A word of caution about polls

A word of caution about polls (Full Version)

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Arpig -> A word of caution about polls (11/22/2010 8:46:54 PM)
For the last little while we have been doing an extensive healthcare poll in Pennsylvania and New Jersey at work. One of the questions asks the respondents to rate their healthcare plan on a scale of 1 to 10...well over 90% give a rating of 8+. The obvious conclusion to draw is that the vast majority of Americans (in those two states at least) are happy with their existing plans. The caveat? well the following other demographics from the poll are of interest: Over 80% are women Over 75% are aged 65+ Over 99% are white Over 80% are college drop-outs Clearly the poll is NOT representative of the population as a whole, and from my experience few such surveys are, as the most common respondents are elderly women, followed by elderly men as a distant 2nd place. Reading any poll results without knowing the associated demographics of the results is dangerous and entirely misleading.

Brain -> RE: A word of caution about polls (11/22/2010 9:49:27 PM)
Most of them are happy with it probably because they have not used it for anything that costs too much money. It's only when they cost the insurance company too much money and then they don't get their claims paid, that's when the problems start.

Arpig -> RE: A word of caution about polls (11/22/2010 9:51:05 PM)
Perhaps, but also keep in mind that being mostly over 65, they are mostly on Medicare

tazzygirl -> RE: A word of caution about polls (11/22/2010 10:09:10 PM)
I would expect having free insurance would make alot of people happy with their insurance. [:D]

Arpig -> RE: A word of caution about polls (11/22/2010 10:13:46 PM)
True enough Tazzy, but the real gist of my OP was that the vast majority of poll respondents are elderly women...that's who takes polls, and thus most polls are specifically NOT representative of the population as a whole.

tazzygirl -> RE: A word of caution about polls (11/22/2010 10:25:37 PM)
Didnt you also say you utilized both land lines and cell phones?

Arpig -> RE: A word of caution about polls (11/22/2010 10:36:17 PM)
Yup, random numbers...but most of the people we contact on cell phones (or at least those that mention it is a cell) decline to do the survey. BTW I did some looking into it, and apparently it is the robocalls that cannot dial cell numbers...that's how it was explained to me...of course my bosses could be lying about it.

tazzygirl -> RE: A word of caution about polls (11/22/2010 10:40:22 PM)
Thats how i took it as well... The robo calls cant use cell lines. Which is the type of calls Rasmussen reportedly uses.

Arpig -> RE: A word of caution about polls (11/22/2010 10:46:11 PM)
Well we have an automatic dialler, but since I ask the questions we are clearly not using robocalls, the two things are different.

Musicmystery -> RE: A word of caution about polls (11/23/2010 2:43:45 AM)
This is because busy, productive people like me put the phone down and go back to work when pollsters call.

thishereboi -> RE: A word of caution about polls (11/23/2010 4:31:13 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Brain Most of them are happy with it probably because they have not used it for anything that costs too much money. It's only when they cost the insurance company too much money and then they don't get their claims paid, that's when the problems start. He said 75% were aged 65 and older. And you think the reason they are happy is because they haven't had to see a doctor for anything that costs too much money? How old do you think they will be before they start needing serious medical care? How much do you think the average 65 year old pays for medications? Oh and since the majority of them are probably on medicare, I don't think your last statement works real well in this case either. Maybe you should stop and think about that the next time you get ready to spout of the latest talking points you have heard and see if they apply. As far as the OP- Yup, you can get a poll to say just about anything you want. That's the main reason I ignore polls.

thishereboi -> RE: A word of caution about polls (11/23/2010 4:35:46 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Musicmystery This is because busy, productive people like me put the phone down and go back to work when pollsters call. When my nephew was about 3, he loved to talk on the phone. So when a salesman or pollster would call, I would say just a minute and give him the phone. He would jabber away for a minute or two and then hand the phone back. It was a win-win situation. He got entertained for a minute and I didn't have to listen to the newest pitch.

pahunkboy -> RE: A word of caution about polls (11/23/2010 5:49:56 AM)
Medicare if "free". Nope. There is a monthly premium.

DarkSteven -> RE: A word of caution about polls (11/23/2010 6:41:12 AM)
Okay. The problem is that your poll is done during the day, and inadvertently targets stay at homes. The guy who put the whole thing together now needs to figure out a way to correct for that bias, but if he was dumb enough to skew the population, I don't think he'll correct for that either. I never understood how polls work so well - the samplings are so small as to make me laugh, but their results (at least for political polls) are almost always astonishingly accurate.

maybemaybenot -> RE: A word of caution about polls (11/23/2010 8:20:24 AM)
To start with Pennsylvania has one of the highest percentage of elderly populations. I believe they are ranked in the top three states and New jersey follows a little behind that. In addition, Pennsylvania has the 5th highest out migration numbers in the country and those leaving the state at the highest rates are the under 65 group. They also fall way below the National average on population growth overall, so you have little " new blood " and alot of " aging blood " Medicare is not free health care. Medicare Part A generally covers inpatient services, while Medicare B covers outpatient services after you have met the deductables. Soooo.. let's say you are extremely ill and hopitalized : the deductable for the first 60 days is around $1000, then you pay around $250 per day for the next 30 days and $500 a day for anything longer than that. < I am basing that on Massachussets Medicare rates, and those were last years rates, they may have gone up some.> There are lots of exceptions in which you would pay 100% of the services if you do not meet a certain criteria. Example : ambulance to the hospital is only covered IF transport to the hospital in any other vehicle would endanger your health. Not everyone has both Medicare A&B. You pay pay for Medicare Part B. And in either case the best payout you get is Medicare pays 80% and you pay 20% of everything. Medicare does not pay for medications. You have to purchase another supplimental plan to get prescription drug coverge. Many seniors chose to buy a Medicare Supplimental Plan, which is more like a HMO and it is quite costly. mbmbn ETA: forgot to add this is a FR, not a reply to DS.

Arpig -> RE: A word of caution about polls (11/23/2010 9:18:56 AM)
quote: Okay. The problem is that your poll is done during the day, and inadvertently targets stay at homes. Actually DS I work evenings (5-10) in a deliberate attempt to avoid contacting only stay at homes, but regardless of the survey, its older women who will answer the questions far FAR more than anybody else...getting a man in his 20s is nigh on impossible.

tazzygirl -> RE: A word of caution about polls (11/23/2010 12:06:13 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: pahunkboy Medicare if "free". Nope. There is a monthly premium. For most people Medicare Part A is free. That's because they -- or their spouses -- were paying Medicare taxes while they worked. You might have to pay for Medicare Part A if you were self-employed or didn't work during much when you were younger. If you or your spouse paid Medicare taxes for less than 10 years total, you will have to pay a monthly fee for Part A coverage. In 2009, this Medicare premium is up to $443 per month, depending on your work history. Medicare part A is free Medicare part B costs Medicare part C costs Medicare part D costs Medigap costs BUT... Medicare part A is free unless you didnt pay enough into the system.

servantforuse -> RE: A word of caution about polls (11/23/2010 1:51:51 PM)
There is no such thing as 'free' health care..

tazzygirl -> RE: A word of caution about polls (11/23/2010 2:01:09 PM)
Is there a charge for Medicare part A other than those who worked less than 10 years or were self employed?

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