Gooper bias in polls

Gooper bias in polls (Full Version)

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Hippiekinkster -> Gooper bias in polls (10/13/2010 5:25:06 PM)
"For the last four years, the Pew Research Center has conducted public opinion surveys involving separate, parallel samples of both landline and mobile phones. Their design allows for a comparison between combined samples of landline and cell interviews and samples based only on landline calls. Before the 2008 election, they found that calling only landline phones introduced a "small but real" bias in favor of John McCain, an average bias of 2.3 percentage points on the margin on nine national surveys conducted between June and October of that year. This year, according to today's report, the Pew Center finds that sampling only landline phones creates an even bigger bias -- "differences of four to six points on the margin" - in favor of the Republicans. The most recent survey in the study, conducted in late August and early September, also involved comparisons based on a subgroup of "likely voters" chosen using a traditional seven question turnout scale (similar to the classic Gallup likely voter model):" Full Story I've hypothesized this for some time. Younger people tend to be early adopters of new tech, and, due to the fact that auto-dialing isn't allowed to Handis (German slang for cell phones; easier to say, I think), younger, more Progressive people are exclided from conventional polls. Rasmussen is wrong.

TheHeretic -> RE: Gooper bias in polls (10/13/2010 6:37:06 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Hippiekinkster Rasmussen is wrong. I'm guessing you didn't see this one over on Huffpo, then... 21 Days to Go and Democrats Facing a 60 - 70 Seat Loss http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steve-lombardo/21-days-to-go-and-democra_b_760085.html Voters are angry about the economy and they have two devastating perceptions of this administration: voters think it is incompetent and that it has overreached over the past two years. An even bigger problem for the White House is that voters may have already tuned the President out; virtually every possible metric used to evaluate the outcome of the midterm elections suggest a massive GOP victory. So let's just come out and say it: there is no reason to think that Republicans will do any worse than 1994 (when they picked up 54 seats) and there is plenty of data to suggest that it will, in fact, be a better year for the GOP. Our projection--based on all current available data--is that the GOP will gain between 60 and 70 House seats in November. As for the phone thing specifically, I do think the transition away from landlines would start getting you an older, more lifestyle conservative sampling. Since young people are least likely to vote, I'm not sure how bad the problem is yet.

popeye1250 -> RE: Gooper bias in polls (10/13/2010 6:50:11 PM)
I wonder if there's any way of telling if a phone picked up on landline is an extension phone to "The Mancave" and used by some loser lefty in his 30's?

Musicmystery -> RE: Gooper bias in polls (10/13/2010 6:52:19 PM)
AND there are people like me, who don't take time to answer cold call surveys.

slvemike4u -> RE: Gooper bias in polls (10/13/2010 7:00:24 PM)
as opposed to some right wing loon sitting around listening to Howie Carr ?

servantforuse -> RE: Gooper bias in polls (10/13/2010 7:13:43 PM)
Maybe that is the reason George Soros cut off funding to the DNC for the mid terms ? To many voters using cell phones. Right.

EternalHoH -> RE: Gooper bias in polls (10/13/2010 7:28:09 PM)
Don't discount Huffpo over-dramatizing the potential loss to mobilize people. After all, their sheeple audience is just as malleable as the Fox News sheeple audience.

Lucylastic -> RE: Gooper bias in polls (10/13/2010 7:31:13 PM)
its almost word for word what Pew actually posted themselves, ... there is a link to the Pew statement at the huffpo link to see:)

rulemylife -> RE: Gooper bias in polls (10/13/2010 7:42:33 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: popeye1250 I wonder if there's any way of telling if a phone picked up on landline is an extension phone to "The Mancave" and used by some loser lefty in his 30's? Another wonderfully unbiased moderate Independent post Popeye. You continue to outdo yourself.

jlf1961 -> RE: Gooper bias in polls (10/13/2010 7:50:33 PM)
rml, if popeye EVER posted a non biased moderate post on these forums I would quite probably pass out. But given his Beck talking point posts, I have no worries.

TheHeretic -> RE: Gooper bias in polls (10/13/2010 7:55:17 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: rulemylife quote: ORIGINAL: popeye1250 I wonder if there's any way of telling if a phone picked up on landline is an extension phone to "The Mancave" and used by some loser lefty in his 30's? Another wonderfully unbiased moderate Independent post Popeye. You continue to outdo yourself. Said the older still lefty loser from the mancave. Is that freezer gonna be big enough, when the time comes, RML?

rulemylife -> RE: Gooper bias in polls (10/13/2010 8:06:19 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: TheHeretic Said the older still lefty loser from the mancave. Is that freezer gonna be big enough, when the time comes, RML? That was very interesting Richie. I have no idea what it meant but I rarely understand your elusive rants. Feel free to explain. Wait. Never mind. You are just going to reply how I am not capable of understanding your stunning intellectual abilities. [sm=biggrin.gif]

Hippiekinkster -> RE: Gooper bias in polls (10/13/2010 8:06:27 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: TheHeretic quote: ORIGINAL: Hippiekinkster Rasmussen is wrong. I'm guessing you didn't see this one over on Huffpo, then... 21 Days to Go and Democrats Facing a 60 - 70 Seat Loss http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steve-lombardo/21-days-to-go-and-democra_b_760085.html Voters are angry about the economy and they have two devastating perceptions of this administration: voters think it is incompetent and that it has overreached over the past two years. An even bigger problem for the White House is that voters may have already tuned the President out; virtually every possible metric used to evaluate the outcome of the midterm elections suggest a massive GOP victory. So let's just come out and say it: there is no reason to think that Republicans will do any worse than 1994 (when they picked up 54 seats) and there is plenty of data to suggest that it will, in fact, be a better year for the GOP. Our projection--based on all current available data--is that the GOP will gain between 60 and 70 House seats in November. As for the phone thing specifically, I do think the transition away from landlines would start getting you an older, more lifestyle conservative sampling. Since young people are least likely to vote, I'm not sure how bad the problem is yet. Yes, I saw that. I regard it as unfortunate, particularly if the House goes Repub AND decides to try and dick with Healthcare. I am battling a serious foot infection, and was just switched from Vancomycin to Televancin. Worst case, I lose my foot, and become so indebted that I'll have to liquidate all my retirement savings. A single-payer system would give me a fighting chance at avoiding poverty. The Repubs don't give a shit about people like me. Frankly, you Repubs scare me. I think it doesn't bother you at all that kids live on food stamps, and old people are thrown out into the street from hospitals and nursing homes, and people lose their houses from insanely high medical bills. All you seem to care about is tax cuts, and pissing away money on national offense. You all miss the point; it's not about big government vs. small, or Fed vs. State. It's about reigning in the power of non-governmental organizations which the Founding Fathers never conceived of. You all seem content to let corporations poison the environment (look at all the teabaggers who want to 86 the EPA), put out dangerous products, discriminate against people, gamble away trillions in schemes like CDOs and credit-default swaps, and otherwise engage in criminal behavior. I'm not.

slvemike4u -> RE: Gooper bias in polls (10/13/2010 8:09:28 PM)
RML has a mancave?....I need to get me one of those.

rulemylife -> RE: Gooper bias in polls (10/13/2010 8:15:40 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Hippiekinkste Yes, I saw that. I regard it as unfortunate, particularly if the House goes Repub AND decides to try and dick with Healthcare. I am battling a serious foot infection, and was just switched from Vancomycin to Televancin. Worst case, I lose my foot, and become so indebted that I'll have to liquidate all my retirement savings. A single-payer system would give me a fighting chance at avoiding poverty. The Repubs don't give a shit about people like me. Frankly, you Repubs scare me. I think it doesn't bother you at all that kids live on food stamps, and old people are thrown out into the street from hospitals and nursing homes, and people lose their houses from insanely high medical bill. Of course they don't. This is the "pull yourself up by your own bootstraps" crowd. As long as they are happy and comfortable nothing else matters.

TheHeretic -> RE: Gooper bias in polls (10/13/2010 8:18:55 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: rulemylife You are just going to reply how I am not capable of understanding your stunning intellectual abilities. No, RML, that one was supposed to be obscure, but the ones who got it are laughing. [:D]

rulemylife -> RE: Gooper bias in polls (10/13/2010 8:23:48 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: TheHeretic quote: ORIGINAL: rulemylife You are just going to reply how I am not capable of understanding your stunning intellectual abilities. No, RML, that one was supposed to be obscure, but the ones who got it are laughing. [:D] In other words, just as I said. I'll give you credit though Richie, you are consistent. Boring but predictable.

Kirata -> RE: Gooper bias in polls (10/13/2010 9:13:33 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: TheHeretic As for the phone thing specifically, I do think the transition away from landlines would start getting you an older, more lifestyle conservative sampling. Since young people are least likely to vote, I'm not sure how bad the problem is yet. Well I have my landline forwarded to my cell phone, so I must be both old and conservative and young and unlikely to vote. [:D] K.

TheHeretic -> RE: Gooper bias in polls (10/13/2010 9:19:25 PM)
Well, those health issues certainly are a bummer, Hippie. Do they think that all the anger, all the hatred, and all the spite, you have filled yourself with is a causative factor? General attitude can have a profound impact on the immune system. Happy people live longer, you know, and it's never too late to change your outlook on life. [:D]

popeye1250 -> RE: Gooper bias in polls (10/13/2010 9:53:36 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: rulemylife quote: ORIGINAL: popeye1250 I wonder if there's any way of telling if a phone picked up on landline is an extension phone to "The Mancave" and used by some loser lefty in his 30's? Another wonderfully unbiased moderate Independent post Popeye. You continue to outdo yourself. Rule, who else is it going to be? How many Republicans in their 30's still live with their parents? People who live with their parents don't vote Republican! lol Republicans work for a living usually and need their sleep at night and can't be continually woken up by the water heater and the furnace firing up on a cold night. (Boy! I must have hit a nerve somewhere!)

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