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willbeurdaddy -> RE: Obama spokesman says Democrats could lose House (7/11/2010 7:56:35 PM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: TheHeretic
If the remarks are an effort to stir up their base, it will backfire. If they are trying to lower expectations this early in the game, that speaks of a sense of doom hanging over them.
We are still very much in "anything can happen" territory, but if all the trends keep running the way they are, we might be looking at 1894 instead of 1994. (slowly but steadily declining Presidential approval, a crap economy with high unemployment, and most importantly, a lot of thinking independents who have developed some buyers remorse with Pres. Obama and will feel better with an opposition Congress)
3 1/2 months is no longer "anything can happen" territiory. Yes, its still "shit happens" territory, but those unexpected events are almost exclusively bad news.
Unemployment will not get significantly better and wont come close to the 8% that wasnt supposed to happen in the first place. The economy doesnt have time to improve materially, and the possibility of sinking back into recession very real. Afghanistan wont improve (though capturing/killing Bin Laden would be a positive event for the Dems). DOJ scandals could create chaos but produce nothing good. The spill should be under control and the cleanup underway, but its far too late to stop the Katrina-like soundbites...it will just stop some of the bleeding. Pursuing the suit against Arizona will hurt, and may hurt even more if they win than if they lose. the Dems best bet here is to double the presence on the border and run a few high profile raids against employers. That is the only place I see where they can reverse some of the damage theyve done to themselves.
Of course they could extend the Bush tax cuts....but that might cost as many leftie defections as it does pick up indies.
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