RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak oil

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RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 12:34:54 PM

rightwinghippie

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"Brain and I are arguing from known factual data, and you guys are trying to counter that with speculation and uninformed assumptions. There's just no way to even talk to each other. "

Panda you might go re read what Brain is arguing,

"It doesn’t make sense to keep using oil when there are other forms of clean energy available like solar or wind. Improvements are being made, especially solar in Israel, they are doing great things with it, to get more energy from these sources and they can and will replace oil. It doesn’t make sense environmentally or health wise to keep using oil. It’s dirty and it pollutes.

You might drop Al Gore a note and let him know that Alternative energy is a failure also

(in reply to rightwinghippie)

Post #: 21

RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 12:36:35 PM

ThatDamnedPanda

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quote:

ORIGINAL: rightwinghippie

Except its not oil, that matters, but energy. There are a lot of positive benefits to shifting away from oil, on a rational, market recognizing pace. We will never run out of oil, but we will quit using it for the most part.

By the way, I missed this post earlier. Sorry.

You're right in your main point, I agree. We will never truly run out of oil, that's not the issue. The issue is, at some point on the relatively near future, we will reach a juncture where there isn't enough of it left to support all the ways in which we depend upon it now. I think where we disagree is that you seem to be assuming that by that time, the alternative fuel industry will have gotten up to speed and step in relatively seamlessly to take up the slack.

And if that's what you're saying, you may very well be right. As I see it, the whole thing depends on two variables we can't predict with any degree of accuracy - how fast are we really running out of petroleum, and how fast is the alternative energy industry advancing. If we're running out faster than we think, and/or the alternative fuel industry develops more slowly than we think or hope, then there's going to be an enormous gap between what we need and what we have available. That's why this is important. Because if that's the way it winds up playing out, the world we're going to be living in is going to make "Mad Max" look like a Disney film.

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Post #: 22

RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 12:45:52 PM

ThatDamnedPanda

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quote:

ORIGINAL: rightwinghippie

You might drop Al Gore a note and let him know that Alternative energy is a failure also

I'm sorry, we're posting past each other here.

I want to make clear that I don't think alternative energy is a failure - I'm just saying it's not ready yet. I'm fairly confident that at some point, the lines will probably cross (as you say), and it will become as affordable as petroleum. But until that happens, nobody really knows that for sure, and if we pass peak production before we get that figured out, we're hosed. That's all I'm saying. We can't count on it until we're holding it in our hand, and until that happens, I think we really need to be prudent in our planning and cautious in our actions. Since we can only assume when the lines will cross, to my way of thinking it's far wiser to assume it will be far down the road and if not prepare for a worst-case scenario, at least factor the worst-case heavily into our planning. To assume the best-case and plan according to that is, to me, beyond foolish, because the stakes are far too high.

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Panda, panda, burning bright
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What immortal hand or eye
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Post #: 23

RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 12:48:14 PM

rightwinghippie

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Apology accepted. You are one of the people I truely hope I can have some challenging debates with. You are an out of the box thinker.

Energy use and planning is a very important subject. I would never argue otherwise. I do think we need to use oil now to pave the way for other sources later. I see so many promising ways of creating energy, that I'm not worried. Maybe thats pollyanaish, but I don't think so.

I never said seamless. There will undoubtably be some lurches. And some aspects of our society will change in response. I think that's probably a good thing.

Where there is a huge issue for the future is that the current world economic system is basically based on the Petro Dollar. And with out the heavy demand for oil, and the world Oil market set up the way it is now the World economy has no basis, and the USA specifically is completely fucked.

Thats where the running out of oil matters.

(in reply to ThatDamnedPanda)

Post #: 24

RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 12:55:28 PM

kdsub

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Panda...I never said it would be painless...but I am a realist...just look what happened when the price of fuel went up... The development of alternate energy jumped...and will continue... and produce its own economy boost as the structures for distribution are built... It has happened before and will happen again. People will demand the new sources be developed...we are just having problems breaking the oil companies grip.

There would be a problem if there were no reasonable alternative energy sources...but we all know what they are... what they will cost...and know they can replace oil. It will just more market pressure and the change will come in a relatively short time... just like the railroads... interstates... and automobiles.

Butch

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Post #: 25

RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 1:32:53 PM

JuliaGreenleaf

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There is hope. Nanotechnology. Genetic engineering. Nuclear fission and fusion. Dare I say it, whatever crashed at roswell...

But big stretches of open space with lots of houses where people have to use lots of energy to drive around in individual vehicles are very silly.
Thoughts - genetic engineering allows for growing supercrops.. not nice, but better than running out of food.
Nanotechnology allows for creation of new materials that will supplant petroleum. Also, a space elevator, very useful for getting solar satellites up orbit, though beaming microwaved power through the atmosphere might be a mess.
Methane can be obtained from human waste. Breeder reactors if guarded properly can recycle nuclear 'waste' almost endlessly for energy.
IMHO personal transport should be ultralite, and one/two personned, powered from the mains through battery storage, like laptops - either that, or please PLEASE build FAR more mass transit.

(in reply to Sanity)

Post #: 26

RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 3:11:29 PM

rightwinghippie

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Of course there is my favorite genitic engineering solution.

We can re eingineer peope so we are just 3 feet tall. Then we will have twice as much space as we do now, and need half as much food, ect.

(in reply to JuliaGreenleaf)

Post #: 27

RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 3:21:24 PM

ThatDamnedPanda

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quote:

ORIGINAL: rightwinghippie

Of course there is my favorite genitic engineering solution.

We can re eingineer peope so we are just 3 feet tall. Then we will have twice as much space as we do now, and need half as much food, ect.

I take it you're not a basketball fan, then?

_____________________________

Panda, panda, burning bright
In the forest of the night
What immortal hand or eye
Made you all black and white and roly-poly like that?

(in reply to rightwinghippie)

Post #: 28

RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 3:25:02 PM

rightwinghippie

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Just lower the baskets, and shrink the diameter of the ball, and we will be able to put 4 courts in the space of one...

(in reply to ThatDamnedPanda)

Post #: 29

RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 3:59:27 PM

Sanity

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From: Nampa, Idaho USA
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Speaking of huge new oil fields, George Soros, who bought and paid for Barack Obama as well as the Democratic party, knows where the future lies: OIL!

He's investing heavily in the huge new oil field that was recently found off the coast of Brazil.

So, in other words, what's Obama's top money man got to say about the situation?

That's right...

"DRILL BABY, DRILL!!!"

quote:

Soros hedge fund invests $811m to buy Petrobras stake

London: Billionaire investor George Soros bought an $811 million stake in Petroleo Brasileiro (Petrobras) in the second quarter, making the Brazilian state-controlled oil company his investment fund's largest holding.

As of June 30, the stake in Petrobras, as the Rio de Janeiro-based oil producer is known, made up 22 per cent of the $3.68 billion of stocks and American depositary receipts held by Soros Fund Management, according to a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Petrobras has since slumped 28 per cent.

http://www.gulfnews.com/business/Oil_and_Gas/10237597.html

< Message edited by Sanity -- 8/24/2009 4:00:27 PM >

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RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 4:07:19 PM

servantforuse

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The U S Government / Obama administration, is loaning the government of Brazil 2 billion dollars to drill for oil in that country. Why not do the same for our own country ??

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Post #: 31

RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 4:33:07 PM

MichiganHeadmast

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Bring on the nukes.

(in reply to Brain)

Post #: 32

RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 4:53:00 PM

Sanity

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Probably has more to do with buying Iowa (corn / ethanol country) votes than anything else.

quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

The U S Government / Obama administration, is loaning the government of Brazil 2 billion dollars to drill for oil in that country. Why not do the same for our own country ??

_____________________________

Inside Every Liberal Is A Totalitarian Screaming To Get Out

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Post #: 33

RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 5:16:54 PM

pyroaquatic

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http://www.youtube.com/user/greenpowerscience?blend=1&ob=4#play/uploads/149/hSASTB53ffk

This should be worth ten minutes of your time.

I have one of these. I am serious about alternative energies. In fact my business is all about that.

The greatest of all 'alternative' energies has been around since we were around.

Our bodies.

I do not see the 'running out of oil' the end of the world. Just the beginning of a new one.

^_^

Good luck!

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As your desire is, so is your will.
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Post #: 34

RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 5:45:51 PM

InvisibleBlack

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If you define "peak oil" as "one day we will have used up all the easy to access oil and the price of oil will begin to rise" then yes, I believe in peak oil. If you define "peak oil" as "OMG! There's going to be massive drop in the amount of available oil and Western civilization will COLLAPSE! DOOM! DOOM, I SAY!" I think your understanding of the petroleum industry is sadly lacking.

The fact that no alternative energy technology has been able to successfully compete with fossil fuels is because fossil fuels contain so much more energy per volume, and are so easy to access, that none of them can. As the readily available oil fields that are inexpensive to access dry up (as they are starting to), newer and more difficult oil fields will be exploited (as they are have been). These will be more expensive but not ten times the price to access and, as time goes on, new technologies will be developed to get to them more cheaply.

There are already alternatives to oil, several of them developed by the major oil companies, but none of them compare favorably with oil for cost. My father worked for a major oil company and I recall him telling me in the 1970s that they'd developed a method for converting oil shale into gasoline back then, but it was so expensive that unless gasoline went over $5.00/gallon (in 1970 dollars) it wasn't cost-effective to bring it to market.

What I expect will happen is that as the price of oil rises gradually over time, as it will, alternative fuels will be explored and developed and at some point one or more alternatives will become cost-effective and will begin to take over. There won't ever be a crash.

In all honesty, diesel is more efficient than gasoline and a conversion from gasoline to diesel would be simple since refineries already exist to produce diesel and most major auto manufacturers already have models which can run on diesel fuel. Diesel could be switched to without having to re-tool or build from scratch an entire distribution network. This would reduce the rate at which we're consuming existing oil fields, buying us more time to develop alternatives and allowing the oil companies to retain their profitable refining and distribution networks. Since no one is talking about this, I assume the people in the know are not yet concerned about the supply of oil drastically tapering off anytime soon.

My friends on the commodity trading floors all told me that the wild rise in the price of oil a year or so ago was due to rampant speculation on the back end of the market and had little to do with the actual available supply of oil. I have no idea how accurate their assessment is but if you google things like "oil speculation" and 2007 or 2008, you'll get a ton of links to articles blaming the entire run up in the price of oil on market manipulation and not supply shock. Whether that's disinformation or accurate accusation, I leave to you.

Personally, if you were going to panic about the sudden vanishing of oil - gasoline and energy are the least of your concerns. You can always burn coal or wood to power a plant if you have to to get by until you can fire up a big fission plant. Cars can be made that will run on oil substitutes. What you should panic about is the loss of plastics. Everything these days is plastic. There is almost nothing in your home that doesn't have some plastic in it and there are an endless list of items that cannot be made effectively without the ability to injection mold. The loss of plastics would ruin most people's lives in ways they can't even imagine.

< Message edited by InvisibleBlack -- 8/24/2009 5:47:39 PM >

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RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/24/2009 7:33:22 PM

autoRelease

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quote:

ORIGINAL: ThatDamnedPanda
As I see it, the whole thing depends on two variables we can't predict with any degree of accuracy - how fast are we really running out of petroleum, and how fast is the alternative energy industry advancing.

The third variable is energy conservation. I'm an architecture student and big strides are being made in building science right now. Even more promising is that people are starting to turn away from conventional suburbs and oversized houses.

(in reply to ThatDamnedPanda)

Post #: 36

RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/25/2009 1:32:48 AM

Brain

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Michael Jackson’s Three Children were Genetically Engineered, According to Recent Reports.
Michael Jackson’s three children were genetically engineered, according to recent reports. The King of Pop allegedly planned the conception of Prince Michael

http://controversialcelebrity.com/news/2009/08/24/michael-jackson/michael-jackson%e2%80%99s-three-children-were-genetically-engineered-according-to-recent-reports/

quote:

ORIGINAL: rightwinghippie

Of course there is my favorite genitic engineering solution.

We can re eingineer peope so we are just 3 feet tall. Then we will have twice as much space as we do now, and need half as much food, ect.

(in reply to rightwinghippie)

Post #: 37

RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/25/2009 2:29:35 AM

Politesub53

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quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

The U S Government / Obama administration, is loaning the government of Brazil 2 billion dollars to drill for oil in that country. Why not do the same for our own country ??

Do you not know this is to help American companies win big oil contracts ?

(in reply to servantforuse)

Post #: 38

RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/25/2009 6:30:20 AM

UncleNasty

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I've not read this thread at all. Kinda shitty of me to post without reading it, LOL.

But this popped up in the NYT this morning and I did read it earlier. It seemed it may have some relevance here so I'm including a link.

I'm not versed or knowledgeable in re Peak Oil so I don't proffer any opinions

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/25/opinion/25lynch.html?pagewanted=1&th&emc=th

Uncle Nasty

(in reply to rightwinghippie)

Post #: 39

RE: The End of Suburbia - 52 minute documentary on peak... - 8/25/2009 4:30:53 PM

thornhappy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250
And, people keep forgetting about *Russia.*
There is more oil in Russia than in the entire Middle East and that's just the "known" reserves. And Russia spans 14 differant time zones.

Yet their oil output's declined for 20 years (like our North Slope fields).

(in reply to popeye1250)

Post #: 40

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