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What's eleven states? - 8/29/2009 8:16:45 PM   
Musicmystery


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Status: offline 		Eleven states formed the Confederacy--and not all of them (Texas, Tennesee) were crazy about the idea.

Some voices said just let them go. What would have happened? Would the Union have fallen from internal strife? Would the economy of the South, dependent on Northern industry as a market for its cotton, have had to submit anyway? Would England, France, Spain or Mexico have carved off pieces?

Certainly the necessity of Civil War scarcity brought the first of two unpopular policies--a draft and an income tax. Would we have continued without either? Would the two nations have balanced each other out, each a humbler nation on the world stage?

What's your view, and of course, why.
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RE: What's eleven states? - 8/29/2009 9:35:58 PM   
MasterMgm


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Status: offline 		As a southern who lives in the city which was the capital of the Confederacy, I would have to said the north and south wouldn't have continued without each other.

The main crop doing this time in the south was cotton. The cotton raised here in the south
was mainly exported to Europe and despite original concern of the British about the supply of cotton during the beginning of the war the British managed to produce cotton in Egypt and India which were crown colonies and placed to doubt the continuance of the Southern cotton market. Even if the British still brought the major share of cotton raised here, I believe the issues of slavery would had come into play. I believe the British government, who at this time had done away with slavery, would have placed more scrutiny than they had previously.  The northern meat companies, which owned many large plantations, depended on the south for beef and pork. The southern states were the agriculture area producing rice, tobacco, sugar, and hemp.

The south depend on the north for automobile, farm equipment and most important thing was the central strong government.

So IMHO, I would have to said that the south and north balance each other out.

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RE: What's eleven states? - 8/29/2009 10:35:21 PM   
Arpig


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Status: offline 		An interesting question. I suspect they could theoretically have coexisted for quite a long time actually, but given the industrial predominance of the North, I think that in the end the South would have been turned into an effective colony. And they would have struggled mightily over the empty lands to the west, quite possibly coming to blows over the division of the territories.I really can't see the North letting any of the territories go without a fight.

If they had managed to coexist, then to be 100% honest I think that the entire world would be vastly different. I suspect the Entente powers would still have won the First World War (Germany was fast approaching exhaustion by the time the US declared war), but the Second World War would have ended very differently. In the first instance, it is questionable that the UK could have held out long enough for Hitler to attack the USSR without the aid provided by the US,and if there were 2 countries there instead of one, that aid would not have been so massive, indeed the war could have spread to North America in a real way.  It is questionable if the USSR could have held out without the massive aid provided by a unitary US as well. If it did manage not to fall in the first 2 or 3 years, then it would have inevitably defeated Germany in the end.Thus we would have had either a Nazi dominated Europe or a Soviet dominated one. In Asia, it is doubtful if a divided America could have (or even would have had to be attacked) defeated Japan, so Asia would have a vastly different history as well. The inherent weakening of America would have altered almost any aspect of history you care to consider.

Canada and Mexico would have been far more important players in North American history,that's for certain,but what exactly that might entail is any body's guess.


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RE: What's eleven states? - 8/29/2009 10:35:40 PM   
hlen5


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quote:

ORIGINAL: MasterMgm

.........The south depend on the north for automobile, farm equipment and most important thing was the central strong government...........


Did you mean general manufacturing, here?? 

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RE: What's eleven states? - 8/30/2009 8:07:14 AM   
Musicmystery


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quote:

Canada and Mexico would have been far more important players in North American history,that's for certain,but what exactly that might entail is any body's guess.


I was thinking this too--and with that, more influence from England and Spain.

The U.S. is rich in resources. Nobody was ever going to ignore that.

That's in large part why Germany was interested in Africa--the resources.

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RE: What's eleven states? - 8/30/2009 10:47:57 AM   
kdsub


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Status: offline 		I think the North realized they could not exist without the South and there would never have been a possibility of allowing their independent existence. If the South had won I believe they would not have settled for independence but simply would have remained part of the Untied States but with a mandated change of the constitution and leadership. They too I believe realized they could not exist with an adversarial North.

Butch



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RE: What's eleven states? - 8/30/2009 11:15:15 AM   
Arpig


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quote:

If the South had won
There was never the slightest chance of that. The South outfought and out generaled the North pretty much the whole way through but still were crushed. If it weren't for the generalship and fighting spirit of the Southern armies (in other words if they had been the equals of the North rather than the superior)the war would have lasted only 2 years or so. The North had the manpower to win a war of artition, and it had the industrial muscle to produce the requirements of a truly mass army,neither of which the South could match. They were doomed from the start and the fact that it took 5 years to defeat them is a tribute to the skilled (and often sheer brilliant) leadership of the South (Lee, & Jackson in particular come to mind....Jackson's Shenandoah campaign is still studied today  as a classic example of how to use manoeuvre to defeat a numerically superior foe).


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RE: What's eleven states? - 8/30/2009 11:23:48 AM   
kdsub


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Status: offline 		I don't know... I think once Grant was in charge they were on an even field in leadership...But of course you are correct... never a chance the North would let the South secede.

My point is if they had won…which I think is the OP’s direction…by the third year of the war the leaders of the South understood they could not exist long with a free powerful industrialized North. Their only option even with victory was to stay in the Union but on their terms.

Butch


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RE: What's eleven states? - 8/30/2009 11:56:08 AM   
Arpig


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Status: offline 		Nah Grant wasn't really much of a general, he relied far to heavily on frontal assault. He knew he could do it because he could afford the losses while his opponent couldn't.  You won't find Grant in any serious study of strategy or generalship, simply because he wasn't innovative, original or particularly adept...what he was was utterly indifferent to casualties...he could waste entire regiments because he always had more ready to take their place....and that's exactly what he did. In the end he just ground his opponents down. The last time Grant was taken seriously as a strategist/tactician was WWI....and we all know how that worked out.


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RE: What's eleven states? - 8/30/2009 11:56:27 AM   
Musicmystery


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Status: offline 		Hi Butch,

Perhaps a clarification here. Arpig is right--the South was outnumbered 2 to 1. The North had the majority of wealth. The North had industry--especially manufacturing with interchangeable parts. Northern textile mills also set prices for Southern cotton (it's all well to say "We'll just ship to England," but that's a lot more expensive than shipping to New England). The North had railroads. The North had a system of banking that allowed for financing whatever, including a war. The North had most of the vessels (and shipbuilding). The South had far superior generals (at least at first, as they lost some), but never stood a chance structurally. It was a defiant stance built more on pride than substance.

I don't mean what if the South had won. I mean what if (as some proposed) we just said, "Fine, go."

Regional differences were far more important than political parties. The South depended on the North economically. The West would have gone primarily to the Union (far stronger forces, and they already had important states like California). A lot of our current political divides wouldn't exist.

We've never literally conquered South America--but we've largely controlled it economically. Would the North simply have done so to a dependent South? Would slavery have limped on as a "human rights" issue, one hurting trade with other nations? Or would the Confederacy implode due to economic pressures?

That's what I mean. Also--the incredible cost of that war, in money, resources, and people (2% of the population killed--that's like 6 million people today, including all the talent those people had)--would still be on the U.S., North and South. Lots of things would have been different. On the other hand, the ability to just secede would have severely weakened the U.S., North and South.

Thoughts?

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RE: What's eleven states? - 8/30/2009 11:59:41 AM   
mnottertail


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Status: offline 		steel mills don't forget that.
the south had to use brass frames in their firearms (pistol frames, mortars, cannon and so on) to conserve steel. Well, even with black powder, you lob a few thru that brass, it is going to stretch and garble up.

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RE: What's eleven states? - 8/30/2009 12:00:08 PM   
Musicmystery


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quote:

Grant wasn't really much of a general, he relied far to heavily on frontal assault. He knew he could do it because he could afford the losses while his opponent couldn't.


Exactly. Grant fought a war of attrition. Even at the time, people called it essentially murder. The North literally lost more men than the South had total. But the North had a lot more men.

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RE: What's eleven states? - 8/30/2009 12:41:34 PM   
kdsub


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Status: offline 		Yes I misunderstood....I think even if the North said goodbye it would have been a short lived separation. There was just too much of an advantage to being one country. I think there would have been too great a lure to slaves to flee north because eventually the North would have freed slaves on their own. Manpower is what it was all about anyway...slavery in the world was on the decline.

Butch

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RE: What's eleven states? - 8/30/2009 1:00:12 PM   
rightwinghippie


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Status: offline 		I think that if the USA were split durring the Civil War, the Monroe Doctrine would no longer have been able to be enforced. There would have been no hegemony over the Western Hemisphere durring the 20th century

Which would have led to a lot more interferences in North and South America by Europe and Japan. The Americas would look a lot more like Africa. Small hostile states backed up and dominated by foriegn controllers, and oriented to trade back with the mother country, not each other. 7 or 8 languages in South America, instead of 2/3. There would be less of a "latin" culture. A lot more wars. Lower standard of living.

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RE: What's eleven states? - 8/30/2009 1:14:56 PM   
Aylee


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

Eleven states formed the Confederacy--and not all of them (Texas, Tennesee) were crazy about the idea.

Some voices said just let them go. What would have happened? Would the Union have fallen from internal strife? Would the economy of the South, dependent on Northern industry as a market for its cotton, have had to submit anyway? Would England, France, Spain or Mexico have carved off pieces?

Certainly the necessity of Civil War scarcity brought the first of two unpopular policies--a draft and an income tax. Would we have continued without either? Would the two nations have balanced each other out, each a humbler nation on the world stage?

What's your view, and of course, why.


I do not think that I can have a personal view.  I read a lot of alternative history and that is one of the most frequent "topics." 

Harry Turtledove has done an entire series on it. 

If this is something that you are interested in, I can get you a list of authors and books.

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RE: What's eleven states? - 8/30/2009 1:34:44 PM   
Musicmystery


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quote:

if the USA were split durring the Civil War, the Monroe Doctrine would no longer have been able to be enforced.


We had already acquired California (along with what would become Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Nevada, and parts of others)--statehood was one of the disagreements, as it entered a Free state--and we already had joint control over the Oregon Territory with England (with a sunset clause for England). We already stretched coast to coast.

The rest, I think, is probable--maybe not the multiple languages, as England, Spain, and a touch of France were all that was left of colonial powers in the Northern Hemisphere. Even France had essentially washed its hands of it when Napoleon gave it up in the Louisiana Purchase. And Africa is a very large place, far larger than the continental U.S.

The rise of Germany, Japan, and the U.S.S.R. are another matter--and possibility--of course.



< Message edited by Musicmystery -- 8/30/2009 1:37:20 PM >

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RE: What's eleven states? - 8/30/2009 1:56:26 PM   
rightwinghippie


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Status: offline 		The Monroe Doctrine did not apply to the Continental US MM, It applied to the Entire Hemisphere. France invaded Mexico durring the Civil War. The Belgians, Dutch, Germans, and Italians all went on horrible colonial sprees into Africa after the Civil war, and if they could have into latin America, they just might have. For quite a long time Spainards used to dream about retaking Central America. I would also see a stronger Russian pressence and Japanese /Russian competition in the NW. At the End of the Civil War the Russian Empire had a massve holding in the new world, would a divided US be able to have buy it? Russian Politicians openly pledge to get Alaska back .

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RE: What's eleven states? - 8/30/2009 2:08:48 PM   
Arpig


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Status: offline 		The idea of the Russians in Alaska brought this idea up in my mind....I suspect there may well have been an arctic war between Britain and Russia in the Yukon. Possibly during the Crimean war. Interesting possibilities in that.


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RE: What's eleven states? - 8/30/2009 2:15:19 PM   
rightwinghippie


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Status: offline 		well in actuall events, neither group moved enough troops into Ak/Yukon to fight a war, but they easily could have.

If gold had been struck in the Klondike while Russia was in Ak, it would have been very different.

AS it was the Rusians ignored most of Alaska, and focused on the South. They never noticed all the gold just laying on the beach in Nome. They layed claim to places with huge gold fields, but never really looked at them. The "what ifs" of history are fascinating.

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RE: What's eleven states? - 8/30/2009 2:58:46 PM   
Leiren


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Status: offline 		Sorry. I'm impressed with the wealth of knowledge displayed on this thread. However, I can't get past a very little known quote by Abraham Lincoln:

"My paramount object in this struggle is to save the Union, and is not either to save or to destroy slavery. If I could save the Union without freeing any slave I would do it."

For me, the so called purported ideological premise behind the U.S. Civil War falls apart on that one quote by Lincoln. The Civil War was always about an economic struggle between the north and south. Too many people still seem to want to equate it with a holier than thou Lincoln who was fighting to abolish slavery. And no. I'm not saying that any poster on this thread has tried to use that overused excuse for the Civil War.

H.L. Mencken was later quoted as saying: "The only thing wrong with Abraham Lincoln's Gettysburg Address was that it was the South, not the North, that was fighting for a government
of the people, by the people and for the people."

I guess what I'm saying is that the logistics regarding how the war was fought is much less important than the real reasons behind it. And even according to Lincoln, freeing the slaves was the last thing he cared about.





< Message edited by Leiren -- 8/30/2009 3:01:30 PM >

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