Study Shows Legalizing Undocumented Immigrants Would Produce $1.5 Trillion Benefit (Full Version)

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Brain -> Study Shows Legalizing Undocumented Immigrants Would Produce $1.5 Trillion Benefit (1/11/2010 8:46:12 PM)


I think this is excellent news and it is appropriate for the White House to get a move on and proceed with its immigration legislation. I hope the Obama administration has the courage to make this an election issue so the American people can vote for or against this during an election campaign. The worst thing would be for Obama to implement immigration reform without it being debated during an election, because many people will be disgruntled and believe they have been betrayed and lied to by their political leaders.


Study Shows Legalizing Undocumented Immigrants Would Produce $1.5 Trillion Benefit - Wonk Room

A new study by University of California at Los Angeles professor Raúl Hinojosa-Ojeda suggests that comprehensive immigration reform, which includes an earned path to legalization for undocumented immigrants, could generate at least $1.5 trillion in added U.S. gross domestic product over 10 years.

http://wonkroom.thinkprogress.org/2010/01/07/legalization-immigration/



MzMia -> RE: Study Shows Legalizing Undocumented Immigrants Would Produce $1.5 Trillion Benefit (1/11/2010 8:55:32 PM)

I am curious, should we legalize all undocumented immigrants REGARDLESS of
where they came from, or just certain undocumented immigrants from certain countries?

Would you have to prove you have a job before becoming legalized or would we
also be legalizing thousands of unemployed immigrants to join our already burgeoning
numbers of the unemployed?



DarkSteven -> RE: Study Shows Legalizing Undocumented Immigrants Would Produce $1.5 Trillion Benefit (1/11/2010 9:00:37 PM)

"Hinojosa predicts that if comprehensive immigration reform passes in 2010, legalized unauthorized workers would be granted full labor rights, which would in turn boost worker productivity, produce $4.5 to $5.4 billion in new net tax revenue, and generate enough consumer spending to support 750,000 to 900,000 jobs."

Huh?  Why would being legal make them more productive? 

Where is the extra net tax revenue coming from?  In the book Coyotes by Ted Conover the author recounts how illegals simply made up nine letter SSNs, so that their employers actually DID pay taxes into the system.  The article assumes that currently, they pay no taxes and will pay full taxes once legalized, which I dispute.

Why would they spend more in the US if legalized?  They will still send money back to Mexico and spend minimally here to maximize money sent back home.

----------------------------

"This number doesn’t take into account the additional $206 to $230 billion it would cost just to physically deport undocumented immigrants over a five-year period."

Dividing the $200B by the estimated 1.7 million illegals and five years shows that this article clearly assumed that each and every illegal would be deported, and that the physical deportation costs over $20K apiece.  What the hell did the author do, assume that we buy each illegal a brand new car to drive to the border and take with them?

Brain, do me a favor and run a reasonableness check on articles you post.  Just because it's on the Internet doesn't mean it has any pretensions to legitimacy.



popeye1250 -> RE: Study Shows Legalizing Undocumented Immigrants Would Produce $1.5 Trillion Benefit (1/11/2010 9:16:13 PM)

Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa, Haaaaaa, Haaaaaah!



willbeurdaddy -> RE: Study Shows Legalizing Undocumented Immigrants Would Produce $1.5 Trillion Benefit (1/11/2010 9:41:25 PM)

So, let me get this straight. We have 17% or so real unemployment, not counting illegals, and we are facing what most economists consider a jobless recovery. We add, say 15 million illegals to the legitimate labor market, increasing the labor pool by 10%. There are two possiblities about those illegals...they were working under the table because they were a cheap source of labor, in which case their addition to the labor pool doesnt increase GDP by a penny, or they were unemployed, in which case they initially increase the unemployment rate.

Those that were employed move up to minimum wage, without increasing GDP...what do employers do in response? They either cut employment or reduce profits, which reduces the wealth of the country by exactly the same amount as the increase in wages. Some of those profits would not have been "spent"d but it would have been investe, while the increase in wages probably does get spent. So you have some minor increase in consumption at the expense of investment. It is totally clear from history that investment has a multiplier effect that increases GDP far more than spending the same amount.

Those that were unemployed and are actually employable create more competition in the labor pool, reducing any wages that were above minimum wage, and havent added a single job (ie no increase in GDP) until the economy reaches full employment in pre-legalization terms.

And the net effect on the economy is an increase in GDP????

Its this professor's kind of asinine modeling that leads Dems to think that you can grow an economy by adding government jobs.



rulemylife -> RE: Study Shows Legalizing Undocumented Immigrants Would Produce $1.5 Trillion Benefit (1/11/2010 10:00:29 PM)

I think he was trying to make the argument that you just stated, but in reverse.

If you add those workers who are currently "under the table" you are adding to the economic figures and increasing the tax base.

That being said, I don't believe we should be granting amnesty to those who entered the country illegally when there were legal channels to do so.

As far as characterizing it as a Democratic issue, let's not forget Reagan's amnesty program and Bush's attempt to do the same:

FOXNews.com - Bush Amnesty Plan Threatens U.S. Economy - Opinion

Three weeks ago there was no one among Republican voters who would have said that fixing the problem of illegal immigration to the U.S. meant granting amnesty to an estimated eight million illegal aliens, the majority of whom have entered the U.S. without a visa by walking across our border with Mexico. 
But that is precisely what President Bush said last week he intends to do, as he posed for pictures before a Mexican flag in Monterrey, Mexico. To his left was Mexican President Vicente Fox (search ), who -- in an even more alarming image -- was framed by the Stars and Stripes as he smiled for the cameras.




willbeurdaddy -> RE: Study Shows Legalizing Undocumented Immigrants Would Produce $1.5 Trillion Benefit (1/11/2010 10:11:32 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: rulemylife

I think he was trying to make the argument that you just stated, but in reverse.

If you add those workers who are currently "under the table" you are adding to the economic figures and increasing the tax base.





But you DONT increase the tax base. Whatever additional wages wind up being paid over the table either decrease profits, which are taxable, or decrease others peoples wages due to the competition.

GDP and the resulting taxes are a zero sum game....add to one pocket and you take it away from another pocket...except for two factors. Increases in productivity, and innovation that creates new markets. Adding employees to the labor force does neither.



Silence8 -> RE: Study Shows Legalizing Undocumented Immigrants Would Produce $1.5 Trillion Benefit (1/11/2010 10:55:32 PM)

Interesting idea, Brain, I'm not sure really whether it's true. Huh.

Well, if newly-legals found better-paying (legal) jobs, low-income spending would increase, and that would correspond with an increase in GDP. The same logic would sometimes apply to raising the minimum wage to generate spending, or lowering taxes on the bottom 90%.



willbeurdaddy -> RE: Study Shows Legalizing Undocumented Immigrants Would Produce $1.5 Trillion Benefit (1/11/2010 11:02:39 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Silence8

Interesting idea, Brain, I'm not sure really whether it's true. Huh.

Well, if newly-legals found better-paying (legal) jobs, low-income spending would increase, and that would correspond with an increase in GDP. The same logic would sometimes apply to raising the minimum wage to generate spending, or lowering taxes on the bottom 90%.


I assume your second paragraph was explaining that the idea isnt true, since increase lower income spending does nothing to increase (real) GDP, nor does raising the minimun wage or redistributing income to stimulate spending.



Fellow -> RE: Study Shows Legalizing Undocumented Immigrants Would Produce $1.5 Trillion Benefit (1/12/2010 2:22:13 AM)

When the Bush era immigration debate was going on I speculated the whole legislation rush-through idea was to give the economy needed boost and get Bush safely out of the White House as his term was close to the end. I doubt the 1.5 trillion figure though. The other  question: is money is the only thing that matters for Americans?




eyesopened -> RE: Study Shows Legalizing Undocumented Immigrants Would Produce $1.5 Trillion Benefit (1/12/2010 4:09:54 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Fellow
The other  question: is money is the only thing that matters for Americans?


For American business?  Yes.

The plan cannot work because there is no incentive for business to want legalization.  If you hire an undocumented worker (I know general contractors in SC who do this on a regular basis) they don't pay lower wages, they pay the same wages. What they don't pay is medical insurance premiums, social security taxes, Worker's Compensation.  It is far more lucrative to hire the undocumented than to hire citizens. 

Right now, all any employer has to do is make a free telephone call to Social Security and ask for free verification of a Social Security number.  The call is free, the service is free and it's done immediately over the phone. 

There are so many myths about illegal immigents like they do jobs American's won't do.  Prove it!  There are so many Americans out of work that this little myth is simply untrue.  They can't find jobs in their own country.  Well just do a little search on any job search service online and see if there are any jobs in Mexico.  There are LOTS of jobs in Mexico.
http://www.pri.org/theworld/?q=node/15939
Read about Mexico's treatment of their own undocumented workers!  They have plenty! 
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/28/world/americas/28mexico.html
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2008/02/mexicos-southern-border/cynthia-gorney-text/1

Ya wanna increase the tax base?  Hire citizens and punish those who don't.  There are no reward to business to hire citizens so the only logical step is to administer punishment.  Keep in mind that United States allows more legal immigrents to enter our country than any other country on earth.  We are such a country of pussies that we will harm our own citizens just to avoid being called names.  Shameful.



MzMia -> RE: Study Shows Legalizing Undocumented Immigrants Would Produce $1.5 Trillion Benefit (1/12/2010 4:45:10 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: eyesopened

quote:

ORIGINAL: Fellow
The other  question: is money is the only thing that matters for Americans?


For American business?  Yes.

The plan cannot work because there is no incentive for business to want legalization.  If you hire an undocumented worker (I know general contractors in SC who do this on a regular basis) they don't pay lower wages, they pay the same wages. What they don't pay is medical insurance premiums, social security taxes, Worker's Compensation.  It is far more lucrative to hire the undocumented than to hire citizens. 

Right now, all any employer has to do is make a free telephone call to Social Security and ask for free verification of a Social Security number.  The call is free, the service is free and it's done immediately over the phone. 

There are so many myths about illegal immigents like they do jobs American's won't do.  Prove it!  There are so many Americans out of work that this little myth is simply untrue.  They can't find jobs in their own country.  Well just do a little search on any job search service online and see if there are any jobs in Mexico.  There are LOTS of jobs in Mexico.
http://www.pri.org/theworld/?q=node/15939
Read about Mexico's treatment of their own undocumented workers!  They have plenty! 
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/28/world/americas/28mexico.html
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2008/02/mexicos-southern-border/cynthia-gorney-text/1

Ya wanna increase the tax base?  Hire citizens and punish those who don't.  There are no reward to business to hire citizens so the only logical step is to administer punishment.  Keep in mind that United States allows more legal immigrents to enter our country than any other country on earth.  We are such a country of pussies that we will harm our own citizens just to avoid being called names.  Shameful.



[sm=goodpost.gif]
I might have considered legalizing undocumented workers about 10 years ago.
But now, with unemployment rising towards 20%?
I think I read for every job opening, there are at least 7-10 applicants.
I will research this later, and update my findings, with a LINK!
[;)]



eyesopened -> RE: Study Shows Legalizing Undocumented Immigrants Would Produce $1.5 Trillion Benefit (1/12/2010 4:54:12 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: MzMia

quote:

ORIGINAL: eyesopened

quote:

ORIGINAL: Fellow
The other  question: is money is the only thing that matters for Americans?


For American business?  Yes.

The plan cannot work because there is no incentive for business to want legalization.  If you hire an undocumented worker (I know general contractors in SC who do this on a regular basis) they don't pay lower wages, they pay the same wages. What they don't pay is medical insurance premiums, social security taxes, Worker's Compensation.  It is far more lucrative to hire the undocumented than to hire citizens. 

Right now, all any employer has to do is make a free telephone call to Social Security and ask for free verification of a Social Security number.  The call is free, the service is free and it's done immediately over the phone. 

There are so many myths about illegal immigents like they do jobs American's won't do.  Prove it!  There are so many Americans out of work that this little myth is simply untrue.  They can't find jobs in their own country.  Well just do a little search on any job search service online and see if there are any jobs in Mexico.  There are LOTS of jobs in Mexico.
http://www.pri.org/theworld/?q=node/15939
Read about Mexico's treatment of their own undocumented workers!  They have plenty! 
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/28/world/americas/28mexico.html
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2008/02/mexicos-southern-border/cynthia-gorney-text/1

Ya wanna increase the tax base?  Hire citizens and punish those who don't.  There are no reward to business to hire citizens so the only logical step is to administer punishment.  Keep in mind that United States allows more legal immigrents to enter our country than any other country on earth.  We are such a country of pussies that we will harm our own citizens just to avoid being called names.  Shameful.



[sm=goodpost.gif]
I might have considered legalizing undocumented workers about 10 years ago.
But now, with unemployment rising towards 20%?
I think I read for every job opening, there are at least 7-10 applicants.
I will research this later, and update my findings, with a LINK!
[;)]


I don't know about all jobs but I know for the ones I've applied to over the past year, including the one I have, there were hundreds of applicants per posting.  My company posted a job for a receptionist, minimum wage, one day in the Sunday paper, no posting on any of the job search engines and they received over 150 resumes.



vincentML -> RE: Study Shows Legalizing Undocumented Immigrants Would Produce $1.5 Trillion Benefit (1/12/2010 4:56:15 AM)

We have heard these arguments repeatedly throughout our history. I will not deny there is some validity in the anti-immigrant position. I am saying it is all too familiar. In the first ten years of the 20th Century more than 200,000 Italians came to these golden shores each year. There arose such a Nativist panic to result in the 1924 Immigration Law which set quotas at 3845 Italians per year vs 34,007 British per year. The same arguments were involved: they took jobs away from Americans vs they did jobs no one else would do. Additionally, my ancestors were called derrogatory names like "guinea" for the darkness of our skin, and wop and dago. They were exploited then as the Latinos are today.

Somehow, Italian Americans turned out to be productive and patriotic citizens and the Nation's economy benefited. LOL Sicily petitioned to become a State in the Union after WW II

Previously, there were similar outcries against the immigration of Germans (by Ben Franklin no less) and against the Irish in the 1840s or thereabouts. And against the "yellow peril" at the end of the 19th Century. Asians were excluded after the railroads were built.

What I am saying here is while I can sympathize with some of the concerns, this anti-immigration fervor has a long history and even lead to the formation of the American Party aka the "Know Nothings" who merged with the Northern Whigs to form the Republican Party that nominated Lincoln. The Irish immigrant controversy and the competition for jobs had some part in the New York City draft law riots of 1863 that lead to the murder of a number of free Africans in that city.

Everything old is new again. Does someone have a workable solution for what to do with 12 million undocumented workers who are here today?



eyesopened -> RE: Study Shows Legalizing Undocumented Immigrants Would Produce $1.5 Trillion Benefit (1/12/2010 4:59:34 AM)

I found this:

“The average number of applicants across the board, including applicants for executive positions, is more than 200 per job,” he reports. “In the first hour that we looked to fill an executive assistant position, we received 500 applications and shut down the search.”
http://www.workforce.com/section/06/feature/26/55/70/



eyesopened -> RE: Study Shows Legalizing Undocumented Immigrants Would Produce $1.5 Trillion Benefit (1/12/2010 5:10:01 AM)

The biggest difference in the example you provided is these were legal immigrants, not folks breaking and entering.

The solution is really is simple.  Target the businesses who hire illegals.  They can't find work, they won't stay.  Next is deny social services to illegals.  They can't get free sevices, they won't stay.  Perhaps the most important step is to change our Social Security system to issue cards that cannot be counterfeited and crack down on the people selling the SS numbers of our children and the deceased.  Really not that difficult.

When my own son applied at Target (all gods bless them, they actually DO check SSNs) they could not hire him because it turned out someone named Hector Santiago had that SSN.  My SON had to do all the legwork to prove the SSN was actually his, then go to all the credit bureaus to make sure ole Hector hadn't already ruined his credit.  Again, shameful!



housesub4you -> RE: Study Shows Legalizing Undocumented Immigrants Would Produce $1.5 Trillion Benefit (1/12/2010 6:48:34 AM)

Actually this theory has been de-bunked, the numbers they came have not proved to be accurate.  This was on the news last week and just about everyone who looked at the numbers said they are mis-leading and have no basis of truth to support their claims

And if you look up studies done by Raúl Hinojosa-Ojeda you will find that most of his research is based on his opinion not the scientific process, which is why most people tend to ignore his findings









SL4V3M4YB3 -> RE: Study Shows Legalizing Undocumented Immigrants Would Produce $1.5 Trillion Benefit (1/12/2010 7:13:44 AM)

FR
Such economic forecasts are ignoring two points:

Some people will always avoid paying tax on their business practices regardless of their citizenship status.

Further immigrants outside the country whose value to the state is currently zero will be encouraged to chance their arm rather than follow a set process (refer to Spain’s five amnesty attempts).



vincentML -> RE: Study Shows Legalizing Undocumented Immigrants Would Produce $1.5 Trillion Benefit (1/12/2010 8:52:00 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: eyesopened

The biggest difference in the example you provided is these were legal immigrants, not folks breaking and entering.

The solution is really is simple.  Target the businesses who hire illegals.  They can't find work, they won't stay.  Next is deny social services to illegals.  They can't get free sevices, they won't stay.  Perhaps the most important step is to change our Social Security system to issue cards that cannot be counterfeited and crack down on the people selling the SS numbers of our children and the deceased.  Really not that difficult.

When my own son applied at Target (all gods bless them, they actually DO check SSNs) they could not hire him because it turned out someone named Hector Santiago had that SSN.  My SON had to do all the legwork to prove the SSN was actually his, then go to all the credit bureaus to make sure ole Hector hadn't already ruined his credit.  Again, shameful!


Check me on this but I think the SC has already ruled that illegals are "persons" and cannot be denied 14th Amendment Equal Protection and so are eligible for medical and educational services. Not sure about food stamps, etc.

Regrets about the ordeal your son went through but I am dubious that any federal agency can come up with a plan that cannot be subverted. As an example, despite all the changes in color and configuration of our $100 bills, counterfeiting of the greenback remains a worldwide industry.

Legal or illegal, Italians and eastern Europeans were exploited for their Labor just as the Chinese were and the Latinos are now. Cheap labor has always been a goal of Capitalism, no? When times are tough we push back. There was a recession in the early 1920s when the law was passed to discriminate against southern and eastern europeans. There was an agricultural recession in the late 19th Century when the populist movement arose in the West and we had had enough of Chinese men. We have had open borders with Mexico for 230 years and were proud of it. During WW II we recruited Mexican Labor so American boys could leave the farms and go fight. Now we are frightened by the threat of terrorism and by the loss of jobs. History of immigration has a way of ebbing and flowing.

The big unanswered question is what is to be done with the 12 million already here? Many with children born here and many with good, tax paying jobs. Are we to expand the ICE service and have an endless and expensive "war on immigrants" to match the "war on drugs?" Or is it more beneficial to us as a society to provide a pathway to citizenship for the 12 million along with some of the remedies you suggest to slow the flow?

Ironically, Italy is now suffering a similar problem with illegals from Libya. lol News article here.



cuckoldmepls -> RE: Study Shows Legalizing Undocumented Immigrants Would Produce $1.5 Trillion Benefit (1/12/2010 12:43:47 PM)

You will believe anything the government tells you won't you?

First of all, they cost us about a trillion per year in freebies ranging from free healthcare, free lunch room meals including breakfast, lunch and sometimes supper, and free education. We also have to expand all our infrastructure including roads and bridges which we already can't even afford to maintain as it is. Just the Illegal Aliens who are in prison cost us probably have a trillion per year.

Second of all, there's no way they can possibly contribute more than they already are. Legalizing will not change anything. They aren't paying taxes now, and they won't pay taxes when they are legalized. They work for cash and sometimes even pesos. It's a huge underground economy and they have no intentions of paying into Uncle Sam. Third, they are no longer working just  in the fields. Now they are taking away good paying jobs from American citizens.

Do you realize that we could cut the unemployment rate in half, simply by enforcing our immigration laws and passing the everify system?

We are about to become the laughing stock of the world, when people realize that we can no longer control our borders. Every 3rd world country in the world is going to expedite sending their unemployed here. You are lookign at a hell hole in 50 years, with graffiti, drugs, and gang warfare rampant.

http://babelishere.webs.com/aware.html
http://www.numbersusa.com

To top it all off, more Americans have been killed by Illegal Aliens than in the entire Iraq war? It's absolutely shameful that some Americans are willing to allow this to continue.




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