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willbeurdaddy -> RE: TIME magazine: Dems Start to Panic as Reality of Midterm Woes Sets In (7/19/2010 12:10:21 PM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: ThatDamnedPanda
quote:
ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy
If there is a Dem bloodletting in November, the lame duck session could be very dicey. You could find several of the RINOs that are not up for re-election in 2010 joining forces with the Dems, sensing that they are out in 2012 anyway.
That is definitely possible. Trouble is, conventional wisdoms are very difficult to apply with any degree of reliability at this particular period in political history. In many ways, it's a whole new ball game. So many variables that have never been present before, and it's very difficult to assign them the proper weighting in any comprehensive evaluation. Too much of this will be directly affected by events that are beyond our control and prediction - how will the economy be doing in 2011? Gas prices? What will be happening in North Korea? Iran? Iraq? Afghanistan? Pakistan? Or any one of a dozen other 'Stans we've never heard of, but may blow up sometime in the next year?
Best guess, though, is that the conventional wisdom about a sitting president benefiting from having a strong opposition to run against is still valid. Obama will probably be stronger in 2012 with a Republican House, especially one led by John Boehner. You could argue that a Republican Senate would also be a benefit, but I'm not sure that benefit would be worth the gridlock and the legislative paralysis that would result from a completely Republican legislature.
At any rate, the point is, whether you and I are right or wrong in our analyses, that's the way Obama is calculating it. I think the chances are that he's probably right, but I can't back that up with anything but an opinion and a gut feeling.
The economy in 2011 will override any other issue with the exception of bad news on the terrorism side. On the economy side, you are correct, Republican control would be Obamas best chance. There is already talk amongst both Dems and Reps of extending the Bush tax cuts for those making $250k and below. That would be a real short term stimulus that could improve the economy for 2011, with all of the pent up demand for corporate cash to be utilized, and obviously would have a better chance of passage without the Dems controlling both houses. It would also give some credibility to Obama's claims of "no middle class tax increases".
The reality is, though, that it would merely be a personal life saver for Obama, but not his policies, which would have to move much more to the middle to have anything at all accomplished in at least the first 2 years of his second admin.
Also extending those Bush tax cuts will not be enough stimulus for the economy if a lame duck session passes cap and trade, and even without cap and trade it might not be enough without some clarity in health reform regulations. There would still be far too much uncertainty for businesses to invest.
In short: Republican control could be a win for both Obama and for conservatives, but a loss for the far left elements that currently control the Dem agenda.
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