A data point on the conservative resurgence ...

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FirmhandKY -> A data point on the conservative resurgence ... (5/2/2009 5:56:01 AM)
Public Takes Conservative Turn on Gun Control, Abortion Extract: Public attitudes on a pair of contentious national issues -- gun control and abortion -- have moved in a more conservative direction over the past year. In both cases, the changes have been driven in part by relatively large shifts among men, while opinions among women have not changed very much. For the first time in a Pew Research survey, nearly as many people believe it is more important to protect the right of Americans to own guns (45%) than to control gun ownership (49%). As recently as a year ago, 58% said it was more important to control gun ownership while 37% said it was more important to protect the right to own guns. The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted March 31-April 21 among 1,521 adults reached on landlines and cell phones, also finds public opinion about abortion more closely divided than it has been in several years. Currently, 46% say abortion should be legal in most cases (28%) or all cases (18%); 44% believe that abortion should be illegal in most (28%) or all cases (16%). Since the mid-1990s, majorities have consistently favored legal abortion, with the exception of an August 2001 survey by ABC News/Washington Post. The proportion saying that abortion should be legal in all or most cases has declined to 46% from 54% last August. The decline in support for legal abortion has come entirely in the share saying abortion should be legal in most cases (from 37% to 28%); 18% say abortion should be legal in all cases, which is virtually unchanged from last August (17%). Currently, 44% say abortion should be illegal in most (28%) or all cases (16%), up slightly since last August (41%). A lot more interesting details in the link. I'm not making any outrageous claims that this means "something significant" all by itself. These numbers could even be an aberration. I and some other posters have made the argument that politics are cyclical, going back and forth from conservative to liberal and back again. To me, this study is a possible data point to back up that assertion, although I'm somewhat surprised at the time frame of the change - four months into a liberal Administration. Of course, perhaps there are cultural factors at work as well. Comments? Suggestions? Firm

Lucylastic -> RE: A data point on the conservative resurgence ... (5/2/2009 6:19:59 AM)
What troubles me Firm, is that the samples they use are too few, They also released details that shows that more devout religious people favour torture, , their sample size was 742. They doubled it (more or less) for the "poll" that you specified. How they can say these are reliable, or even close to the real story is bs. I just find it unreliable and pointless, when the size of the public is in the hundreds of millions. Lucy

DarkSteven -> RE: A data point on the conservative resurgence ... (5/2/2009 6:30:06 AM)
First, a general comment - I'm surprised that a sampling of 1521 adults could be considered representative. Firm, you commented about how you were surprised to see a conservative shift right after a liberal President was elected. I think that Obama's election was due to two things primarily - an incredible organization, and a complete rejection of Bush and his policies. Bush's supporters talked a lot about abortion and gun control, but I don't recall Bush himself identifying on those issues. I identify him with NCLB, loosening of regulations, and of course the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Patriot Act, and the economy. I suspect that there would be firm public opposition to Bush's stands any issues on which Bush took a known stand. But the social conservative stuff would have no "Bush effect".

FirmhandKY -> RE: A data point on the conservative resurgence ... (5/2/2009 6:43:21 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Lucylastic What troubles me Firm, is that the samples they use are too few, They also released details that shows that more devout religious people favour torture, , their sample size was 742. They doubled it (more or less) for the "poll" that you specified. How they can say these are reliable, or even close to the real story is bs. I just find it unreliable and pointless, when the size of the public is in the hundreds of millions. Lucy, You could well be correct. Polling and statistical sampling can be prone to errors and incorrect design. I've often taken to task studies with which I disagree. I didn't take the time to review their design and methodology, but Pew is a pretty reputable firm. Firm

FirmhandKY -> RE: A data point on the conservative resurgence ... (5/2/2009 6:50:48 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: DarkSteven First, a general comment - I'm surprised that a sampling of 1521 adults could be considered representative. See my above post to Lucy. Many, many national polls are based on similar numbers. It's the "magic" of numbers that allow claims of credibility in such cases, although they are always open to discussion. quote: ORIGINAL: DarkSteven Firm, you commented about how you were surprised to see a conservative shift right after a liberal President was elected. I think that Obama's election was due to two things primarily - an incredible organization, and a complete rejection of Bush and his policies. Bush's supporters talked a lot about abortion and gun control, but I don't recall Bush himself identifying on those issues. I identify him with NCLB, loosening of regulations, and of course the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Patriot Act, and the economy. I suspect that there would be firm public opposition to Bush's stands any issues on which Bush took a known stand. But the social conservative stuff would have no "Bush effect". Very interesting thought, Steven. So while the Republicans lost in reaction to a specific leadership mix, their social base could be re-energized over social issues rather quickly? Does that follow? I'm still uncertain of why the shift in the quoted timeframe - basically in the last year, of which only four months cover the Obama administration. Perhaps having a more liberal Congress over the last two years? Some other social factors? I really can't think of a reason that gives me the "ah ha!" feeling. Firm

TheHeretic -> RE: A data point on the conservative resurgence ... (5/2/2009 7:53:06 AM)
In all honesty, Firm, I'm going to hope the data about abortion is wrong. This is one of the areas where I'm completely out of step with the conservative platform/ideology. Hell, I'm off to the left of Pres. Obama on this issue. If the plan is going to be rebuilding on a socially conservative cornerstone, my support will be less than enthusiastic, at best.

Owner59 -> RE: A data point on the conservative resurgence ... (5/2/2009 8:10:13 AM)
Yeah,playing/preying on wedge issues is about all that conservatives have. If they played those issues honestly though,they wouldn`t get any traction. What we get is extremists trying to frighten and intimidate folks."Obama`s coming for your guns,Obama wants to kill UMs.The kinds of scary things that heard sheople.

MmeGigs -> RE: A data point on the conservative resurgence ... (5/2/2009 8:29:06 AM)
I trust the Pew surveys and think that their results are pretty reliable. I don't think that a shift on guns and abortion signals that the political pendulum is starting a swing back to the right. These are hot-button issues and get a lot of attention, but they're fairly far down the list of priorities for most folks. On issues that are nearer the top - health care, education, economy - attitudes seem to be moving to the left rather than the right. I think that the political pendulum has just begun it's swing toward the left. Young adults today are significantly to the left of their parents' and grandparents' generations in their attitudes concerning the top issues. I expect that it will be slow going at first and that there will be some tugs back toward the right, but I figure that we're at the start of maybe 20-30 years of steady leftward movement.

FirmhandKY -> RE: A data point on the conservative resurgence ... (5/2/2009 9:00:14 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: TheHeretic In all honesty, Firm, I'm going to hope the data about abortion is wrong. This is one of the areas where I'm completely out of step with the conservative platform/ideology. Hell, I'm off to the left of Pres. Obama on this issue. If the plan is going to be rebuilding on a socially conservative cornerstone, my support will be less than enthusiastic, at best. Abortion is one of those issues that I don't believe polls very well. I think the majority of conservatives I know believe what Clinton said: It should be legal, available, and rare. I think many libertarian/conservatives have the biggest problem with the fact that the "right" to abortion was suddenly "found" in the Constitution, while many see it as a legislative issue. But ... don't want to get into an "abortion" discussion, per se, just on the political impact (if any) of a movement toward social conservative issues. Firm

DarkSteven -> RE: A data point on the conservative resurgence ... (5/2/2009 10:07:33 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: FirmhandKY quote: ORIGINAL: DarkSteven First, a general comment - I'm surprised that a sampling of 1521 adults could be considered representative. See my above post to Lucy. Many, many national polls are based on similar numbers. It's the "magic" of numbers that allow claims of credibility in such cases, although they are always open to discussion. quote: ORIGINAL: DarkSteven Firm, you commented about how you were surprised to see a conservative shift right after a liberal President was elected. I think that Obama's election was due to two things primarily - an incredible organization, and a complete rejection of Bush and his policies. Bush's supporters talked a lot about abortion and gun control, but I don't recall Bush himself identifying on those issues. I identify him with NCLB, loosening of regulations, and of course the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Patriot Act, and the economy. I suspect that there would be firm public opposition to Bush's stands any issues on which Bush took a known stand. But the social conservative stuff would have no "Bush effect". Very interesting thought, Steven. So while the Republicans lost in reaction to a specific leadership mix, their social base could be re-energized over social issues rather quickly? Does that follow? I'm still uncertain of why the shift in the quoted timeframe - basically in the last year, of which only four months cover the Obama administration. Perhaps having a more liberal Congress over the last two years? Some other social factors? I really can't think of a reason that gives me the "ah ha!" feeling. Firm Firm, if you buy into my contention that there is strong anti-Bush sentiment that helped elect Obama, then you have to also accept that the stigma of Bush is attached to the GOP. While many posters have claimed that Dems went along with him, the fact remains that Bush damaged the brand. The GOP is really in a pickle. The major issues are ones on which they are branded as the ones who caused the mess - Iraq, and the economy, They cannot win on social issues until other issues give way to them.

Owner59 -> RE: A data point on the conservative resurgence ... (5/2/2009 11:20:45 AM)
Do conservatives not realize just how damaged they are? The GOP lying us into war and the cowardly way they keep us there year after year,killing and maiming thousands and thousands of our young men and women for nothing more than photo ops ,won`t be forgotten anytime soon. Mission Accomplished. bush`s spokes blond trying to play cute with the truth. To date,no one`s been held accountable for this massive deception on the American people or for the abuse of our GIs. They opperate as if all the lies and swagger,blood and sweat and bodybags are par for the course and normal. No conservatives.Not so fast. It almost seems like conservative want to throw those memories under the bus along with bush.They are quite willing to "move on" as though it`s all good and everything`s even-steven There are a lot of folks who won`t or can`t move on. bush announces the invasion of Iraq It`ll be a long time before folks are ready to make nice. ~~~~~~~~ I love the Chicks Cowboy Take Me Away I Can Love You Better Travelin Soldier Wide Open Spaces

FirmhandKY -> RE: A data point on the conservative resurgence ... (5/2/2009 11:50:18 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: DarkSteven Firm, if you buy into my contention that there is strong anti-Bush sentiment that helped elect Obama, then you have to also accept that the stigma of Bush is attached to the GOP. While many posters have claimed that Dems went along with him, the fact remains that Bush damaged the brand. The GOP is really in a pickle. The major issues are ones on which they are branded as the ones who caused the mess - Iraq, and the economy, They cannot win on social issues until other issues give way to them. I've never disputed that Bush "damaged the brand", but I don't think in the way that you may think. I don't think that the Iraq war, and the GWOT were what damaged Bush and the Republicans. Those issues were most vehemently denounced by the far left who never supported him anyway. I think what most damaged Republicans was Bush's lack of desire or inability to effectively "take the gloves off" when it came to his leftist opposition, and due the Republican Congress's failure to actually follow any of the stated principles of conservatives i.e. small government, fiscal responsibility in particular but not exclusively. And Bush's going along with them (how long before he vetoed a single bill?). The Democrats haven't, and aren't doing much better in my mind in many respects. Witness the public approval ratings for Congress since they took over a couple of years ago. As far as the Republicans .... I'm not sure why anyone would vote for pretty much any of the current bunch of "leaders", since they are nothing more than Demo-lite - and not too light at that. Why vote for the imitation, when you can vote for the real thing? [:D] I suspect that we will all be in a pickle over the next several years, as the Democracts lose as much credibility as the Republicans. Makes lots of room for a third party. Usually when that happens, one or both of the major parties take notice, change their policies or stated principles to squeeze the third party back out of the process. I do think that many people overlook the importance of the social issues, however. If the Republicans capitalize on those, and at least give a modicum of active practice to the same core political issues, I think they could be "back" a lot quicker than you realize. The Democrats have both and opportunity, and a burden now, since they are - with no room for doubt - responsible for the two active branches of our government. However, their behavior while they were out of power, and even since they won the previous Congression election doesn't lead me to believe that they have any more principles that they really hold dear, other than how much they can get, and how to stay in power. Also, since the two main issues that you quote (the Iraq war, and now the economy) are now owned by the Democrats (and the Iraq war was basically "over" even before Obama won election), if the economy stays tanked for any length of time ... it will be an albatross around THEIR neck, come the next election. Firm

FirmhandKY -> RE: A data point on the conservative resurgence ... (5/2/2009 11:56:37 AM)
Ya know, Owner, I really don't like youtube links, especially when they come in waves. So whatever you point is, it gets kinda lost when you can't say it effectively yourself. Firm

Vendaval -> RE: A data point on the conservative resurgence ... (5/2/2009 12:03:08 PM)
Another point to consider is that finding a representative sample of younger people needs to mesh with their prefered communication methods. They are much more likely to be talking about their political views on the Net and through text, Twitter, etc. than on a land line. quote: ORIGINAL: MmeGigs I think that the political pendulum has just begun it's swing toward the left. Young adults today are significantly to the left of their parents' and grandparents' generations in their attitudes concerning the top issues. I expect that it will be slow going at first and that there will be some tugs back toward the right, but I figure that we're at the start of maybe 20-30 years of steady leftward movement.

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