willbeurdaddy
Posts: 11894
Joined: 4/8/2006 Status: offline
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quote:
ORIGINAL: flcouple2009 quote:
ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy Too bad the author of the article doesnt understand how speculation impacts current prices, and therefore places the "blame" in the wrong place. Futures/derivatives/speculation do not and cannot DIRECTLY impact current prices. Their actions are simply bets on future prices, sometimes to cover existing risk, sometimes just as a gamble. It is a zero sum game. Somebody wins and somebody loses on every futures contract. So how does speculation INDIRECTLY affect current prices? If it is done in sufficient volume, then producers horde their product expecting that as the futures contracts eventually unwind, it will be at higher deliverable price than they currently command. The producers artificially lower supply, and if demand is inflexible, as it generally is in food and energy, then price goes up. So dont blame the speculators, blame the farmers. Oh, I forgot, they arent as much fun to blame as Wall Street. Oh Wilbbbuuuuur, remember it is better to remain silent and be thought of a fool than speak and remove all doubt. But as we all know you erased the doubt ages ago. You think all of these people were buying oil futures for 3 years from now? there was a lot of speculation on 30, 60, and 90 contracts. You think that doesn't effect the price now? Not to mention that speculation like that effects the prices on the spot market. But wait, oh yes you know something magical that the economist who tell you these things don't know. lol You do understand the difference between directly and indirectly, right? google them if not. and what I said would not be disagree with by any economist. Supply and demand causes price changes, not speculation. Speculation only indirectly affects supply. Try a thought experiment, if thats not too difficult for you. Suppose that oil futures are traded in a private and invisible market. One party agrees to buy 1 billion barrels in 30 days at $X and the other party guarantees to supply the buyer by buying it himself on the open market at whatever he has to pay. Since the market is totally invisible and private, how can it affect prices? answer..it cant. The factor of invisibility doesnt change the nature of the actual futures contracts one iota in that regard. In fact companies enter into private futures contracts all the time, without going thru the open market...totally invisible. Is there spooky action at a distance that affects prices? So do me a favor. Take your condescending attitude and shove it up your ass. You have no clue what youre talking about.
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