RE: So, when will industrial civilization collapse? (Full Version)

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vincentML -> RE: So, when will industrial civilization collapse? (5/19/2010 8:07:44 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: subtee

~FR

Will the outfits maybe be something like this?

[image]http://images.art.com/images/-/Raquel-Welch---One-Million-Years-BC--C10101932.jpeg[/image]


omfg!!! I hope so. [:)]




vincentML -> RE: So, when will industrial civilization collapse? (5/19/2010 8:12:34 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Dubbelganger

@Term: I agree, the ultimate problem is overpopulation. Ironically, it is the availability of extremely cheap energy which allows overpop. The "Green Revolution" in agriculture is the product of cheap feedstocks for chemical fertilizers. That allowed cheap food, which created the population explosion.

I think INdia and CHina are well and truly fucked, because they both have exceeded the carrying capacity of their ecosystems. I think that when chemical fertilizers become too expensive to support industrial agriculture, there will be food riots, and ultimately mass famine.


"And that will be bad because ......?" Thomas Robert Malthus _1798




tazzygirl -> RE: So, when will industrial civilization collapse? (5/19/2010 10:09:16 PM)

lol

completed by a turian style collar, no doubt!




Dubbelganger -> RE: So, when will industrial civilization collapse? (5/19/2010 11:06:06 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML


quote:

ORIGINAL: Dubbelganger

@Term: I agree, the ultimate problem is overpopulation. Ironically, it is the availability of extremely cheap energy which allows overpop. The "Green Revolution" in agriculture is the product of cheap feedstocks for chemical fertilizers. That allowed cheap food, which created the population explosion.

I think INdia and CHina are well and truly fucked, because they both have exceeded the carrying capacity of their ecosystems. I think that when chemical fertilizers become too expensive to support industrial agriculture, there will be food riots, and ultimately mass famine.


"And that will be bad because ......?" Thomas Robert Malthus _1798
Well, I think a substantial reduction in the Earth's population is a good, even necessary, thing. I would prefer to achieve it through birth control and social policies rather than starvation. There's enough pain and misery on the planet.

Our fundamental problem is overpopulation, IMO.




Termyn8or -> RE: So, when will industrial civilization collapse? (5/20/2010 1:27:18 AM)

The social policies needed for that would have to be geared toward attrition, and I don't think too many will agree with it. When China started discouraging people from having too many kids people were up in arms. But they had serious problems and serious solutions were needed.

First thing to do would be to make people pay for their own damn kids. No more AFDC, no more tax credits for anything that costs to raise a child. Pregnant ? Sure for a the the gov will pay your hospital bill, but if so it comes with free sterilization, package deal. And this happens if you don't pay up front or have insurance. Then your insurance goes up of course, but there is no corresponding tax break.

At best even the most draconian social policies to make any significant change without out and out murder are likely to take 40-50 years to produce results.

The ZPG people of years ago pretty much said "Don't go there" but here we are. They have been proven right.

T




vincentML -> RE: So, when will industrial civilization collapse? (5/20/2010 6:51:14 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Termyn8or

The social policies needed for that would have to be geared toward attrition, and I don't think too many will agree with it. When China started discouraging people from having too many kids people were up in arms. But they had serious problems and serious solutions were needed.

First thing to do would be to make people pay for their own damn kids. No more AFDC, no more tax credits for anything that costs to raise a child. Pregnant ? Sure for a the the gov will pay your hospital bill, but if so it comes with free sterilization, package deal. And this happens if you don't pay up front or have insurance. Then your insurance goes up of course, but there is no corresponding tax break.

At best even the most draconian social policies to make any significant change without out and out murder are likely to take 40-50 years to produce results.

The ZPG people of years ago pretty much said "Don't go there" but here we are. They have been proven right.

T


Actually, the western nations have fallen below the population replacement birthrate. And nations like Russia who are simultaneously experienceing net emigration are facing a future with inadequate population. Not sure what inadequate means actually. Anyway, Malthus would approve of your prescription, Term. He was saying pretty much the same thing in defending (I think) a draconian set of laws called the Corn Laws. Musta been a big tax on grain but I don't really remember. Before my time :)




Elisabella -> RE: So, when will industrial civilization collapse? (5/20/2010 6:56:03 AM)

quote:

Postindustrial age ?  You get the word of the day award. Not that I am up on fiction, but the notion has been postulated more than once. It might just be time to take a more realistic view.


Postindustrial simply means after industrial.

I can't predict what that world will look like any more than someone at the start of the Industrial Revolution could have predicted plastics. The real question is whether they will consider the present times to have been the dark ages or a golden age. It's all perspective, really...what we now call the Renaissance was a theocratic age rife with poverty, disease, corruption and caste system.

I'm not too worried about it. I'll adapt, or I'll die. Fixing an idea in my mind of What It Will Be Like will hinder my ability to adapt.




vincentML -> RE: So, when will industrial civilization collapse? (5/20/2010 6:58:47 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Dubbelganger


quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML


quote:

ORIGINAL: Dubbelganger

@Term: I agree, the ultimate problem is overpopulation. Ironically, it is the availability of extremely cheap energy which allows overpop. The "Green Revolution" in agriculture is the product of cheap feedstocks for chemical fertilizers. That allowed cheap food, which created the population explosion.

I think INdia and CHina are well and truly fucked, because they both have exceeded the carrying capacity of their ecosystems. I think that when chemical fertilizers become too expensive to support industrial agriculture, there will be food riots, and ultimately mass famine.


"And that will be bad because ......?" Thomas Robert Malthus _1798
Well, I think a substantial reduction in the Earth's population is a good, even necessary, thing. I would prefer to achieve it through birth control and social policies rather than starvation. There's enough pain and misery on the planet.

Our fundamental problem is overpopulation, IMO.



Your preference for social policy ignores the political realities of tribal and subsistence living in Asia, Middle East, Africa, and South America. I'm sure you know that so just commenting here. Malthus would have frowned on all these NGOs providing farming and health assistance to the historically impoverished and over-populated portions of the world. Robert D Kaplin wrote a provocative book on this topic: The Coming Anarchy. Perhaps you have read it.




pahunkboy -> RE: So, when will industrial civilization collapse? (5/20/2010 7:28:32 AM)

Why so glum?

The govt will kill us when we get there.  And would you really want to live thru it?

In my lifetime- I dont see it as a problem.  I mean- I have had it good- and will be ok.

A 3rd WW is planned to thin out the herd.  So ok- that will help.    So there we go.  I do know that the petty attitude that many in the US have= must change.   No more.




vincentML -> RE: So, when will industrial civilization collapse? (5/20/2010 10:11:05 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: pahunkboy

Why so glum?

The govt will kill us when we get there.  And would you really want to live thru it?



They could simply call us by Soc Sec number and have us line up as "volunteers" for the soylent green cookie maker.

But then, all those undocumented immigrants would inherit the earth. [sm=rofl.gif]




pahunkboy -> RE: So, when will industrial civilization collapse? (5/20/2010 10:22:00 AM)

Well  we do have plans for everything==  unless ya count oil spills. lol.




Aneirin -> RE: So, when will industrial civilization collapse? (5/20/2010 6:30:13 PM)

The question is, would we have a shortage or arable food, if it wasn't for the fact that a hefty quantity of land that is available for arable product, is used to grow animal feed, so a minority of the world can buy and eat cheap meat. We are not carnivores, why do we feel the need to eat meat. Cut the meat consumption and free up land for human food, then maybe we might have less cow farts fucking up our atmosphere, not to mention human farts from meat slowly being digested in a system not designed for digesting meat.




vincentML -> RE: So, when will industrial civilization collapse? (5/20/2010 7:00:10 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Aneirin

The question is, would we have a shortage or arable food, if it wasn't for the fact that a hefty quantity of land that is available for arable product, is used to grow animal feed, so a minority of the world can buy and eat cheap meat. We are not carnivores, why do we feel the need to eat meat. Cut the meat consumption and free up land for human food, then maybe we might have less cow farts fucking up our atmosphere, not to mention human farts from meat slowly being digested in a system not designed for digesting meat.



I truly do not understand your comment: "a system not designed for digesting meat"

First, I haven't seen the design prints and models. Evolution maybe???

Secondly, what was all that hunter/gatherer culture? Did they fail to get the message?

Thirdly, what is it with all those enzymes that digest protein?

I wonder if you are not making a political statement rather than one based upon physiology.

Would appreciate more detail. Thanks.




subtee -> RE: So, when will industrial civilization collapse? (5/20/2010 8:27:23 PM)

Well cool on you and going on cool. I was for realz worried about the boyz until you and Vincent actually had a non-nerdificent reaction. Scary!

God bless the menz.




Vaughner -> RE: So, when will industrial civilization collapse? (5/20/2010 8:41:58 PM)

The overwhelming majority of methods to produce electricity come down to one very simple concept....boil large quantities of water to create steam that spins a turbine. Coal, Oil, even Nuclear all function on this premise. So long as we have a means to generate heat, we can generate electricity.

I get so goddamn tired of hearing all these theories about how the planet is over-populated, and how it can't sustain any more people. Farmers right here in the US, the world's leading producer of food, are regularly paid NOT to produce food. Meanwhile enormous tracts of land in the US, Russia, India, Africa, Australia, are completely uninhabited due primarily to lack of drive to make them habitable. Even the great deserts can be made habitable, man has been doing it for thousands of years.

In many countries where the population outstrips the means, it is not for lack of resources, but for the presence of those who horde them from the masses. When a population truly outstrips its local capacity, the end result is inevitably immigration and/or war.

Not to mention no one has ever explained to me why if you pump an oil-well dry, cap it, and come back in 50 years there is oil in it again. (Never heard that one on the news did you?)

Though if oil does start to become hard to come by you'll see renewed interest in fission power, additional funding for fusion power, and many of these superfulous "nature preserves" containing low-sulpher coal and oil that were closed off to appease the environmentalists will transform...the elk and the caribou will just have to deal.

Not to mention with countries like China that have a severe excess of males vs females, history shows us that it is a self-correcting problem. If a population begins to outgrow it's means it often corrects itself well before said means is exhausted.

I do not wish to ramble, so I will close with this.

Civilization will collapse if and when 2 things are perfected, The Holodeck, and the Replicator. When the latter replaces everyone's job, that which has predicated the development of all civilization will be gone. When someone invents the former, when men can have all the horny naked women, endless football games, and battles between ninjas and pirates they could want, meanwhile while women have all the chocolate, expectation-free footrubs, and doting they could want...there will be no motivation in life beyond keeping power to the holodeck.


In short, until those two things happen, I don't think civilization is in any huge danger of anything more than self-correction.




Silence8 -> RE: So, when will industrial civilization collapse? (5/20/2010 8:53:10 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML


quote:

ORIGINAL: Aneirin

The question is, would we have a shortage or arable food, if it wasn't for the fact that a hefty quantity of land that is available for arable product, is used to grow animal feed, so a minority of the world can buy and eat cheap meat. We are not carnivores, why do we feel the need to eat meat. Cut the meat consumption and free up land for human food, then maybe we might have less cow farts fucking up our atmosphere, not to mention human farts from meat slowly being digested in a system not designed for digesting meat.



I truly do not understand your comment: "a system not designed for digesting meat"

First, I haven't seen the design prints and models. Evolution maybe???

Secondly, what was all that hunter/gatherer culture? Did they fail to get the message?

Thirdly, what is it with all those enzymes that digest protein?

I wonder if you are not making a political statement rather than one based upon physiology.

Would appreciate more detail. Thanks.


The cost of raising animals to eat is (or would be) dramatically higher than that of raising plants to eat (were it not for government subsidies).

People from other countries who come to the U.S. are usually pretty shocked than our vegetables are more expensive than our meat products -- for good reason, because it's ridiculous.

Not to mention all the ugly people. And the healthcare costs. And the dependency on oil produced by concentration-camp-food-production.

And the trade policies that directly relate to starvation abroad.

A small amount of meat can deal with all the extraneous factors that you emphasize.




vincentML -> RE: So, when will industrial civilization collapse? (5/21/2010 6:37:47 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Silence8


quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML


quote:

ORIGINAL: Aneirin

The question is, would we have a shortage or arable food, if it wasn't for the fact that a hefty quantity of land that is available for arable product, is used to grow animal feed, so a minority of the world can buy and eat cheap meat. We are not carnivores, why do we feel the need to eat meat. Cut the meat consumption and free up land for human food, then maybe we might have less cow farts fucking up our atmosphere, not to mention human farts from meat slowly being digested in a system not designed for digesting meat.



I truly do not understand your comment: "a system not designed for digesting meat"

First, I haven't seen the design prints and models. Evolution maybe???

Secondly, what was all that hunter/gatherer culture? Did they fail to get the message?

Thirdly, what is it with all those enzymes that digest protein?

I wonder if you are not making a political statement rather than one based upon physiology.

Would appreciate more detail. Thanks.


The cost of raising animals to eat is (or would be) dramatically higher than that of raising plants to eat (were it not for government subsidies).

People from other countries who come to the U.S. are usually pretty shocked than our vegetables are more expensive than our meat products -- for good reason, because it's ridiculous.

Not to mention all the ugly people. And the healthcare costs. And the dependency on oil produced by concentration-camp-food-production.

And the trade policies that directly relate to starvation abroad.

A small amount of meat can deal with all the extraneous factors that you emphasize.


Silence8, perhaps you missed the point. Aneirin was referring to the human digestion system not the food distribution system.

As to your comments.... I'm not aware that agricultural subsidies favor livestock production over plants for human consumption. Don't you think end user demand may be a factor?

When I complained about high prices of fruits and vegetables my grocer responded by pointing out that customers want their goodies year round despite the season, so much is freighted in from overseas, thus increasing the cost.

Ugly people? Well yes, you have a point. But people are free to make choices although I have read choices for fresh vegetables are zero in many impoverished, innercity areas because there are none for sale. Obesity seems to be a problem among rural folk as well but I am not aware that the cause is the same. Are there more MacDonalds than farmers' produce stands in the countryside? Dunno. There does seem to be a correlation between education levels and fat/obesity. But just a correlation. Maybe extraneous factors like joblessness, dependency on food stamps, sedentary lifestyle, whatever. Again, dunno.

I do agree with your last two comments. A small amount of meat should suffice. Restaurant portions are ridiculously large. Gross.

And I understand that ag subsidies to Arkansas farmers (ala Mr Clinton who now regrets it) have done much to tilt the market away from home grown farm products in Haiti, devastating that poor country's agriculture.

Don't know if there is a solution to the issues you raise. But you make good points.





vincentML -> RE: So, when will industrial civilization collapse? (5/21/2010 6:53:38 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Vaughner

The overwhelming majority of methods to produce electricity come down to one very simple concept....boil large quantities of water to create steam that spins a turbine. Coal, Oil, even Nuclear all function on this premise. So long as we have a means to generate heat, we can generate electricity.

I get so goddamn tired of hearing all these theories about how the planet is over-populated, and how it can't sustain any more people. Farmers right here in the US, the world's leading producer of food, are regularly paid NOT to produce food. Meanwhile enormous tracts of land in the US, Russia, India, Africa, Australia, are completely uninhabited due primarily to lack of drive to make them habitable. Even the great deserts can be made habitable, man has been doing it for thousands of years.


The world does not subsist on agriculture alone. Jobs are needed so people can pay for food so farmers will grow more. The population disparity lies in the great numbers of young men who are unemployed world-wide. It is they who join rebel armies and causes.

quote:

In many countries where the population outstrips the means, it is not for lack of resources, but for the presence of those who horde them from the masses. When a population truly outstrips its local capacity, the end result is inevitably immigration and/or war.


Agree, political corruption more often lies at the root cause of malnourishment in the dark continents.

quote:

Not to mention no one has ever explained to me why if you pump an oil-well dry, cap it, and come back in 50 years there is oil in it again. (Never heard that one on the news did you?)


No, I haven't but my guess would be that the oil scattered in the surrounding rock above settles down by force of gravity and collects in the cavity left by the previous drilling.

quote:

Though if oil does start to become hard to come by you'll see renewed interest in fission power, additional funding for fusion power, and many of these superfulous "nature preserves" containing low-sulpher coal and oil that were closed off to appease the environmentalists will transform...the elk and the caribou will just have to deal.


Yes, but this latest spill in the Gulf is a setback, doncha think?

quote:

Not to mention with countries like China that have a severe excess of males vs females, history shows us that it is a self-correcting problem. If a population begins to outgrow it's means it often corrects itself well before said means is exhausted.


That was Malthus' point I think.


quote:

Civilization will collapse if and when 2 things are perfected, The Holodeck, and the Replicator. When the latter replaces everyone's job, that which has predicated the development of all civilization will be gone. When someone invents the former, when men can have all the horny naked women, endless football games, and battles between ninjas and pirates they could want, meanwhile while women have all the chocolate, expectation-free footrubs, and doting they could want...there will be no motivation in life beyond keeping power to the holodeck.


Ahhhhh....Paradise Now! [:D]





thompsonx -> RE: So, when will industrial civilization collapse? (5/22/2010 7:14:25 AM)

quote:

I'm not aware that agricultural subsidies favor livestock production over plants for human consumption. Don't you think end user demand may be a factor?


Most beef cattle are raised in feed lots on subsidized corn. That is why grass fed beef is more expensive.




Dubbelganger -> RE: So, when will industrial civilization collapse? (5/22/2010 1:07:27 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Vaughner

Not to mention no one has ever explained to me why if you pump an oil-well dry, cap it, and come back in 50 years there is oil in it again. (Never heard that one on the news did you?)
Now, this is downright interesting. In my 10 years at Shell Research, I never heard such a thing. You have a source for this, right?

quote:

Though if oil does start to become hard to come by you'll see renewed interest in fission power, additional funding for fusion power, and many of these superfulous "nature preserves" containing low-sulpher coal and oil that were closed off to appease the environmentalists will transform...the elk and the caribou will just have to deal.
Google "Peak Uranium". The rest of this is just horseshit.






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