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A Warning to Republicans and Conservatives ... - 11/12/2010 3:31:18 PM

FirmhandKY

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It’s “Otb” Time: One-Term Barack
Larry J. Sabato and Alan I. Abramowitz November 11th, 2010

Extract:

The wreckage of the Democratic Party is strewn just about everywhere. President Obama’s carefully constructed 2008 Electoral College breakthrough is now just broken, a long-ago memory of what might have been a lasting shift in partisan alignment.

We have just entered the 2012 presidential election cycle, and the news is grim for the incumbent. While at least one recent poll gives Obama the lead against Sarah Palin, he is trailing in hypothetical match-ups against former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Even worse, only 38% in another recent poll said they believed Obama “deserves re-election.”

...

There’s only one logical conclusion to be drawn: President Barack Obama is down for the count, will have an early lame duck presidency, and will be out of the White House in two years.

Almost everyone agrees.

So, why the warning?

Read the entire article, and pay attention to the "Correction" about half-way through it.

Firm

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RE: A Warning to Republicans and Conservatives ... - 11/12/2010 4:08:25 PM

rulemylife

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*

< Message edited by rulemylife -- 11/12/2010 4:15:40 PM >

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RE: A Warning to Republicans and Conservatives ... - 11/12/2010 4:11:31 PM

Raechard

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We can only hope history repeats.

Most of the Republicans you just mentioned would have died of old age by 2012 anyhow. This is why there is such a big search to find those young conservatives. Somebody to carry da torch onwards.

< Message edited by Raechard -- 11/12/2010 4:15:40 PM >

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RE: A Warning to Republicans and Conservatives ... - 11/12/2010 4:13:49 PM

FirmhandKY

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quote:

ORIGINAL: rulemylife

Firm, I never knew you had a such a flair for comedy.

A completely partisan link ends with this statement:

Despite the quibbles we’ll undoubtedly hear from predictable partisans, we are certain of our earlier declaration: Barack Obama, henceforth called OTB in our work, is a one-term president.

Way too funny!!!!!!!!

What's funny, rml, is that it is completely apparent that you have no clue to much of anything.

Larry Sabato is a well respected Democratic pollster, and you obviously failed to read the irony warning he gave, and finally, you failed to understand the warning inherent in my post and in Sabato's article, even though I pointed it out by having the word "warning" in my title.

You saw and read what you wanted to see and read, and never opened that partisan mind of yours.

Firm

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RE: A Warning to Republicans and Conservatives ... - 11/12/2010 4:16:11 PM

FirmhandKY

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quote:

ORIGINAL: rulemylife

Despite the quibbles we’ll undoubtedly hear from predictable partisans, we are certain of our earlier declaration: Barack Obama, henceforth called OTB in our work, is a one-term president.

oh, yeah ... you are the exact "predictable partisans" that he is talking about, and you have faithfully exposed yourself as such.

Talk about fucking irony ....

Firm

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RE: A Warning to Republicans and Conservatives ... - 11/12/2010 4:17:03 PM

rulemylife

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Yes, it took a second read but I deleted the post before I saw this second one of yours.

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RE: A Warning to Republicans and Conservatives ... - 11/12/2010 4:48:09 PM

Charles6682

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I wouldn't count Obama out just yet.Way too early to start predicting that.Anything can happen bewteen now and 2012...Remember,alot of the Obama voter's didn't really come out to vote in this past election.Which I feel it's their fault for not coming out.Probaly too busy playing Nintendo Wii and didn't even realize there was an election.So much for the younger vote

.... Obama now has a chance to move himself to the "middle".Bill Clinton won re-election in 1996 because he moved from the left to the middle.Same thing can easily happen with Obama.... Obama did campaign himself to be a moderate.That was one of the reason's I voted for him.I didn't vote for him because he was black.Please,I voted for him because I liked his idea's....Sadly,he has his hand's tied down to Nancy Peolsi and Harry Reid.I for one,am not sad to see Nancy Peolsi leaving..... This give's a Obama a clear slate,to be able to now become the "moderate" he claimed he was in his campaign.

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RE: A Warning to Republicans and Conservatives ... - 11/12/2010 4:51:43 PM

Raechard

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I was personally surprised anyone would vote for someone that stole their electioneering lines from Bob the builder.

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RE: A Warning to Republicans and Conservatives ... - 11/12/2010 5:05:46 PM

DarkSteven

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Thanks for posting this, Firm. It's certainly worth thinking about. The media frequently forgets any history of what has happened before.

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RE: A Warning to Republicans and Conservatives ... - 11/12/2010 5:20:07 PM

popeye1250

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quote:

ORIGINAL: rulemylife

Yes, it took a second read but I deleted the post before I saw this second one of yours.

"Bubba shot the jukebox,....last night"

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RE: A Warning to Republicans and Conservatives ... - 11/12/2010 5:31:41 PM

FirmhandKY

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quote:

ORIGINAL: rulemylife

Yes, it took a second read but I deleted the post before I saw this second one of yours.

kudos.

That took balls.

Firm

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RE: A Warning to Republicans and Conservatives ... - 11/12/2010 5:37:04 PM

FirmhandKY

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quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven

Thanks for posting this, Firm. It's certainly worth thinking about. The media frequently forgets any history of what has happened before.

Your welcome DS.

btw, never said this before, but I always look forward to your posts and thoughts.

Firm

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RE: A Warning to Republicans and Conservatives ... - 11/12/2010 7:43:37 PM

TheHeretic

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I'm not buying it, Firm. I think the '12 campaign is going to be the ugliest, most polarizing election fight of our lifetimes. President Obama could lose it for himself, and maybe he will, but if he is as smart as we are all supposed to believe, he has a good chance to be re-elected.

Of course, going to Korea to announce that we don't have a trade deal with a country that owes us as big as they do, kinda lends itself to the first hypothesis, I'll admit.

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RE: A Warning to Republicans and Conservatives ... - 11/12/2010 8:00:43 PM

willbeurdaddy

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Any speculation is kind of silly right now. The first problem is that between the business cycle and GOP control of the House the economy will improve, and BHO will get credit for it. OTOH inflation will probably have started to take off by then, exposing the errors of the stimulus package(s). The second problem is the Palin factor. She will run very strong in the primaries, but has been Quayled to the point of being unelectable in the general. The best hope is that she herself recognizes that her greatest contributions will be in fundraising and getting out the vote. Afghanistan will contribute, negatively to BHO most likely, especially with the hardcore left. And wtf knows what the status of health care reform will be by then.

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RE: A Warning to Republicans and Conservatives ... - 11/12/2010 8:53:48 PM

ThatDamnedPanda

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quote:

Barack Obama lacks the political skills necessary to adjust to the new realities of divided government.

That's the most relevant sentence in the entire article, and I agree with it completely. For all his skill as a campaigner, the man has an astonishingly poor grasp of how to to govern.

I seriously doubt he's going to learn anything in the next year and a half, because he's too arrogant and self-absorbed to even consider the possibility that he's anything less than the second coming of FDR. I expect that he'll run a good campaign in '12, but he'll have a pretty piss-poor record to defend by that time. I think most people will be fed up with him by then, and disinclined to listen to anything he has to say.

It's foolhardy to try to predict the outcome of an election 2 years in the future, because there are way too many variables between here and there. But it's safe to say that given what information is available to us at this point, it's going to be very difficult for him to win. I can't imagine any likely circumstance under which I'd vote for him again, and the number of other people who voted for him in '08 and feel the same as i do is growing every day. Bottom line is he's losing the bloc who elected him, he's got zero chance of gaining any new voters from the bloc who didn't vote for him the first time, his negatives are climbing constantly, and he has shown no indication at all that he's got the ability to reverse that trend. I don't see a path for him to win in 2012.

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RE: A Warning to Republicans and Conservatives ... - 11/12/2010 9:02:26 PM

TheHeretic

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It might not be so hard, Panda (and nice to see you!). He'll be running against a crazed extreme, racist who will throw all the sick people out of the hospitals, and take away granny's social security check.

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RE: A Warning to Republicans and Conservatives ... - 11/12/2010 9:06:58 PM

Charles6682

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Obama may win or lose depending on who is running on the Republican ticket.While I will admit Sarah Palin has certainly a huge fan base behind her,the reality is she probaly wouldn't win.Try someone like Mitt Romney,maybe even Susan Collin's or Olympia Snowe from Maine.

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RE: A Warning to Republicans and Conservatives ... - 11/12/2010 9:34:07 PM

servantforuse

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Susan Collins and Olympia Snow ? No way in hell. These two are hated by conservatives and wouldn't stand a chance.

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RE: A Warning to Republicans and Conservatives ... - 11/12/2010 9:38:13 PM

DarkSteven

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quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy

Any speculation is kind of silly right now. The first problem is that between the business cycle and GOP control of the House the economy will improve, and BHO will get credit for it. OTOH inflation will probably have started to take off by then, exposing the errors of the stimulus package(s). The second problem is the Palin factor. She will run very strong in the primaries, but has been Quayled to the point of being unelectable in the general. The best hope is that she herself recognizes that her greatest contributions will be in fundraising and getting out the vote. Afghanistan will contribute, negatively to BHO most likely, especially with the hardcore left. And wtf knows what the status of health care reform will be by then.

I agree with almost all you wrote, willbe, except for your view that Palin's objective will be to support the GOP ticket. Palin's objective is to promote herself, and she'd have no problem torpedoing the GOP ticket if it benefited her. IMO her dilemma now is that she becomes a stronger brand, more marketable, if she has a Presidential run under her belt, but she does NOT want to be subjected to all the scrutiny and gladhanding she'd have to do if a bona fide candidate. She can of course quit the race at any point, claiming truthfully that a candidate's life is not conducive to family life, but she has to do it delicately to not hurt her image.

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RE: A Warning to Republicans and Conservatives ... - 11/12/2010 9:52:06 PM

servantforuse

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More good news for the majority party. Nancy Pelosi will remain the leader of the new minority party. Rock on..

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