ThatDamnedPanda -> RE: Concerns and fears about the swine flu/Washing your hands a lot? Masks anyone? (5/1/2009 1:15:20 AM)
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ORIGINAL: MzMia Okay, I have to post this question. How scared or worried are you about the spread of the swine flu? Scared? Worried? Not at all. Neither is warranted yet. Concerned? Somewhat. It would be naive not to be. This virus has all three of the principal characteristics of a major flu pandemic - it's a new virus to which people have no apparent immunity, it's transmissible between humans, and it's a proven killer. The two unknown factors are how lethal it is, and how easily it transmits between humans. Right now, it seems very likely that it's nowhere near as lethal as it was first feared, and there's increasingly good reason to believe it's not terribly transmissible. But until we know the answers to those two questions, we need to be concerned, and take it very seriously. quote:
ORIGINAL: MzMiaI was at the grocery store yesterday, and I swear I saw a man with one of those blue masks on. Maybe he had a compromised immune system, or allergies, I don't know, but when I saw him enter the store with a blue mask on, I thought! SWINE FLU alert! Come on out to San Francisco. I was walking around on Fisherman's Wharf yesterday, and you couldn't swing a dead cat without knocking one of those masks off of someone's face. I'm only seeing them in tourist areas, though, so it's probably tourists who are overly concerned about all the confirmed cases that have popped up in the Bay Area the last day or two. Hell, i don't blame them. I'm not happy about being in the middle of it either. But that's probably more because I'm pissed about being sick and having my vacation ruined, not because I'm worried I only have days to live. quote:
ORIGINAL: MzMiaI really don't know a lot about this swine flu, but I am concerned about the spread of this flu in the fall and in the winter, when flu season really hits hard. That's the part that's got me concerned. I don't think the current version of the virus is all that lethal. What I'm concerned about is what it will mutate into over the next few months, and how lethal that variant will be. Being RNA-based, rather than DNA-based, means the genetic structure of the virus is extremely unstable and prone to frequent and dramatic mutations, and there's no way to predict what the characteristics will be of whatever virus it ultimately mutates into. It could be less lethal and less transmissible; it could be more lethal and less transmissible, less lethal and more transmissible - or, it could become both more lethal and more transmissible. There's just no way to know. The fact that it's an H1N1 virus, the same as the Spanish Flu, is unsettling. H1N1 has the proven potential to become a very deadly variant. quote:
ORIGINAL: MzMiaSeriously, who else is worried about the implications of this swine flu, combining with other flu's and/or MUTATING, making this fall and winter, miserable for many people? Will we all be wearing blue masks when we are out and about in 5 months? That's the concern. It may combine with other variants of the flu virus, because that's exactly what flu viruses do. This virus combines RNA from swine, bird, and human strains, so it's already combined with other flu viruses once. And it will mutate, because that's also what flu viruses always do. In fact, that's exactly how the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic appears to have occurred. Like this strain, that virus started out as a swine flu in the American Midwest, that mutated into a strain that was capable of infecting humans. That was the first mutation. When it first appeared in the spring of 1918, it was a relatively mild virus, and people really didn't get very sick from it. Within a few months, it had mutated again - this time, into the most lethal strain of influenza ever known, killing as many as 1 out of every 20 humans on the planet. And then, for no reason at all, it mutated once again. Into something that just... went away. For now, anyway. So who knows what next year's flu season will bring? We can't know yet. It could be nothing at all, it could be dire. It will probably be somewhere in between, and there's just no way anyone can know which end of the spectrum it's likely to fall closer to. I'm not going to lose any sleep over it, but I do plan on paying attention.
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