Thadius -> RE: 51% Of Self-Identified Republicans In Swing Districts Favor A Public Option (1/28/2010 4:50:17 PM)
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Evening Ken, I did actually click through to see the full poll, and to check out what methods were used for it. As the quote about "even in swing districts ...", which suggests that in non-swing districts this is already settled fact. Anyways, after checking out the poll and the 10 districts that they called swing districts, I wonder what the polling data would show for the other 48 or so "swing seats". 7 of the 10 freshman Dem districts they polled have a PVI that leans to the left as it is, with an average of 2.24. With a margin of error of 6.9% for each district, and how close the polling actually was, I would suggest that this is far from a mandate. There were a couple of really interesting questions in the poll, and the results seem to contradict (in my opiniion) the suggestion that the public option is hugely important. quote:
QUESTION: If Congress does not pass a public health insurance option as part of health care reform, will that make you more likely or less likely to vote for Democrats in the 2010 general election or would it have no real effect on your vote? MORE LESS NO EFFECT OVERALL 10% 35% 55% DEMOCRATS 5% 55% 40% REPUBLICANS 19% 6% 75% INDEPENDENTS 8% 43% 49% CO-04 (Markey) 11% 34% 55% FL-24 (Kosmas) 14% 36% 50% MI-07 (Schauer) 7% 39% 54% NC-08 (Kissell) 7% 38% 55% NM-01 (Heinrich) 9% 35% 56% NM-02 (Teague) 13% 34% 53% OH-01 (Driehaus) 10% 33% 57% OH-15 (Kilroy) 11% 34% 55% OH-16 (Boccieri) 12% 32% 56% VA-05 (Perriello) 10% 32% 58% *Note most folks say it will have no effect on who they will vote for. quote:
QUESTION: If Congress does not pass a public option as part of health care reform, will that make you more likely or less likely to vote in the 2010 general election, or no effect? MORE LESS NO EFFECT OVERALL 10% 33% 57% DEMOCRATS 5% 52% 43% REPUBLICANS 18% 11% 71% INDEPENDENTS 7% 42% 51% CO-04 (Markey) 11% 31% 58% FL-24 (Kosmas) 12% 32% 56% MI-07 (Schauer) 7% 36% 57% NC-08 (Kissell) 8% 37% 55% NM-01 (Heinrich) 9% 35% 56% NM-02 (Teague) 10% 33% 57% OH-01 (Driehaus) 10% 33% 57% OH-15 (Kilroy) 9% 32% 59% OH-16 (Boccieri) 10% 30% 60% VA-05 (Perriello) 12% 31% 57% *Note most folks say that it won't effect whether they even vote or not. quote:
QUESTION: Would you be more likely to vote for the re-election of your local Democratic House member if they worked to pass the Senate’s version of health care reform with minimal changes, if any – OR if they worked to add a public health insurance option to the bill that competes head-to-head with private insurance? PUBLIC OPTION SENATE NOT SURE OVERALL 37% 7% 56% DEMOCRATS 75% 10% 15% REPUBLICANS 6% 4% 90% INDEPENDENTS 33% 6% 61% *Note the reponses from Repubs and Indies... Definitely an advocacy poll, but there is nothing wrong with either side getting some numbers to snapshot how their policies and positions are sitting with the people. The only problem with this type of polling (on both sides of the political spectrum) is the believing that these polls are the gospel, or in only seeing what you want to see in them. Have a great night, Thadius
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