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subtoFemDommes -> RE: Solve the energy crisis (4/27/2006 9:41:51 AM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Mercnbeth
Blame instead of plan.
More politicians here than I realized - pick your party.
It's no wonder our elected officials get away with it, they are a reflection of their constituency.
When I thanked people for the "thoughtful posts" it was for the ones that made suggestions, not accusations, although I do have to wonder why exploration would get cranked up where WY's own B of LM would say it's not likely due to inferior shale.
That being said, I also absolutely agree with your statement about the citizenry getting what they deserve. What's particularly shocking to me is that there are probably a lot of successful business owners on this thread who think it's government manipulation and corporate collusion that are causing these high prices. It flies in the face of the laws of supply and demand, as although there is a record supply of petroleum, there is also a record demand for it.
While China and India and all of those third world countries (that I'm sure many of the liberals who think this is the result of evil conservative collusion wanted to progress to "our standard of living) come on line with record demands for fuel (they pay more than we do folks, and they are happy to do it) and we don't significantly reduce our consumption, partially because we can't and partially because we just don't want to - it doesn't hurt enough yet (see below).
Despite how terrible the cost seems to be, it's still not high enough to modify people's habits that much. How many people went right back out and bought low gas mileage vehicles as soon as the last bump in fuel prices was over?
Yes; the government can raise CAFE standards, and stop doing crap like letting the automakers include huge SUV's under the truck exclusion. But there were plenty of higher mileage choices available, people just decided to buy the lower ones. Those huge cars are just like the huge, energy hog houses that contractors love to build, they are far more profitable than a couple of small ones and they'll consume more energy for as long as they exist.*
Of course, then you can watch your 401k's decline as automaker profits do, and of course I'm sure that Exxon stock going down won't hurt anyone either, after all, we all know that it's just the corporate execs who hold that, not your mutual fund. See folks, this really isn't that simple? By the way, oil industry return on capital since 1970 is lower than the rest of the industrial market.
Was anyone crying for them when oil was ten dollars a barrel and they were laying off thousands? Opening a new field cost billions, building a new refinery? Six billion dollars. (I heard this morning from an industry analyst that despite the talk show hosts saying that environmental concerns have stopped refinery construction, the industry really doesn't feel they need new ones as it's cheaper to expand existing ones. Bad information and appeals to emotion are everywhere, on both sides of the political spectrum.)
People may bitch, but they aren't altering much behavior because in reality, the cost of gas still isn't eating into the cost of other things as much as they might believe, and at times over the years, has actually (relative to the factors shown in these links) gone down. They just have had it good and the cost of fuel has allowed much discretion in other areas, some of which are going to cause a lot of real pain if the ratio of these factors changes more to their detriment.
My summation of the factors you can find in the links, is that given yesterday's gas price in CA compared to the inflation related cost of gas in 1981, average mileage has increased 25% (22 vs. 27.5) and gas right now, relative to inflation, has increased 17%. (2.49 vs. 2.92). Per mile, given higher average fuel mileage, the inflation adjusted cost of driving is apparently less than it was 25 years ago.
Just listen to recent news reports about the people who've decided to commute further and further from work, obviously making some determination that the cost of doing so related to mileage was worth it, as if it was hard to predict the cost of gas would continue to rise
Gas being as cheap as it has been (and still is relative to other countries and inflation) has left people with money for other things, like deciding to move to bum fuck Egypt and drive to work from there or buying Ford Expeditions.
(That could be fodder for another completely different conversation on how nuts people are regarding the subject of "improved quality of life" they perceive from living out in the boonies. Some of them have kids who even can remember them on weekends, since many leave before they get up and come home when they're going to sleep.)
CAFE Averages over the years don't represent what cars actually get, but they do represent the difference between the mileage they met at one time and what they meet now, figuring the variations with real driving are probably similar. Most people don't get that mileage that high, but you could come close if you drove judiciously.
CAFE info and so much more..
http://www.dieselnet.com/standards/us/fe.php
Gas costs in CA and their inflation adjusted cost over the years. (Naturally, there's more available information on auto related topics and CA than any other state...)
http://www.energy.ca.gov/gasoline/statistics/gasoline_cpi_adjusted.html
Yesterday's average gas cost in CA (compiled by AAA)
http://198.6.95.31/
*A lot of those insanely huge, water and energy hog, and polluting homes only started being built when people who were taking huge profits from homes in one area moved to another and were faced with either buying a larger home, or paying the capital gains tax on the profits. So they opted for a energy hog home that the contractors were happy to build for them and started a trend of "super-sized houses" ... An example of "The law of unintended consequences" which alters situations with both harmful and beneficial effects.
Beautifully illustrated in the great PBS series "Connections" that showed how history is altered by it. http://www.shoppbs.org/sm-pbs-connections-connections-3-dvd-5pk--pi-1450814.html
http://www.palmersguide.com/jamesburke/burke_biography.html
That, and the underlying resistance to change until things get really painful or the benefits appeal to deeply rooted emotional needs, regardless of how rational they are (Like driving a 13 mpg PU that's empty 95% of the time) is the real "conspirator" in human events.
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