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popeye1250 -> RE: New European Economic Growth Forecasts (9/14/2010 11:28:51 AM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: DCWoody
@Popey, AFAIK the recession ended in the USA late 2009. Employment lags by 1-2 years.....it should be beggining to get better around now.....and back to roughly as good/bad as things were beforehand by the end of 2011. If you have the actual date that the us recession ended.....add a year, I'll bet it'll be very close to when unemployment begins to fall.
@willbe....first, why is that link labeled BBC news?
Second....I'm afraid your source is bad. The 1.2% was the 2nd quarter growth.....NOT the 2nd quarter growth multiplied by 4. Added to the 0.3% growth in q1, it makes 1.5% so far this year.
Annualisation is NOT the norm outside the usa....you can clearly see here
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=192
That the quarters are treated individually, and not multiplied/averaged. Each quarter has it's individual growth, which is added at the end of the year to give total growth (or shrink last year) for that year.
DC, ahh, ok, that clears things up a bit, I didnt know about that "annualisation" not being used over there.
And yes, employment has always been a "lagging indicator" (in the past) but structurally things are not the same in the U.S. now with even our govt. calling high unemployment, "the new normal."
You can't "outsource" millions of good paying jobs to low wage foreign countries and have 5% unemployment. ("full employment")
First world countries (are) first world because they produce (manufacture) things.
Ultimately companies that do that are just "cannibalizing" their own markets in the long run. Too many people who are employed in the U.S. are making "subsistance level" wages. That's the lynchpin to keeping that "global economy" going.
That's why those "free-trade" deals are not really "free-trade" deals, they're "outsourcing deals" disguised as "free-trade" deals.
They're saying to the working class and middle class; "we still expect to have access to your markets and for you to buy our products that we make in foreign countries for much less money but we want (you) to do so on much less money."
That's why it's structurally differant this time.
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