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Jobs Data Enters Twilight Zone - 9/9/2010 10:09:35 AM

Kirata

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WALL STREET BOOSTED BY UPBEAT ECONOMIC DATA (Reuters: New York)

Data showed new claims for unemployment insurance fell more than expected last week to their lowest level in two months

Missing detail (from the Trust Reuters desk of the Trust Your Government Department)...

For the latest reporting week, nine states didn’t file claims data to the Labor Department in Washington because of the federal holiday earlier this week, a Labor Department official told reporters. As a result, California and Virginia estimated their figures and the U.S. government estimated the other seven, the official said. ~Bloomberg

Well first off, it's not actually nine states. It's eight states and the District of Columbia. But hey, why quibble with a Labor Department offical. In addition to California and Virginia, Zerohedge is reporting that the six other states are Illinois, Idaho, Hawaii, Oklahoma, Michigan, and Washington.

Previous new claims number was 478k, market consensus expected at least 470k, number released today was 451k. Set your Stop-Loss orders. You can expect revised data to be released, unh... unexpectedly.

K.

< Message edited by Kirata -- 9/9/2010 10:31:38 AM >

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RE: Jobs Data Enters Twilight Zone - 9/9/2010 10:18:52 AM

brokedickdog

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The more I read the less I trust anything the government reports.

As for an "unexpected" release what I've seen is data/stats being revised 2-3 months later as a norm.

Nice find Kirata.

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RE: Jobs Data Enters Twilight Zone - 9/9/2010 10:54:33 AM

Jeffff

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And yet another example of the disconnect between the Market and reality.

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RE: Jobs Data Enters Twilight Zone - 9/9/2010 1:42:39 PM

popeye1250

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kirata

WALL STREET BOOSTED BY UPBEAT ECONOMIC DATA (Reuters: New York)

Data showed new claims for unemployment insurance fell more than expected last week to their lowest level in two months

Missing detail (from the Trust Reuters desk of the Trust Your Government Department)...

For the latest reporting week, nine states didn’t file claims data to the Labor Department in Washington because of the federal holiday earlier this week, a Labor Department official told reporters. As a result, California and Virginia estimated their figures and the U.S. government estimated the other seven, the official said. ~Bloomberg

Well first off, it's not actually nine states. It's eight states and the District of Columbia. But hey, why quibble with a Labor Department offical. In addition to California and Virginia, Zerohedge is reporting that the six other states are Illinois, Idaho, Hawaii, Oklahoma, Michigan, and Washington.

Previous new claims number was 478k, market consensus expected at least 470k, number released today was 451k. Set your Stop-Loss orders. You can expect revised data to be released, unh... unexpectedly.

K.

The U.S. has fallen two slots from #2 to #4 as a good place to do business. (See link)
Where are all these "new" jobs supposed to come from? All the people I've talked to around the country don't see *any* uptick in hiring in their areas! (N.H., Mass, Omaha, Ga., N.J.)

P.S. and where are all those "shovel ready" jobs that Obama was talking about more than a year ago?

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2010/09/loses-ground-competitiveness-report/

< Message edited by popeye1250 -- 9/9/2010 2:04:59 PM >

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RE: Jobs Data Enters Twilight Zone - 9/9/2010 7:19:23 PM

DCWoody

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This data is from the world bank, which is objective not subjective (WEF is mostly based on surveys, nations rise/fall when their govt changes to right/left even when nothing actually changes, just because people associate right with better for business)
http://www.doingbusiness.org/economyrankings/
US slipped two places there as well, and UK slipped one, from 07-08 to 08-09. (in other words, no blaming Obama :P)
Having switched to the most business friendly party early this year (not that labour should be described as business unfriendly these days), and embarking on a simplification of the tax code I reckon UK may be on the way back up, but competition's hot at the top.

Re OP: It seems you're suggesting that the estimates for the 9 stateishs are overoptomistic by an average of 3000 each?...and by some fluke of coincidence not reflecting the movement in the other 41?...and that reuters is unreliable, and zerohedge is reliable?

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RE: Jobs Data Enters Twilight Zone - 9/9/2010 8:31:08 PM

Marini

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Thank you for the interesting and informative information.

I am actually not surprised, I know the government low balls this sort of information, but the numbers that just came out did not sound "right" to me at all.

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RE: Jobs Data Enters Twilight Zone - 9/9/2010 9:12:22 PM

MrGoodlLife

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lots of those created jobs are gov't-created jobs of zero value-added, like more census employees, more paid busybodies, more people paid to saw though huge heaps of sawdust. No true wealth creation. But Wall Street is often very dumb (read The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb).

I strongly suspect that these jobs are nothing more than the theory of the broken window (read Frederic Bastiat) in action. But eventually, it will fizz down and we'll be worse than if there had not been those jobs created.

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RE: Jobs Data Enters Twilight Zone - 9/9/2010 9:13:29 PM

popeye1250

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This is one reason why I'm out of the stock market. We're in a bear market rally and those things usually have severe corrections.

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RE: Jobs Data Enters Twilight Zone - 9/10/2010 7:55:17 AM

AlwaysLisa

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Reminds me of when they came out with the statement unemployment had dropped, and then two months later admitted what we (the people) already knew. The numbers went down due to census takers hired on a temporary basis for major cities. Evident by the jump in unemployment after the temp. assignment ended.

I am out in the fields, seeking employment, I can tell you first hand it is not getting better, lol When 400 people apply for one part time position with no benefits, things are not on the upswing. I don't care what the boys from the hill say.

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RE: Jobs Data Enters Twilight Zone - 9/11/2010 8:46:09 AM

Marini

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quote:

ORIGINAL: AlwaysLisa

Reminds me of when they came out with the statement unemployment had dropped, and then two months later admitted what we (the people) already knew. The numbers went down due to census takers hired on a temporary basis for major cities. Evident by the jump in unemployment after the temp. assignment ended.

I am out in the fields, seeking employment, I can tell you first hand it is not getting better, lol When 400 people apply for one part time position with no benefits, things are not on the upswing. I don't care what the boys from the hill say.

Things are a lot worse than I thought, we need to be creating at least 200,000 jobs a month to get us out of our current situation.
http://www.inddist.com/Content.aspx?id=630

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RE: Jobs Data Enters Twilight Zone - 9/11/2010 11:09:51 AM

willbeurdaddy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250

This is one reason why I'm out of the stock market. We're in a bear market rally and those things usually have severe corrections.

We arent in any sort of rally.

We will be in a full blown bull market shortly however. Time to start dollar cost averaging back in the market or you'll miss the runup to 11/2.

< Message edited by willbeurdaddy -- 9/11/2010 11:15:22 AM >

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