What the double dip recession will look like

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StrangerThan -> What the double dip recession will look like (8/16/2010 7:53:00 AM)
Apologies in advance if this is posted elsewhere. I didn't see it. http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work/article/110344/what-the-double-dip-recession-will-look-like Interesting thing is the language. Double-dip used to be talked about in what-if terms. The will-look-like is more ominous. Rather than get into the endless finger pointing wars of who is responsible and the already well documented fallacies of both sides of the political spectrum, what I'd like to see is this taken to main street level. In other words, the article talks about business, government, etc. Doesn't talk much about what would be like for you, me, the rest of the population. edited for clarity

EbonyWood -> RE: What the double dip recession will look like (8/16/2010 8:11:31 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: StrangerThan the article talks about business, government, etc. Doesn't talk much about what would be like for you, me, the rest of the population. I think it does by inference, in terms of long term unemployment, reduced equitable assets, reduced consumer activity and a stock market that will be depressed for a long time to come, to the point of having permanent damage to retirement fund real value. The vast majority of people are already having to accept a reduced standard of living. I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing culturally to shift from a nation too used to excess, but the pain not being shared equally is. I think one 'man in the street' outcome not discussed will be greater social unrest, and a return to previous era paranoia.

StrangerThan -> RE: What the double dip recession will look like (8/16/2010 8:38:20 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: EbonyWood quote: ORIGINAL: StrangerThan the article talks about business, government, etc. Doesn't talk much about what would be like for you, me, the rest of the population. I think it does by inference, in terms of long term unemployment, reduced equitable assets, reduced consumer activity and a stock market that will be depressed for a long time to come, to the point of having permanent damage to retirement fund real value. The vast majority of people are already having to accept a reduced standard of living. I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing culturally to shift from a nation too used to excess, but the pain not being shared equally is. I think one 'man in the street' outcome not discussed will be greater social unrest, and a return to previous era paranoia. Yes, the inference is there. What that equates to in real terms is what's bouncing around in my mind. Soup kitchens? Bread lines? People cast from homes? Social unrest can cover a wide array of action items, anything from riots in the streets to political upheaval. I read elsewhere a few days ago that banks now own more US real estate than citizens do. It makes me wonder how many people are going to end up feeling sold out by politicians, banks, credit card issuers - in short, the way of life that has basically sustained our economy for the last couple of decades.

servantforuse -> RE: What the double dip recession will look like (8/16/2010 9:38:34 AM)
There can't be a double dip recession when we are still in the first one..

Musicmystery -> RE: What the double dip recession will look like (8/16/2010 10:10:40 AM)
quote: There can't be a double dip recession when we are still in the first one.. We've been out of the first one for over a year, with healthy growth well over 3% and as high as 5% at times. But tax cuts funnel money up, without benefits trickling down. We saw this in the 80s, and now again in 00s. Whether that's as it should be or not matters not for this point--the widening poor/middle-class vs. wealthy gap has widened quite considerably, and with incomes soaring for the top 20%, we have created two economies, with the top one responsible for the growth figures, the bottom one still stuck in high unemployment and stagnant growth due to uncertainty and tighter credit. Is this sustainable long term? Arguable, I suppose, though social unrest will come with continuing this way.

Fellow -> RE: What the double dip recession will look like (8/16/2010 11:21:03 AM)
quote: We've been out of the first one for over a year, with healthy growth well over 3% and as high as 5% at times. The GDP growth numbers are not telling the real story. The deficit spending accounts like growth. Some point out US is following Japan footsteps (hiding bank losses) and it will face a decade of depressed economy. Here is an interesting quote: William Black: Well I said it from the beginning, Geithner and Summers were selected and promoted, and the same is true with Bernanke, because they are willing to be wrong and have a consistent track record of being wrong. That's useful for senior politicians but disastrous for the country. ..... It seems to me things are much more serious they seem for some. The whole economic structure and ideology needs to be corrected and there can be only a self-correction (long stagnation). Here is M. Moore observation: "To understand what's happening, we have to focus on the bottom line, just like they do. And what the bottom line says is that the entire business world has figured out how to make huge buckets of money without hiring us to work for them. I'm not sure how in the long run this benefits these companies. Maybe the same robots who make most things now are also programmed to buy them? But the upshot is this: We have to face the fact that most of America's CEOs don't want the economy to get "better." Because for them, it couldn't get better—they've got profit coming out their ears, while with 9.5 percent unemployment their entire workforce is too scared to ask for a 25 cent-an-hour raise. They'd be happy to have things stay just like they are now. Forever."

Marini -> RE: What the double dip recession will look like (8/16/2010 11:34:21 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Fellow quote: We've been out of the first one for over a year, with healthy growth well over 3% and as high as 5% at times. The GDP growth numbers are not telling the real story. The deficit spending accounts like growth. Some point out US is following Japan footsteps (hiding bank losses) and it will face a decade of depressed economy. The United States seems to be getting hit by "the perfect storm" of several events that are knocking us on our collective asses. Everything everywhere is being cut to the bone, and many "programs" will be nothing but bone soon, with nothing left to cut. Here is an interesting quote: William Black: Well I said it from the beginning, Geithner and Summers were selected and promoted, and the same is true with Bernanke, because they are willing to be wrong and have a consistent track record of being wrong. That's useful for senior politicians but disastrous for the country. ..... It seems to me things are much more serious they seem for some. The whole economic structure and ideology needs to be corrected and there can be only a self-correction (long stagnation). Here is M. Moore observation: "To understand what's happening, we have to focus on the bottom line, just like they do. And what the bottom line says is that the entire business world has figured out how to make huge buckets of money without hiring us to work for them. I'm not sure how in the long run this benefits these companies. Maybe the same robots who make most things now are also programmed to buy them? But the upshot is this: We have to face the fact that most of America's CEOs don't want the economy to get "better." Because for them, it couldn't get better—they've got profit coming out their ears, while with 9.5 percent unemployment their entire workforce is too scared to ask for a 25 cent-an-hour raise. They'd be happy to have things stay just like they are now. Forever." We are at a big precipice/turning point in American history. What is going on is so BIG, many people just can't comprehend it. We are at such a turning point in our history, I marvel at being alive to witness it. It is hard for many to accept what is going on, on so many levels, it is a lot easier to be in "denial", and think... "hey this isn't so bad, it will be okay in a few years." Reality is often hard to accept, and denial is an easier way to live in the world. In the end, after we go through the DEPRESSION, turmoil and who knows what/I think America is going to be just fine! The main question for me is, how long will it take and what will we have to go through as a nation, to bring about the fundamental changes that will have to be made for us to "be just fine". To say we are witnessing "the end of an era", doesn't even come close to what is going on. Great post!

Musicmystery -> RE: What the double dip recession will look like (8/16/2010 12:04:05 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Fellow quote: We've been out of the first one for over a year, with healthy growth well over 3% and as high as 5% at times. The GDP growth numbers are not telling the real story. The deficit spending accounts like growth. Some point out US is following Japan footsteps (hiding bank losses) and it will face a decade of depressed economy. Here is an interesting quote: William Black: Well I said it from the beginning, Geithner and Summers were selected and promoted, and the same is true with Bernanke, because they are willing to be wrong and have a consistent track record of being wrong. That's useful for senior politicians but disastrous for the country. ..... It seems to me things are much more serious they seem for some. The whole economic structure and ideology needs to be corrected and there can be only a self-correction (long stagnation). Here is M. Moore observation: "To understand what's happening, we have to focus on the bottom line, just like they do. And what the bottom line says is that the entire business world has figured out how to make huge buckets of money without hiring us to work for them. I'm not sure how in the long run this benefits these companies. Maybe the same robots who make most things now are also programmed to buy them? But the upshot is this: We have to face the fact that most of America's CEOs don't want the economy to get "better." Because for them, it couldn't get better—they've got profit coming out their ears, while with 9.5 percent unemployment their entire workforce is too scared to ask for a 25 cent-an-hour raise. They'd be happy to have things stay just like they are now. Forever." Which is what I said. quote: ORIGINAL: Musicmystery quote: There can't be a double dip recession when we are still in the first one.. We've been out of the first one for over a year, with healthy growth well over 3% and as high as 5% at times. But tax cuts funnel money up, without benefits trickling down. We saw this in the 80s, and now again in 00s. Whether that's as it should be or not matters not for this point--the widening poor/middle-class vs. wealthy gap has widened quite considerably, and with incomes soaring for the top 20%, we have created two economies, with the top one responsible for the growth figures, the bottom one still stuck in high unemployment and stagnant growth due to uncertainty and tighter credit. Is this sustainable long term? Arguable, I suppose, though social unrest will come with continuing this way.

Marini -> RE: What the double dip recession will look like (8/16/2010 12:16:19 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Musicmystery quote: There can't be a double dip recession when we are still in the first one.. We've been out of the first one for over a year, with healthy growth well over 3% and as high as 5% at times. But tax cuts funnel money up, without benefits trickling down. We saw this in the 80s, and now again in 00s. Whether that's as it should be or not matters not for this point--the widening poor/middle-class vs. wealthy gap has widened quite considerably, and with incomes soaring for the top 20%, we have created two economies, with the top one responsible for the growth figures, the bottom one still stuck in high unemployment and stagnant growth due to uncertainty and tighter credit. Is this sustainable long term? Arguable, I suppose, though social unrest will come with continuing this way. Hallelujah! He has taken off the rainbow shades and he has seen the light! Heck, in a year or so, MM might even admit we are in a depression. I agree with MM!!! [;)]

Musicmystery -> RE: What the double dip recession will look like (8/16/2010 12:18:58 PM)
No, you just usually start chanting and defending before you actually read what was said. Welcome to the reader's club. Now, read it again where I talk about two economies.

wittynamehere -> RE: What the double dip recession will look like (8/16/2010 12:23:44 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: servantforuse There can't be a double dip recession when we are still in the first one.. Nicely said. The stimulus package and other artificial measures only disguised the problems for a year or so. We're still in the same depression we were in during the fall of 08. And this monster isn't going to be dealt with by printing dollars out of thin air or borrowing them from China. As Marini said above, we're witnessing something really huge. The more people who wake up and smell the coffee and start taking precautions, the better we'll be as a continent. Huge turmoil and changes are here to stay and will only be deepening for likely quite a few years yet.

Marini -> RE: What the double dip recession will look like (8/16/2010 12:47:09 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Musicmystery No, you just usually start chanting and defending before you actually read what was said. Welcome to the reader's club. Now, read it again where I talk about two economies. Oh, try to be "pleasant" MM. I highlighted what you said, that I agreed with. I DID read it twice, I took off my rainbow shades to read what you said. lol, readers club. You can be very entertaining. Peace

DCWoody -> RE: What the double dip recession will look like (8/16/2010 12:47:45 PM)
ITT - People changing the definition of the word recession to suit their personal politics.

Marini -> RE: What the double dip recession will look like (8/16/2010 12:49:41 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: wittynamehere quote: ORIGINAL: servantforuse There can't be a double dip recession when we are still in the first one.. Nicely said. The stimulus package and other artificial measures only disguised the problems for a year or so. We're still in the same depression we were in during the fall of 08. And this monster isn't going to be dealt with by printing dollars out of thin air or borrowing them from China. As Marini said above, we're witnessing something really huge. The more people who wake up and smell the coffee and start taking precautions, the better we'll be as a continent. Huge turmoil and changes are here to stay and will only be deepening for likely quite a few years yet. [sm=goodpost.gif] I think most thinking people can see it is bad, many just don't realize the ramifications that may eventually change life as we know it. After "it" goes down, I hope we at least end up with a system of government similar to Canada. I really have no idea, how we are going to end up. Thanks!

Termyn8or -> RE: What the double dip recession will look like (8/16/2010 1:14:31 PM)
FR And I thought I was a doomsayer. I already knew what was going to happen and it seems like more people are catching on. You simply can't spend more than you make forever. The article states that in the 1980s the manufacturing base had not yet been destroyed, well I'm here to tellya that it was already on it's death bed. The article also doesn't go into certain other ramifications of this mess. On an international level foreign countries are not likely to loan us much more, nor is the IMF. What this means is that we will no longer be able to prop up the percieved value of the USD. That means little or no imports. That means oil as well. That means the economy will just about grind to a halt. That means even if you have the money, goods will be very expensive and in many cases unavailable. This mess is going to make pre WW2 Germany look like Dubai. The financial conditions in Germany are what made it possible for Hitler to raise to power. He forced a recovery by keeping the profits of industry in the country. However at the time the country had industry, we do not. And even among the best of the politicians, Ron Paul wants to audit the fed, not realizing that it is too late. The damage is done. In fact at this stage of the game any great revelations from a comprehensive audit of the fed would not work in our favor as it would hasten the loss of confidence in the USD. I believe that if we had forward thinking leaders thirty years ago who would have started corrective action may have been able to initiate a recovery that we could live with. But now it is too late. Then we got this doofus in the Whitehouse who wants to tax us for not having health care. What are these people thinking ? The problem is that they are so removed from the people they are supposed to serve that they are worse than useless. When they can't borrow anymore money their only choice will be to print more. You know what happens then. I'll have to lock up my shed so noone steals my wheelbarrel. And the only double dip I see is because of the bailout. I'll say it again, they should have never done it. It's plain to see a class war for what it is. Some people will not give up fucking the system. With the prime rate extremely low, banks are raising interest rates "due to the economy". Bullshit. Didn't it occur to you that the banks may be in cahootz ? Did you not know that they are all technically branches of central bank(s) ? Look at what happens here. Prime is practically nothing and credit card interest skyrockets. They want you to mortgage your house to lessen your debt load. Then when, not if, you lose your job they get your house because you can't pay. That's real property folks. We The People are no longer going to own our country. That is their goal. Not that we really did, but they are tired of giving us the illusion. In the end it doesn't matter if there was actually a conspiracy, the result is the same. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer. And what people fail to realize is that we never recovered from the first depression. What happened then was that we were down to the last ten bucks in our pocket and we got a credit card with a twelve trillion dollar limit, which is now maxed out. And the sad part is that we could've stopped it if we knew what was going on. But we were too busy thinking about important things, like going to the movies or the bar, coaxing the favor of the local hottie, waxing our cars, the ball game. All that important shit. If we had paid attention to what really mattered we would not be in this predicament, indeed peril. Now it's coming time to pay the piper. See you in the soup line. T

servantforuse -> RE: What the double dip recession will look like (8/16/2010 1:46:43 PM)
When Bush was president I argued on here that we weren't in a recession. The numbers proved it. Now I'm saying we are still in a recession and theyr'e telling me we are out of it. Ask the 10 million or so people who are still out of work if this recession is over. They will probably not agree.

rulemylife -> RE: What the double dip recession will look like (8/16/2010 2:32:28 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: servantforuse When Bush was president I argued on here that we weren't in a recession. The numbers proved it. Now I'm saying we are still in a recession and theyr'e telling me we are out of it. Ask the 10 million or so people who are still out of work if this recession is over. They will probably not agree. If the numbers proved it then I am sure you can find the numbers to prove it now. Unemployment rates alone are not sufficient.

Musicmystery -> RE: What the double dip recession will look like (8/16/2010 2:41:13 PM)
quote: When Bush was president I argued on here that we weren't in a recession. The numbers proved it. Now I'm saying we are still in a recession and theyr'e telling me we are out of it. Ask the 10 million or so people who are still out of work if this recession is over. They will probably not agree. Recession is a simple matter of definition--two successive quarters of positive growth. We have four and counting. Similarly, the numbers proved we WERE in a recession in the Bush years--three of them, the last stretching into Obama's term. It's not a matter of feeling. It's a measure of Real GDP. As to the rest, I'm sure they wouldn't agree. It's why I explained about two economies above.

servantforuse -> RE: What the double dip recession will look like (8/16/2010 3:43:05 PM)
The dems were telling us we were in a recession 6 months before we actually were. Numbers meant nothing then. The 2008 election was coming up..

Musicmystery -> RE: What the double dip recession will look like (8/16/2010 3:45:58 PM)
You are just making this up. It's not hard. The numbers are the numbers, which is why the claim was made. Now, you can say "I think we're in recession...we'll know for sure in six months," which is accurate, you have to wait that long for the numbers to tell for sure. But once you've got them, and we do for the history you're rewriting, it's either there or it isn't.

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