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joether -> RE: Approx. 9 million US workers underemployed (9/8/2010 9:25:18 PM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: GT3000
History shows that the ebbs of unemployment and the market to extend much farther back than the last two years. In fact it is being suspected that the current recession is due impart to the screeching of the brakes put into effect by the Clinton administration to keep the economy from getting too hot. We're feeling the ripples from the late nineties, now.
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_numbers&series_id=LNS14000000
Change the time frame from 2000 to 1960 so it reads 1960 to 2010 and hit "GO."
Not wishing to dismiss the graph (I did all the way back to 1948 to 2010). But that graph has two major problems with it:
A) Doesn't account all other economic conditions in effect (debt, war, unrest, boom times, or neutral growth).
B) Unemployment rate is considered a 'trailing indicator of the times'. Meaning, it does not show what came before, to make those numbers as they are.
While, the unemployment rate is indeed an important economic concept to consider, it is by no means, the only tool to understanding the economy. The problem is, to many people consider this rate, a 'leading indicator of the times', and so, base their worries/hopes on it. And example of a 'leading indicator of the times' is the DOW. So, the better the DOW is doing, leads investors more often, to take a 'long position' in a company. These investments allow a company (traditionally), to expand themselves by buying new equipment and hiring more workers. In fact, when the economy is on the up-swing, it can take 2-3 quarters (3 month blocks of time each quarter), to have an effect on unemployment.
I would disagree with you, GT3000, on the US economy going in to a 'tail spin'. The numbers do not lend to that conclusion. Very slow growth, that with some time, and investors becoming more optimistic, could become a better grow cycle.
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