HollywoodExecDom
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Joined: 5/12/2008
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First, everything involves risk. Sky diving, boxing, football, gynastics, you name it, it involves risk of either death or some sort of permanent bodily harm - torn MCLs, long term arthritis, head trauma, etc.
Its ridiculous to think sex shouldn't involve risk as well.
The major difference is that in the case of football, driving, or boxing, there isn't a massive religious right to spend inordinate amounts of time and money making you fear those activities - because they weren't deemed sinful, perhaps because none of them were invented yet.
That said, there is variable risk to different sexual activities - much of which has has been systematically misrepresentated as of greater risk than it really is.
For example, you hear the "condom failure rate" statistic and usually its cited as "condoms are 90% effective." But at what? Usually the 90% effective refers the effectiveness of condoms in preventing pregnancy given "typical use" meaning the study polls people who identify themselves as condom users and then figure out how often they have unplanned pregnancies. But this is highly misleading... as it includes incidents when condoms weren't used.
So called "perfect use" tops out at 98%, and is when condoms are used everytime, but this can still include data sets that involve miss aplication of the condom such that an air bubble causes it to break or the condom slips off, the sexual partners use the condom beyond its recommended lifespan, the sex partners use lubricants that degrade the condom, a less reliable brand of condom is used, an old condom is used, the sex partners don't check the condom either before or afterwards for potential leaks, etc. etc. etc. (And this is not a per incidence number, this is a yearly number! So 98% of heterosexual couples who use condoms perfectly everytime during a year will suffer unplanned pregnancy - and Americans have sex is between 125 - 150 times a year )
Still, the best of the best success rate for condoms is 1% on a per incidence basis - though dick size versus condom specifications, use of certain lubricants, care used in storing condoms, and a billion other things can bring that number all the way down to nearly zero.
Why I point this out, is that condoms are tremendously effective in preventing disease and pregnancy when properly used and this is the sort of systematic distortions regarding safe sex that conservative groups put out there.
Fact is, if you are using condoms, as a hetrosexual male, you have almost no chance of catching HIV from vaginal sex in the US.
Here's the numeric breakdown:
Percent of US population with HIV: 0.7% (Varies by region, with Washington, DC topping out at 3%)
Rough percent of US HIV cases in the heterosexual community: 33% (erring high as this is technically the percent of NEW incidents attributed to the heterosexual community as a whole - note this stat doesn't break down what sex activity they acquired HIV from - i.e. anal sex, vaginal sex, vaginal sex on someone's period etc.)
Percent of HIV cases that involve females: 25% per year - meaning that incidence among women is about 1/3 what is for men.
Now for the shocker:
Transmission rate per incidence between an early stage HIV female and non-HIV male taking part in unprotected vaginal sex: 2%. (Note: HIV viral load is greatest during the initial months - so even this is massively erring high as most US HIV users 1) insist on safe sex 2) don't sleep around 3) are on medicines that keep their viral load close to zero) Don't believe the number: http://www.aidsmap.com/en/news/DC64824C-3739-44D5-9F25-A823E319C2D0.asp
Finally, condom breakage rate: 1% (I'll cite a pretty right in the middle number, even though, as I said, the competancy of a user can significantly effect the efficacy of a condom)
Doing the math then - likelihood of contracting HIV from heterosexual, vaginal sex with a condom:
1/100 people have HIV, 1/50 chance of contracting HIV from someone HIV positive by taking part in unprotected vaginal sex, 1/100 chance of condom breakage, 1/3 incidence of HIV among heterosexual women ...
So crunching data you have a 1 in 1.5 million chance of contracting HIV per incidence of vaginal sex with a condom assuming you absolutely randomly select a woman from the US population - which is a hell of an assumption. If through sex selection, you opt for young, less promiscuous, educated women without a history of injection drugs, and who receive regular doctor exams, chances are getting into the 1 in 10 million range.
So factually, if your fear is HIV - as long as you use condoms - you have a better chance of winning some lotteries.
But the broader point is UNDERSTAND THE RISKS! Its ridiculous the level of fear some people have of HIV and yet they still drive a car - when the number of fatal car crashes exceeds the number of new HIV infections a year: 39,252 fatal crashes to 37,367 new HIV infections nationwide in 2005.
HIV only becomes a public health concern when you realize that Americans have sex 142 times a year! Have vaginal sex 142 times, without a condom, in Washington DC, and your chance of contracting HIV in a year becomes 1 in 34!!!
Now that said...
Other STDs have higher transmission rates and higher incidence in the US, HepC being one to be concerned about.
If you're a woman, given the incidence of HPV, you absolutely should have the HPV vaccine. I can't stress this enough.
< Message edited by HollywoodExecDom -- 4/3/2009 6:55:52 PM >
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RE: Torn About Fluid Transfer - 
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