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Rising ocean temperatures, El Nino, hurricanes - 8/20/2009 2:13:45 PM   
Vendaval


Posts: 10297
Joined: 1/15/2005
Status: offline 		Heads up folks, hurricane season is likely to be a whole lot worse this year.


In hot water: World sets ocean temperature record

By SETH BORENSTEIN, AP Science Writer Seth Borenstein, Ap Science Writer – 1 hr 44 mins ago

"Breaking heat records in water is more ominous as a sign of global warming than breaking temperature marks on land, because water takes longer to heat up and does not cool off as easily as land.

"This warm water we're seeing doesn't just disappear next year; it'll be around for a long time," said climate scientist Andrew Weaver of the University of Victoria in British Columbia. It takes five times more energy to warm water than land.

The warmer water "affects weather on the land," Weaver said. "This is another yet really important indicator of the change that's occurring."

Georgia Institute of Technology atmospheric science professor Judith Curry said water is warming in more places than usual, something that has not been seen in more than 50 years.

Add to that an unusual weather pattern this summer where the warmest temperatures seem to be just over oceans, while slightly cooler air is concentrated over land, said Deke Arndt, head of climate monitoring at the climate data center.

The pattern is so unusual that he suggested meteorologists may want to study that pattern to see what's behind it.

The effects of that warm water are already being seen in coral reefs, said C. Mark Eakin, coordinator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's coral reef watch. Long-term excessive heat bleaches colorful coral reefs white and sometimes kills them.

Bleaching has started to crop up in the Florida Keys, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands — much earlier than usual. Typically, bleaching occurs after weeks or months of prolonged high water temperatures. That usually means September or October in the Caribbean, said Eakin. He found bleaching in Guam Wednesday. It's too early to know if the coral will recover or die. Experts are "bracing for another bad year," he said.

The problems caused by the El Nino pattern are likely to get worse, the scientists say.

An El Nino occurs when part of the central Pacific warms up, which in turn changes weather patterns worldwide for many months. El Nino and its cooling flip side, La Nina, happen every few years.

During an El Nino, temperatures on water and land tend to rise in many places, leading to an increase in the overall global average temperature. An El Nino has other effects, too, including dampening Atlantic hurricane formation and increasing rainfall and mudslides in Southern California.

Warm water is a required fuel for hurricanes. What's happening in the oceans "will add extra juice to the hurricanes," Curry said.

Hurricane activity has been quiet for much of the summer, but that may change soon, she said. Hurricane Bill quickly became a major storm and the National Hurricane Center warned that warm waters are along the path of the hurricane for the next few days.

Hurricanes need specific air conditions, so warmer water alone does not necessarily mean more or bigger storms, said James Franklin, chief hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami."


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090820/ap_on_sc/us_sci_warm_oceans

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?reportglobal&year2009&month7

http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/all.html

_____________________________

"Beware, the woods at night, beware the lunar light.
So in this gray haze we'll be meating again, and on that
great day, I will tease you all the same."
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RE: Rising ocean temperatures, El Nino, hurricanes - 8/20/2009 2:29:59 PM   
servantforuse


Posts: 6363
Joined: 3/8/2006
Status: offline 		I hope this means we will have a warmer than usual winter this year in Wisconsin, especially since we have had 2 extemrely cold and snowy winters the last 2 years. Go El Nino...

(in reply to Vendaval)
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RE: Rising ocean temperatures, El Nino, hurricanes - 8/20/2009 2:46:17 PM   
Sanity


Posts: 22039
Joined: 6/14/2006
From: Nampa, Idaho USA
Status: offline
A related article:

Drop in world temperatures fuels global warming debate

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RE: Rising ocean temperatures, El Nino, hurricanes - 8/20/2009 3:04:35 PM   
CallaFirestormBW


Posts: 3651
Joined: 6/29/2008
Status: offline 		Actually, hurricane season often produces weaker and more poorly formed storms during an El Nino, though they tend to be more erratic, because the high water temperatures and cold air aloft rip the tops off of building storms. The hurricane prediction center has already reduced the number of hurricanes in the atlantic, and the number of land-strikes and major hurricanes when we went all the way till the beginning of August without a single named storm forming in the Atlantic Basin or Caribbean.

DC

< Message edited by CallaFirestormBW -- 8/20/2009 3:07:34 PM >

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RE: Rising ocean temperatures, El Nino, hurricanes - 8/20/2009 3:27:27 PM   
Sanity


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From: Nampa, Idaho USA
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Every year for the past several years in a row now the "experts" were surprised because there have been far fewer hurricanes than they predicted.

They just don't have it down to a science yet.


quote:

ORIGINAL: CallaFirestormBW

Actually, hurricane season often produces weaker and more poorly formed storms during an El Nino, though they tend to be more erratic, because the high water temperatures and cold air aloft rip the tops off of building storms. The hurricane prediction center has already reduced the number of hurricanes in the atlantic, and the number of land-strikes and major hurricanes when we went all the way till the beginning of August without a single named storm forming in the Atlantic Basin or Caribbean.

DC



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RE: Rising ocean temperatures, El Nino, hurricanes - 8/20/2009 7:07:17 PM   
TheHeretic


Posts: 19100
Joined: 3/25/2007
From: California, USA
Status: offline 		Hang on a sec, Ven, I feel one of my psychic moments coming on.  We are now going to hear still more about the need for western capitalist societies to crash their economies trying to stop the inevitable, rather than coming up with sensible adaptations to a changing climate.

Posted from well above sea level. 

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RE: Rising ocean temperatures, El Nino, hurricanes - 8/21/2009 12:41:01 AM   
Vendaval


Posts: 10297
Joined: 1/15/2005
Status: offline 		Dame Calla,

Thank you for the additional information. Have you had to evacuate from your area in the past? And how much warning is given to residents in advance?

Vendaval

_____________________________

"Beware, the woods at night, beware the lunar light.
So in this gray haze we'll be meating again, and on that
great day, I will tease you all the same."
"WOLF MOON", OCTOBER RUST, TYPE O NEGATIVE


http://KinkMeet.co.uk

(in reply to CallaFirestormBW)
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RE: Rising ocean temperatures, El Nino, hurricanes - 8/21/2009 6:44:03 AM   
tazzygirl


Posts: 37833
Joined: 10/12/2007
Status: offline 		Evacuations are a strange creature in design. They are designed to protect as many people as possible, taking into consideration that, in their belief, most people's dwellings, or lack of dwellings when speaking of the homeless, would not withsstand the 70+ mph winds. i grew up on the east coast, so evacuations were a way of life. typically, unless it was on a direct hit, or above a category two, we didnt evacuate.

typically, a level one = batten down the hatches, its gonna be a rain event.
category two = bring the animals in, cover the windows, check for anything that can "fly" in that wind speed and secure.
category three = all the above and make plans to leave. flying debris can become a bullet, even through a boarded up window. most likely power will be lost for some time, ect ect ect

believe what they tell you on the weather channel. it can be scary.

as far as notice, we usually knew as soon as the storm formed which way it may turn. as soon as the winds pick up to 50, they typically close the roads. by the day before its about to hit landfall, you should have your plans made and be ready to go. if we werent out 12 hours before, it meant we werent leaving. most places try to give 48 hours notice for evacuation. all that is contigent on the course being set and never changing. but, like we women you never know what a hurricane may do next!

_____________________________

Telling me to take Midol wont help your butthurt.
RIP, my demon-child 5-16-11
Duchess of Dissent 1
Dont judge me because I sin differently than you.
If you want it sugar coated, dont ask me what i think! It would violate TOS.

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RE: Rising ocean temperatures, El Nino, hurricanes - 8/21/2009 6:51:28 AM   
DCWoody


Posts: 1401
Joined: 10/27/2006
Status: offline 		Someone on another forum offered a few bets that there'd be more storms etc because of global warming, offered a few different bets on his predictions, got all but one wrong and cost him a lot of money. Global temperature has been falling since the late 90s, shame, I quite liked the idea of global warming...could have done with a consistent 2C rise

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RE: Rising ocean temperatures, El Nino, hurricanes - 8/21/2009 6:58:43 AM   
Louve00


Posts: 1674
Joined: 2/1/2009
Status: offline 		Technology is improving these days.  This year the weathermen were predicting Hurricane Bill 10 days out and their forecasts were accurate.  Those predictions are for the ones that usually form off the coast of Africa, or far enough south of the gulf of mexico.  You have some that form in the gulf that can form in a moments notice.  (Claudette, this year, an example).  Like it was said, you just don't know what those storms will do.

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RE: Rising ocean temperatures, El Nino, hurricanes - 8/21/2009 8:11:02 AM   
CallaFirestormBW


Posts: 3651
Joined: 6/29/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Vendaval

Dame Calla,

Thank you for the additional information. Have you had to evacuate from your area in the past? And how much warning is given to residents in advance?

Vendaval


We evacuated 2 years ago, for Hurricane Rita, but did not evac for Hurricane Ike (I was on the Ride-Out team for the hospital I work at). Our apartment was secure (100% brick, lower level, with an enclosed courtyard (18 ft wall) that all doors/windows faced out onto). We were also elevated 10 ft above street level, and in an area of the city that was not in a flood plain. We were given a good bit of warning -- most of the folks here track hurricanes from the moment they look like they'll curve under or across Florida (just to make sure they don't re-spawn in the Atlantic, which -has- happened a couple of times), or as soon as something substantial shows up in the Caribbean, which, typically, gives us about 6-8 days +/- notice. Of course, all you can do at that point is plan, and you can't really determine landfall for a hurricane accurately until 24-36 hours out (and even then it can turn), but if you're in that cone, and it's a high 2+ storm, you pull in everything that could possible move, and get your fanny to safer ground. Ike was actually downgraded shortly before landfall, but it was such a HUGE storm, with a -very- proportionally small center and broad eye-wall, that it didn't really matter -- it was devastating over a very wide swath. The storm-surge was worse than the winds or the rain, though, and property was lost/damaged a long way from the coast due to the extent of (relatively) inland flooding. The flooding from the Ship Channel was profound as well, and there was a lot of damage inside the city, proper.

I'm hoping for a break this year. The Gulf Coast has taken a beating, not necessarily with the most powerful storms, but certainly with larger storms, so that even if the eye is due to make landfall over one area, there is still impact, sometimes as much as 100 miles away, and with Ike, for example, that impact can be substantial.

DC

< Message edited by CallaFirestormBW -- 8/21/2009 8:16:32 AM >

_____________________________

***
Said to me recently: "Look, I know you're the "voice of reason"... but dammit, I LIKE being unreasonable!!!!"

"Your mind is more interested in the challenge of becoming than the challenge of doing." Jon Benson, Bodybuilder/Trainer

(in reply to Vendaval)
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RE: Rising ocean temperatures, El Nino, hurricanes - 8/21/2009 12:48:53 PM   
Vendaval


Posts: 10297
Joined: 1/15/2005
Status: offline 		tazzygirl, Louve00 and Dame Calla,

Thank you all for the explanations. The preparations for hurricanes are similar for the fire evacuations we face in California during the long, dry summers and falls.

Stay safe, everybody.

(format edit)

< Message edited by Vendaval -- 8/21/2009 12:50:24 PM >

_____________________________

"Beware, the woods at night, beware the lunar light.
So in this gray haze we'll be meating again, and on that
great day, I will tease you all the same."
"WOLF MOON", OCTOBER RUST, TYPE O NEGATIVE


http://KinkMeet.co.uk

(in reply to CallaFirestormBW)
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RE: Rising ocean temperatures, El Nino, hurricanes - 8/21/2009 6:05:44 PM   
Aneirin


Posts: 6121
Joined: 3/18/2006
From: Tamaris
Status: offline 		Interesting thing I found out the other day when speculating about making blackberry wine, the fermentation process creates CO2. So, with it seems wine being made more and more these days, and in places it was not in history, the production of wine, and beer is contributing to the increased levels of CO2 i.e. the gas the scaremongerers tell us is stuffing up our climate. I wonder how many of them enjoy a good bottle of wine or a few beers.

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RE: Rising ocean temperatures, El Nino, hurricanes - 8/21/2009 6:15:40 PM   
mnottertail


Posts: 60698
Joined: 11/3/2004
Status: offline 		In Minnesota, el Nino means warm and mild winter.........be safe, but fuck all you warm folks, know what I mean?

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RE: Rising ocean temperatures, El Nino, hurricanes - 8/21/2009 9:36:05 PM   
Vendaval


Posts: 10297
Joined: 1/15/2005
Status: offline 		Hey Ron, go hug a tree, you hippie!

_____________________________

"Beware, the woods at night, beware the lunar light.
So in this gray haze we'll be meating again, and on that
great day, I will tease you all the same."
"WOLF MOON", OCTOBER RUST, TYPE O NEGATIVE


http://KinkMeet.co.uk

(in reply to mnottertail)
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RE: Rising ocean temperatures, El Nino, hurricanes - 8/21/2009 9:43:51 PM   
mnottertail


Posts: 60698
Joined: 11/3/2004
Status: offline 		hugged.

_____________________________

Have they not divided the prey; to every man a damsel or two? Judges 5:30


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RE: Rising ocean temperatures, El Nino, hurricanes - 8/23/2009 9:34:31 AM   
tazzygirl


Posts: 37833
Joined: 10/12/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Aneirin

Interesting thing I found out the other day when speculating about making blackberry wine, the fermentation process creates CO2. So, with it seems wine being made more and more these days, and in places it was not in history, the production of wine, and beer is contributing to the increased levels of CO2 i.e. the gas the scaremongerers tell us is stuffing up our climate. I wonder how many of them enjoy a good bottle of wine or a few beers.


that co2 level would merely replace, in my mind, the levels that sanitation and better living conditions took away.

_____________________________

Telling me to take Midol wont help your butthurt.
RIP, my demon-child 5-16-11
Duchess of Dissent 1
Dont judge me because I sin differently than you.
If you want it sugar coated, dont ask me what i think! It would violate TOS.

(in reply to Aneirin)
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RE: Rising ocean temperatures, El Nino, hurricanes - 8/24/2009 10:51:26 AM   
Esinn


Posts: 886
Joined: 6/23/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

Evacuations are a strange creature in design. They are designed to protect as many people as possible, taking into consideration that, in their belief, most people's dwellings, or lack of dwellings when speaking of the homeless, would not withsstand the 70+ mph winds. i grew up on the east coast, so evacuations were a way of life. typically, unless it was on a direct hit, or above a category two, we didnt evacuate.

typically, a level one = batten down the hatches, its gonna be a rain event.
category two = bring the animals in, cover the windows, check for anything that can "fly" in that wind speed and secure.
category three = all the above and make plans to leave. flying debris can become a bullet, even through a boarded up window. most likely power will be lost for some time, ect ect ect

believe what they tell you on the weather channel. it can be scary.

as far as notice, we usually knew as soon as the storm formed which way it may turn. as soon as the winds pick up to 50, they typically close the roads. by the day before its about to hit landfall, you should have your plans made and be ready to go. if we werent out 12 hours before, it meant we werent leaving. most places try to give 48 hours notice for evacuation. all that is contigent on the course being set and never changing. but, like we women you never know what a hurricane may do next!


I was in Florida Eyebor city, not sure how it is spelled when a hurricane hit not so long ago.  I evacuated out into the middle of the streets - then I shit my pants almost died and ran back inside with everyone.  But, it was awesome!!!

The good news despite the despicable designer that designed the universe and hurricanes, natural disasters and other things. . .  Well, science has, or hopes to be able to stop the billions of dollars worth of damage and hundreds of thousands of lives lost since the loving creator remains hidden.  Yes, yes I know it allows this pointless suffering so we can be passionate and learn to love it/her more.  But, like science stopped most plagues... Well, god damnit it is at it again and might one day stop hurricanes.

It is something Bill Gates is working on actually.  More updated links can be found for those inclined but here is one:
http://www.tomshardware.com/news/Bill-Gates-Weather-Hurricane-Patent,8270.html

< Message edited by Esinn -- 8/24/2009 11:05:12 AM >

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RE: Rising ocean temperatures, El Nino, hurricanes - 8/24/2009 10:54:33 AM   
Esinn


Posts: 886
Joined: 6/23/2009
Status: offline 		This got me thinking?  Could Bill Gates be god? He killed apple(no pun intended) for their sins and Microsoft is omnipresent  He is one of the most charitable people in the world. 

Edit:
Never mind he thinks prayer is a waste of time.


< Message edited by Esinn -- 8/24/2009 10:55:20 AM >

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RE: Rising ocean temperatures, El Nino, hurricanes - 8/24/2009 1:22:56 PM   
ThatDamnedPanda


Posts: 6060
Joined: 1/26/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Esinn

This got me thinking?  Could Bill Gates be god? He killed apple(no pun intended) for their sins and Microsoft is omnipresent  He is one of the most charitable people in the world. 

Edit:
Never mind he thinks prayer is a waste of time.



All the more proof - why would god need to pray?


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In the forest of the night
What immortal hand or eye
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