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joether -> RE: NBER’s statement on recession’s end (9/20/2010 9:16:15 AM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: jlf1961
quote:
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The following is the statement from the National Bureau of Economic Research on the ending of the recession:
“The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16 months.
In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month. A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle. Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion. source
Okay, for some reason I do not believe this non-partisan organization because it sure seems that times are tough to me.
This group is taking the idea of a 'recession' in regards to a national level. Even during good Bullish times, local levels could potentially suffer from a recession. The difference is the scale of economies at work. So, some areas are still experiencing recession symptoms, because, its at a 'local', 'state' or 'regional' level. However, other 'local', 'state' or 'regions' are experiencing growth not typically found with recessions.
From what I've been reading, the recession is lessening as the months go by. In some areas of the country, it is not unexpected, to still be experiencing a recession months from now. However, parts of the country are growing. The DOW (a leading economic indicator) is on the rise. In those areas of growth, companies are hiring more people, which in turn, will grow the economy. The problem is understaind the concept of a 'recession'.
Most people do not understand what 'is' and 'isn't' a recession, even though the information is easily accessible online. When people hear 'the nation is out of a recession', but they themselves, are unemployed, its hard to take the news seriously. Its the scale of economies between the 'nation' and the 'individual'. Even during the Great Depression, some individuals were making moneying 'hand over fist', even though, on a national level, things sucked.
As much as the Republican Party declares otherwise, most economists and business people point out the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, has done alot of good for the country. Not saying, it really helped Mr. Obama's reputation out. Funny, the guy engineers economic policy on a potentially crippling situtation, and gets very little, if any 'thanks' from people, for doing it. There was a great number of hard and difficult decisions that were made, based on the numbers at the time, on how to proceed. They didn't have a crystal ball or a time-traveling DeLorean.
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