willbeurdaddy -> RE: Define God (8/6/2009 9:54:32 AM)
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ORIGINAL: lynk09 quote:
As I recall one of Behe's favorite "irreducibly complex" systems was the eye, which, as I said, has been bebunked. No , Behe never mentioned the eye as an example of irreducible complexity so it's impossible that he could've been debunked, with regard to the eye. Oh really? did you read Darwin's Black Box? He explicitly uses the eye as an example of irreducible complexity. I said "as I recall" because Behe was so easily dismissed that I havent bothered to open it in years. However I did confirm it. Page 29. quote:
Wildly improbably things dont happen every day? NZ's earlier bridge hand is a perfect example, the probability of any one hand happening is less than 1 in 600 billion. Every time one is dealt that result is wildly improbable, yet it happened. And yet, no one's jaw drops just because they get a hum drum bridge hand. However, if I were to get a hand where each card was of the same suit, I would be astonished. There is a reason for that, because that hand is a low-probability event with special properties. There are so many possible ways to get a hum drum bridge hand, if you were to make a formula and take this into account, I would suspect that the probability would turn to be very large for a hum drum bridge hand, and very small for a hand where all the cards are of the same suit. It is because that low probability event has structure to it. But at any rate, I would agree that Bridge hands are very improbable events, that is why the game never gets boring. You realize of course that you have made our point with the bridge hand. There is no difference in the probability of a hand of all the same suit and any other specific combination of 13 cards. It is only man's penchant for "patterns" that makes the fomer SEEM more unlikely. And you agree they are improbable events at the end. You leave out the "wildly" qualification, but since a specific bridge hand is LESS probable than genetic mutation, and since genetic mutations happen far more often that bridge hands are dealt, you have tacitly accepted our point..
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