Vaughner
Posts: 381
Joined: 5/30/2008
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amw is technically correct, and even when new technology is brought out it often takes years or even decades or more before it becomes mainstream. While some of the material in the film itself is outdated.
1) Bit channels, referring to computer processing power. If you go out right now and buy a "top of the line" computer, you will be getting a 64-bit Processor. They say these are something new and great, they are not. Anyone remember the Nintendo-64? (Granted it was synchronized 32's instead of a 64 but I digress) Or how about a Playstation 2, not 3, 2 with a 128 Bit Processor. Much technology has been around for a considerable amount of time, but it takes years before it becomes mainstream. Only the MOST popular items reach proliferation quickly.
2) Predicting a computer that will outperform the human brain? I love seeing this in videos and magazines. Information on a Motherboard already travels many times faster than neural impulses through the human brain, and has for some time. That is the difference in conductivity between nerves, and silver/gold/solder, etc. Also consider that computer may be able to calculate Pi to the xth digint in mere seconds whereas you may require a minute or two. Keep in mind during this time your brain is processing data from all of your nerves, operating all of your organs, filtering out un-needed information, and leaving what is left over to handling your conscious thought. The actual computing power of the brain is difficult to quantify.
Also, for Star Trek fans you may remember Commander Data has a "blah blah, TerraFLOP processing speed."
FLOPS are the true measure of processing capability, IBM recently created a PetaFLOP processor. (A full order of magnitude higher) yet still it cannot produce human capabilities. My personal theory is that this is a limitation of digital devices as they all operate on Binary Code 0=No, 1=Yes, with no character or concept of maybe, but again I digress.
In the 50's they predicted robots would be cleaning my house, my car would fly, my shoes would lace themselves, I would live to be over 200 years old, and entire meals could be reduced to pill form.
I tend to beleive predictions such as this only rarely, there is the old saying the more things change the more they stay the same. The only big change I see in the future is the influence on global events of other nations increasing. Its not that the US is falling behind, it is that after decades of the US and USSR holding all of the technology advantages, other nations are catching up. It is always easy to catch up to a higher technology level, than to raise the bar itself. Advancement of technology usually goes hand in hand with advancement of civilization, the other nations are scaling the ladder. Nations like people are unique because they are the sum of the people within, and like any comparing of people some will excel in one area, and others in another.
Anyway I am rambling here, for those whose eyes are crossing this is simply what happens when my opinionated nature combines with boredom. This and trivia games.
< Message edited by Vaughner -- 1/21/2009 10:44:24 PM >
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