Aylee
Posts: 24103
Joined: 10/14/2007 Status: offline
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ORIGINAL: Level quote:
A gloomy mood might seem to be justified at the moment. Unemployment is nearing 10%. We have just witnessed a bitter financial crisis, a series of debt-deepening bailouts and a bruising fight over health care. Conservatives fret that we're running out of time to tackle the entitlement crisis. Liberals fret that we're running out of time to tackle the climate crisis. Roughly 60% of poll respondents say that America is on the wrong track. Meanwhile, China has resumed its torrid economic growth and has become for the U.S. what Japan was in the 1980s—the seemingly unstoppable Asian force that will soon leave America's economy behind. How to respond? "Declinists have always projected America's imminent demise," the editors of Newsweek wrote earlier this month. "For a change, they're onto something." Joel Kotkin would disagree. In fact, he is in a cheerful mood, in part because he has been thinking less about the present than about the near future, when the news, he says, is likely to be much brighter, at least for America. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704117304575137873173648114.html This does seem to make some sense to me. Curious about other's thoughts. I think that he is wrong. Overall, birth rates are declining, not increasing and that is in all countries. By about 2050, it would not be surprising to see an overall population decline across the globe. As far as China goes, their economic growth is unsustainable. While their coastal areas are doing well, their interior areas are not. They have incrediably high unemployment and so any economic downturn will likely lead to fragmentation and regional competition and a weak central government. Much like pre-Mao China. As far as the demise of the US. This is unlikely as the US controls the oceans, meaning that it controls trade. No other country has a navy that could challenge the US navy, and a navel build-up for any country would take about 2 decades at least. And there are my thoughts, although this is not really my area of expertise.
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Ceterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam I don’t always wgah’nagl fhtagn. But when I do, I ph’nglui mglw’nafh R’lyeh.
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