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RE: BBC: What happened to global warming? - 10/11/2009 3:29:04 AM   
Politesub53


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Thadius

Ever tried putting some ice in a styrofoam cup then filling it to the rim with water? Even with the ice being above the rim, when it melts it doesn't run over the sides of the cup....



Nice analogy but it doesnt quite work the same way, since the earth isnt inside a container. If you imagine both land and ice inside the cup, the ice could melt and cover the land, yet the overall displacement remains the same. Its easy enough to find data showing ocean levels have risen.

FDD

Galileo developed a thermometer around 1600 and Farenheight developed his around 1700. There have been forms of unstruments to measure temperature since the 11th centuary.

The UK met Office was formed in the 1850s and accurate records kept since then. I would suggest that since both road and air travel started after that date, the Met Office records hold a decent indication of what has taken place.

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RE: BBC: What happened to global warming? - 10/11/2009 3:48:03 AM   
Realwanderer


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My poll about the BBC is gone. I wonder who I pissed off. Interesting result....

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RE: BBC: What happened to global warming? - 10/11/2009 4:24:03 AM   
thishereboi


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RE: BBC: What happened to global warming? - 10/11/2009 5:55:13 AM   
DomKen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: FatDomDaddy

quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

1998 to 2008 was the hottest decade on record.


Record of how long???

Hotter than 1756 BC? 201 BC? 872AD? 1312? 1667? 1906?

How long have there records been kept?? How long have they had ACCURATE records???

Direct temperature measurements go back in some locations more than 200 years. However we have very accurate climatological data from dendrochronology and ice cores going back at least 10,000 years and if ice cores alone are used closer to 100,000 years.

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RE: BBC: What happened to global warming? - 10/11/2009 6:15:32 AM   
DomKen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Thadius

Are these sources more reliable then?

University of Alaska Fairbanks

or

Princeton

I am fine with you attacking the authors (even though you didn't actually debunk the paper I cited), so I figured I would provide some more papers, with data.... perhaps we can try to discuss data and facts and not who has skeletons in their closets....

I am not a climatologist and neither are you, and neither were the authors of the paper you claimed was "interesting," I am a trained mathematician and could spend hours going over their data and then post hundreds of k of text showing why and how they misused or misrepresented data but that would be tedious and no one would actually read it. Instead I let the fact that experts in the field in question rejected the work as invalid make the point that the data wasn't being presented accurately.

Now for these next two, Dr Akasofu's paper is an interesting claim but he presents no new data and his interpretation of the data has been contested by others in the field.

The Lam paper is an interesting, to a mathematician, exercise but ultimately when he gets around to the point of the the exercise he makes a jump that is unfounded based on what he presents, see the black body radiation stuff, where he simply throws out important smaller variables and then makes no allowances further on that his calculations are low because he is leaving out the other absorption bands.

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RE: BBC: What happened to global warming? - 10/11/2009 6:42:44 AM   
Thadius


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


quote:

ORIGINAL: Thadius

Are these sources more reliable then?

University of Alaska Fairbanks

or

Princeton

I am fine with you attacking the authors (even though you didn't actually debunk the paper I cited), so I figured I would provide some more papers, with data.... perhaps we can try to discuss data and facts and not who has skeletons in their closets....

I am not a climatologist and neither are you, and neither were the authors of the paper you claimed was "interesting," I am a trained mathematician and could spend hours going over their data and then post hundreds of k of text showing why and how they misused or misrepresented data but that would be tedious and no one would actually read it. Instead I let the fact that experts in the field in question rejected the work as invalid make the point that the data wasn't being presented accurately.

Now for these next two, Dr Akasofu's paper is an interesting claim but he presents no new data and his interpretation of the data has been contested by others in the field.

The Lam paper is an interesting, to a mathematician, exercise but ultimately when he gets around to the point of the the exercise he makes a jump that is unfounded based on what he presents, see the black body radiation stuff, where he simply throws out important smaller variables and then makes no allowances further on that his calculations are low because he is leaving out the other absorption bands.


Indeed, the point I was trying to make with both of the additional sources I provided, is that there are many in the field on both sides of the debate. I don't believe either side has it figured out, at least not with our (the world) current technology and understanding of the climate. For example, if one were to look at the models used by the UN for the paper that pro-warming people point to; we should have seen at least a 2 degree C swing upward in temps based on current CO2 emmissions and the guestimated Gigatons in the atmosphere. Granted, these last 2 years could just be anomalies, and we may see those temps catch up in the next couple of years as things return to normal functions.

I still think this is a very interesting subject, and look forward to reading opposing points of view; as that is the only way I can learn more about it.

Have a great Sunday,
Thadius

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RE: BBC: What happened to global warming? - 10/11/2009 8:03:50 AM   
MarsBonfire


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Maybe it's just me... but do these arguments with Climate Change deniers (actually, Global Warming... Bush and the GOP demended the "softer" name) remind you of a famous scene from an iconic US comic book character's origins?

Jor-El: You cannot deny these facts!

Krypton Elder: Be warned, Jor-El, the council has already wasted enough time on this wild theory of yours...

Jor-El: And I'm telling you that we must evacuate this planet immediately! Krypton will explode in a matter of months!

Krypton Council Member: It's not your data that we have issue with, it's your conclusions we find unsupportable... I say Krypton is just shifting it's orbit...

Jor-El: This is insanity! It's suicide! No, wait, it's worse than that! It's genocide!

So, I wonder how that worked out for the "powers that be" on ol' Krypton?

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RE: BBC: What happened to global warming? - 10/11/2009 8:11:40 AM   
DomKen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Thadius
Indeed, the point I was trying to make with both of the additional sources I provided, is that there are many in the field on both sides of the debate. I don't believe either side has it figured out, at least not with our (the world) current technology and understanding of the climate. For example, if one were to look at the models used by the UN for the paper that pro-warming people point to; we should have seen at least a 2 degree C swing upward in temps based on current CO2 emmissions and the guestimated Gigatons in the atmosphere. Granted, these last 2 years could just be anomalies, and we may see those temps catch up in the next couple of years as things return to normal functions.

I still think this is a very interesting subject, and look forward to reading opposing points of view; as that is the only way I can learn more about it.

Have a great Sunday,
Thadius

The problem is if the main stream opinion in climatology is right, and I've yet to see any data presented that disproves the basic tenets of that position, global warming isn't an issue that can be studied at our leisure. We need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions now.

Even if the contrary opinion is right reducin g those emissions will result in new technologies and energy sources and if we as a nation are in front of instead of behind teh crest of that wave we would have entire new industries developed which would be a boon to our economy no matter what.

Rejecting the issue and doing nothing is a lose lose proposition.

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RE: BBC: What happened to global warming? - 10/11/2009 8:21:41 AM   
Sanity


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Other than all the climate models being consistently wrong, and the news contained in this latest BBC article, etc?

quote:



<snip>

I've yet to see any data presented that disproves the basic tenets of that position,...

<snip>


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Profile   Post #: 69
RE: BBC: What happened to global warming? - 10/11/2009 8:54:10 AM   
DomKen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sanity


Other than all the climate models being consistently wrong, and the news contained in this latest BBC article, etc?

quote:



<snip>

I've yet to see any data presented that disproves the basic tenets of that position,...

<snip>


One more time,

1) Increasing the percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere allows that air to retain more heat.
2) CO2 levels have increased by 130 ppm since 1750
3) No other source for that increase exists but human activity.

Those are facts not in any dispute by anyone rational.

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RE: BBC: What happened to global warming? - 10/11/2009 9:12:41 AM   
Sanity


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You seem to be arguing that we would be disastrously entering into another ice age and facing massive crop failures along with other catastrophes were it not for the miracle of greenhouse gases saving us.






< Message edited by Sanity -- 10/11/2009 9:13:15 AM >


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Profile   Post #: 71
RE: BBC: What happened to global warming? - 10/11/2009 9:22:52 AM   
Thadius


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sanity


Other than all the climate models being consistently wrong, and the news contained in this latest BBC article, etc?

quote:



<snip>

I've yet to see any data presented that disproves the basic tenets of that position,...

<snip>


One more time,

1) Increasing the percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere allows that air to retain more heat.
2) CO2 levels have increased by 130 ppm since 1750
3) No other source for that increase exists but human activity.

Those are facts not in any dispute by anyone rational.


Your number 3 is not correct...

From the irrational USGS:

quote:

(emphasis mine)
Large, explosive volcanic eruptions inject water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), hydrogen chloride (HCl), hydrogen fluoride (HF) and ash (pulverized rock and pumice) into the stratosphere to heights of 10-20 miles above the Earth's surface. The most significant impacts from these injections come from the conversion of sulfur dioxide to sulfuric acid (H2SO4), which condenses rapidly in the stratosphere to form fine sulfate aerosols. The aerosols increase the reflection of radiation from the Sun back into space and thus cool the Earth's lower atmosphere or troposphere; however, they also absorb heat radiated up from the Earth, thereby warming the stratosphere. Several eruptions during the past century have caused a decline in the average temperature at the Earth's surface of up to half a degree (Fahrenheit scale) for periods of one to three years. The sulfate aerosols also promote complex chemical reactions on their surfaces that alter chlorine and nitrogen chemical species in the stratosphere. This effect, together with increased stratospheric chlorine levels from chlorofluorocarbon pollution, generates chlorine monoxide (ClO), which destroys ozone (O3). As the aerosols grow and coagulate, they settle down into the upper troposphere where they serve as nuclei for cirrus clouds and further modify the Earth's radiation balance. Most of the hydrogen chloride (HCl) and hydrogen fluoride (HF) are dissolved in water droplets in the eruption cloud and quickly fall to the ground as acid rain. The injected ash also falls rapidly from the stratosphere; most of it is removed within several days to a few weeks. Finally, explosive volcanic eruptions release the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide and thus provide a deep source of carbon for biogeochemical cycles.


But to be more to the point, water vapor and methane seem to be better places to focus our efforts for controlling "greenhouse gases"; they are far more effective at trapping heat. Anyways, there are plenty of natural sources for the increase in CO2 in the atmosphere.

[sarcasm] We could always turn the Middle-East and part of Asia into a glass factory with our nukes, this could potentially cut the world's population by at least 1/3, thereby cutting down on the human sources of CO2 and pollutants... Just sayin [/sarcasm]

Declaring absolutes on anything in this debate, is like declaring an absolute answer to how and when the Universe was formed. As soon as I see some sort of modeling that is even close to being accurate at a month, year, or 5 years out, I will start to take the projections a bit more seriously. Until then, it seems more like palm reading. If the modeling cannot accurately reflect reality, how can it be relied on as proof (I am refering to the AGW modeling used by the UN).

I am all for moving towards cleaner and more sustainable energy sources, for both the health (of mankind and the planet) and financial benefits that should be reaped by advances in technology.

I wish you well,
Thadius

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RE: BBC: What happened to global warming? - 10/11/2009 9:45:56 AM   
Sanity


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Thing is, the speed with which the alarmists are determined to change over to the "greener" technologies will cause average Americans a lot of hardship. Al Gore will make a bundle, and a lot of the presidents (and other politicians) closest and richest friends will stand to handsomely benefit.

But the poor especially will suffer greatly.


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Profile   Post #: 73
RE: BBC: What happened to global warming? - 10/11/2009 10:04:02 AM   
kdsub


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I agree with you here...I believe it must be a global agreement adhered to by all...even developing nations. The lack of this commitment worldwide is the true reason Bush and Obama would not agree...not that they believe global warming is not a concern.

The only way we will ever reduce our emissions is if it is an enforceable world agreement. The time is past where the US can compete with nations with less stringent regulations.

Butch


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RE: BBC: What happened to global warming? - 10/11/2009 11:18:41 AM   
DomKen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Thadius


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


quote:

ORIGINAL: Sanity


Other than all the climate models being consistently wrong, and the news contained in this latest BBC article, etc?

quote:



<snip>

I've yet to see any data presented that disproves the basic tenets of that position,...

<snip>


One more time,

1) Increasing the percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere allows that air to retain more heat.
2) CO2 levels have increased by 130 ppm since 1750
3) No other source for that increase exists but human activity.

Those are facts not in any dispute by anyone rational.


Your number 3 is not correct...

From the irrational USGS:

quote:

(emphasis mine)
Large, explosive volcanic eruptions inject water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), hydrogen chloride (HCl), hydrogen fluoride (HF) and ash (pulverized rock and pumice) into the stratosphere to heights of 10-20 miles above the Earth's surface. The most significant impacts from these injections come from the conversion of sulfur dioxide to sulfuric acid (H2SO4), which condenses rapidly in the stratosphere to form fine sulfate aerosols. The aerosols increase the reflection of radiation from the Sun back into space and thus cool the Earth's lower atmosphere or troposphere; however, they also absorb heat radiated up from the Earth, thereby warming the stratosphere. Several eruptions during the past century have caused a decline in the average temperature at the Earth's surface of up to half a degree (Fahrenheit scale) for periods of one to three years. The sulfate aerosols also promote complex chemical reactions on their surfaces that alter chlorine and nitrogen chemical species in the stratosphere. This effect, together with increased stratospheric chlorine levels from chlorofluorocarbon pollution, generates chlorine monoxide (ClO), which destroys ozone (O3). As the aerosols grow and coagulate, they settle down into the upper troposphere where they serve as nuclei for cirrus clouds and further modify the Earth's radiation balance. Most of the hydrogen chloride (HCl) and hydrogen fluoride (HF) are dissolved in water droplets in the eruption cloud and quickly fall to the ground as acid rain. The injected ash also falls rapidly from the stratosphere; most of it is removed within several days to a few weeks. Finally, explosive volcanic eruptions release the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide and thus provide a deep source of carbon for biogeochemical cycles.


You're full of it. The number and scale of volcanic eruptions onEarth the last 250 years are well known and no one but Rush has ever claimed that they could explain the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Why you felt the need to underline a section on fine particle aerosols is a mystery.

As to your ridiculous demand to see accurate climate modeling before agreeing that action should take place, climate modeling is the very definition of the butterfly effect. We can make general predictions of long term trends and we can make short term weather predictions with fair accuract because on one scale the small variables we simply can't account for do not have time to cause major differences and in the long term get swallowed up by the larger variables but for accurate weather prediction 5 moths or a year out those small variables have strong enough effects that we cannot make those accurate predictions with knowing and accounting for all of them and that is simply impossible.

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RE: BBC: What happened to global warming? - 10/11/2009 11:56:47 AM   
Moonhead


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quote:

ORIGINAL: MarsBonfire

Maybe it's just me... but do these arguments with Climate Change deniers (actually, Global Warming... Bush and the GOP demended the "softer" name) remind you of a famous scene from an iconic US comic book character's origins?

Jor-El: You cannot deny these facts!

Krypton Elder: Be warned, Jor-El, the council has already wasted enough time on this wild theory of yours...

Jor-El: And I'm telling you that we must evacuate this planet immediately! Krypton will explode in a matter of months!

Krypton Council Member: It's not your data that we have issue with, it's your conclusions we find unsupportable... I say Krypton is just shifting it's orbit...

Jor-El: This is insanity! It's suicide! No, wait, it's worse than that! It's genocide!

So, I wonder how that worked out for the "powers that be" on ol' Krypton?




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Profile   Post #: 76
RE: BBC: What happened to global warming? - 10/11/2009 11:57:47 AM   
Thadius


Posts: 5091
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quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


You're full of it. The number and scale of volcanic eruptions onEarth the last 250 years are well known and no one but Rush has ever claimed that they could explain the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Why you felt the need to underline a section on fine particle aerosols is a mystery.

As to your ridiculous demand to see accurate climate modeling before agreeing that action should take place, climate modeling is the very definition of the butterfly effect. We can make general predictions of long term trends and we can make short term weather predictions with fair accuract because on one scale the small variables we simply can't account for do not have time to cause major differences and in the long term get swallowed up by the larger variables but for accurate weather prediction 5 moths or a year out those small variables have strong enough effects that we cannot make those accurate predictions with knowing and accounting for all of them and that is simply impossible.


Just Rush? Interesting.

Anthropogenic Warming of Earth's Climate System

Or

quote:

Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model
The continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide due to anthropogenic emissions is predicted to lead to significant changes in climate.



Also, you missed the part where I have stated that there are other natural causes of CO2 levels growing, one of which is the climate itself. I never demanded to see accurate models before action was taken. I simply stated that until the modeling can and does accurately reflect what is going on, I will give it as much belief as I do a palm reader's forecast abilities. I further stated that I am all FOR moving towards cleaner and renewable sources of energy. However, those statements were probably missed for a good reason....

Hell even the IPCC estimates give volcanic forcing a range of 1.5-4.5 degrees C; due to equilibrium warming for CO2 doubling...

Edited to add:
As for why I highlighted that particular part in my last post was to show that there are far more reasons for the climate changes than just CO2. Volcanic activity and the aerosols created have an insulating effect, or in other words wind up radiating the heat captured back down to us.

It does seem though that you have made your mind up that, we as a species are responsible for the current climate changes and those in the future. Perhaps, I am reading what you are writing the wrong way?

< Message edited by Thadius -- 10/11/2009 12:03:10 PM >


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RE: BBC: What happened to global warming? - 10/11/2009 12:04:26 PM   
Moonhead


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Isn't there a lot more sulphur dioxide than carbon dioxide in volcanic eruptions, though?

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RE: BBC: What happened to global warming? - 10/11/2009 12:09:59 PM   
Thadius


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Moonhead

Isn't there a lot more sulphur dioxide than carbon dioxide in volcanic eruptions, though?

From what I have been reading, that would be accurate. However, the amount of CO2 is not trivial. One must also include underwater volcanic activity into the mix. I gather that alot of this cabon dioxide is absorbs by the oceans and plantlife, however the amount that is absorbed varies based on temps and saturation points.

I am just a layman doing research into a topic that interests me. I am just tired of folks on both sides of this argument trying to spin what little data we (humans) actually understand into absolute truths that cover the entire climate system; and yes there are foks on both sides that spin the numbers to show what they want it to show. Somewhere in the middle the truth will be found, eventually.

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Profile   Post #: 79
RE: BBC: What happened to global warming? - 10/11/2009 12:13:25 PM   
Moonhead


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No question. My understanding was that the sulphur dioxide (which has a cooling effect) has a lot more impact than the carbon dioxide. As you say, the stuff is being spun, and emphasising that CO2 comes out of volcanoes while ignoring the other stuff they spit out has always struck me as part of the spin.

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(in reply to Thadius)
Profile   Post #: 80
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