate is going to do to adapt... well, we're just going to have to wait and see.

Personally, I don't believe that humans can destroy the planet -- I'm pretty sure that the general balance of nature will destroy the human race first.... and there are some days I'm pretty sure we've outlived our welcome. I'm a lot more worried about the steadily increasing level of ignorance and just plain stupidity per capita in the human population. If we're not careful, we're going to 'stupid' ourselves to death.


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RE: Global Warming- need any more proof? - 1/13/2009 4:56:12 PM   
samboct


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Merc

Your version of how you use the word theory does not gybe with my usage.  Here's Wikipedia on the subject-

" The word theory has many distinct meanings in different fields of knowledge, depending on their methodologies and the context of discussion. Definitively speaking, a theory is the analysis of a set of facts in their relation to one another.[1] Additionally, in contrast with a theorem the statement of the theory is generally accepted only in some tentative fashion as opposed to regarding it as having been conclusively established. This may merely indicate, as it does in the sciences, that the theory was arrived at using potentially faulty inferences (scientific induction) as opposed to the necessary inferences used in mathematical proofs. In these cases the term theory does not suggest a low confidence in the claim and many uses of the term in the sciences require just the opposite.

Let me point out that "fact" is a term that scientists generally shun- there is long accepted theory and data.  (OK, simple stuff like makeup of atoms, periodic table, constants etc. are facts-it just is kind of weird to hear the term used this way.)  Furthermore-if a student of mine didn't know that during a lab he/she was doing an experiment to gather data to prove or disprove a hypothesis- he/she wasn't passing.  So I don't know what kind of teachers you had- but either you were a lousy student or me and your teachers wouldn't get along real well.  My hunch is they'd be shaking their heads with the statements you've written- and not in agreement.

"Why do you fail to address reality instead of theory, the factual historical evidence of prior 'global warming' conditions exceeding current levels? Were all those past events 'quirks' or 'anomalies' that are discounted because they don't fit the hypothesis? When I went to school no hard science professor would allow me to get away with that. Maybe as a corollary to global warming is the dumbing down of humanity. You and the other 'wizards' never seem to want to talk about how the world was formerly much warmer. Another inconvenient truth; most of the warming times coincided with the best times for the general human population."

I'm not going to debate history with you here- it's a red herring.  As noted in my earlier posts, carbon dioxide is a common reactant/product.  Understanding how one reaction produces carbon dioxide often tells you nothing about how a second reaction produces the same compound.  Nor does it tell you anything about how carbon dioxide is going to affect photons.  Let me point out that carbon dioxide and heat are some of the most common products of any chemical reaction involving carbon and oxygen.  This is why history is not necessary in physics or chemistry- and why the article you posted is largely irrelevant to the matter at hand.  Demanding to know how an unknown reaction (if it's unknown- I'm not sure.) produced carbon dioxide throughout the centuries does not apply to the current situation.

In terms of the "31,000 scientists" that are claimed to have signed such a petition.  This is highly suspicious- since I haven't met one of them and in the course of my professional travels I meet approx. 200 plus scientists/yr.  Granted, I haven't asked them specifically as to whether they've signed such a petition- but I haven't met one yet whose come forward and say so.  I will point out that the largest scientific organization- the American Chemical Society has some 160,000 members, so this number of 31,000 represents something less than a fifth of the membership of this organization.  I'd also be curious as to how mechanically that number of signatures was collected, since a large scientific meeting is typically around 4,000-5,000 people give or take and I typically go to at least 2 or 3 during the course of a year.  So if there is such a large cadre of people collecting signatures- how come I haven't been approached?  Or any of the people I work with?  Or were these signatures collected via the web?

Let me also point out that the number of people that work in environmental science isn't that large compared to say organic chemistry.  I doubt that there are 31,000 scientists in that field-I'd guess its less than 10,000.  Most of the several thousand authors on the IPCC reports were volunteers- so where's their financial interest?

Like all suggestions of a large cabal hiding the truth from the population- this one falls flat on its ass when examined closely.


Sam

< Message edited by samboct -- 1/13/2009 5:05:07 PM >

(in reply to CallaFirestormBW)
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RE: Global Warming- need any more proof? - 1/13/2009 5:09:02 PM   
Mercnbeth


Posts: 11766
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Taking the definition of 'theory' that suits your purposes is similar to interpreting the data to suit your 'global warming' position. Tunnel vision isn't convincing in either case. 
quote:

In terms of the "31,000 scientists" that are claimed to have signed such a petition.  This is highly suspicious
Why? Check the source, it provides the details and also responds to your later query regarding economic considerations.
quote:

I'm not going to debate history with you here- it's a red herring. 

I'm not asking you to debate history. I'm requiring you to fit your theory of 'global warming' into the facts of history. No debate - just address it.
quote:

This is highly suspicious- since I haven't met one of them and in the course of my professional travels I meet approx. 200 plus scientists/yr.  
Not surprising. When you belong to one church, its rare to visit others. When we go to a lifestyle event like Folsom, very few nuns show up. (Real ones anyway, the Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence are always there!)
quote:

Like all suggestions of a large cabal hiding the truth from the population- this one fall flat on its ass when examined closely.
Based upon finding the information in less than a minute of searching - I don't think anything is hidden. Your discounting of the opposing view notwithstanding there is enough of evidence on the other side to deny your position. What falls flat on its ass is that global warming is a fact.

A general comment - better to read what you disagree with and challenge yourself, than sit in front of any source and 'head-bob'.

(in reply to samboct)
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RE: Global Warming- need any more proof? - 1/13/2009 5:52:56 PM   
samboct


Posts: 1817
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Merc

I wasted about 20 minutes taking a look at that confused mishmash that you posted a link to.  If you believe anything in there- let me show you a wonderful bridge in Brooklyn.

1)  That "paper" would never be accepted by any decent journal.  It's a political polemic and would lead to cancellation of subscriptions.  It's also devoid of any real science.
2)  Most of the plots of temperature in the paper have no references.
3) When I tried to look at some of the references cited by the authors- either the data wasn't there or it bore no resemblance to what was in the paper.

One of the references I found seem to be rather damning- it's here-
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.html

This reference shows that the CO2 in the atmosphere has increased some 20% plus from 1960 to present day.  I suspect that this plot made it into Al Gore's movie.  The authors included it in the reference list, but I couldn't find where they used it in the paper (ref. 71).  That should also tell you about how well written the paper was.

If the quality of the paper is any indication- then I suspect that the collection of signatures has about as much truth to it as Joe McCarthy's list of Communists in the Senate.  By the way- I took a look at the 300 or so names from CT (my home state)- didn't recognize one of them.

Sam

(in reply to Mercnbeth)
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RE: Global Warming- need any more proof? - 1/13/2009 5:57:31 PM   
ArticMaestro


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"The science going on here isn't that difficult- it's just a lot of data collection and statistics that make it challenging.  Difficult science to me are things like fluid dynamics, metamaterials optical properties, magnetic materials storage  (look at the physics behind a single cell on a disk and how it actually gets written to- I'm lost in 5 minutes.), theoretical quantum calculations, pulse sequences for NMR or MRI (and I did a lot of NMR spectroscopy when I was actually in a lab.)- stuff like that."

Actually I am going to disagree.  While the things you refer to are indeed more complicated than just saying, "More CO2= warmer...Duh", they are far simpler to do science on.  In all of those you can isolate all the factors, change them and test them.... ie. do science.  You can't run experiments on the global climate, and we have no idea all of the inputs and factors that matter.

Computers are not magic divination machines.  You make a mathmatical model plug in data and get a result.  If your model says, "increase CO2 get warmer"  that is exactly the result that the computer model will give.  Doesn't matter how many or how dramatic the Java cartoons are. 

As several people have pointed out, and you purposefully ignore...none of the Programs when run backward give a correct reading of the past Climate.  None of them.  If you could provide one, you would easyily end this debate. 

And you seriously keep going on about a data set of 3 out of how many millions of solar cycles the sun the has undergone.  Good lord, would you think that if you get 3 heads in a row flipping a coin, it will allways be heads? 

Very weak dodge on my Kyoto question.   I am still waiting for a serious answer.  I never said that Job loss to China was due to Kyoto.  I meant that Job loss to China(who has ratified Kyoto, despite your unawareness of what it is) would be far worse.  China BTW has inc reased its GHG150%.  You should look around, Europe is having an economic catastrophy also, and they are not even close to actually complying with thier commitments.  In fact the only way they even come close is by bundling them with Eastern Europe. 

"As of year-end 2006, the United Kingdom and Sweden were the only EU countries on pace to meet their Kyoto emissions commitments by 2010. While UN statistics indicate that, as a group, the 36 Kyoto signatory countries can meet the 5% reduction target by 2012, most of the progress in greenhouse gas reduction has come from the stark decline in Eastern European countries' emissions after the fall of communism in the 1990s."

Again we know we are in a warming cycle that has lasted over 10,000 years, punctuated by increases in Cold.  The fact that we are in an interglacial period is undisputed.  What mechanism would have caused the Climate to stop warming, and then start again because of Man?

We do know that in the 1790s a period called the little Ice Age began, due to volcanic activity.  After the particulates cleared, the amount of Solar radiation getting into the lower atmosphere increased, and it began to get warmer.  a decade or so later the natural response of the planet to warming (increased CO2 in the atmosphere) began to kick in. 

Seems pretty simple to me, and closer to Occams razor.  You have to ignore data to get the result you want...recap..the models are not accurate when run backwards...and the climate moving around quite a bit since man has been keeping records..pretending that 3 cycles establishes a constant...and ignoring the data that says Co2 increases follow temperature rise.  Ignoring data to make the theory work,is not occams razor or Science.

Maybe some people think that Grant commitees or Thesis review by untrained people is the same thing as "peer review" of a scientific theory.  I know its not.

(in reply to samboct)
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