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RE: Aspirin reduces Cancer 21%.... - 12/9/2010 11:58:35 PM

SleazeMerchant

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As a rule of thumb, you shouldn't really put much stock in something that has only been published once.

For asprin to really be toxic to you liver, you would need to be taking a lot more than the maxium does per 24 hours, or if you mix it with alcohol it can potentially be deadly at smaller doses. So yes, lots of asprin all at once isn't going to do you any good :) But, everyone would agree that water is good for you, but if you drink to much water at once, it can be lethal too.

As for The Lancet not being reliable, I would say that's going a bit overboard, and really relates to my first point. The scientific journals are peer review, if people are dodgey, they will be found out. And yes, it's pretty much up to the honesty of the scientist submitting the publication to be honest about what they've done when submitting their article. What's the difference between a dishonest researcher lying about doing all the right things than an honest researcher actually doing all the right things? Only that when people repeat the experiment, no one will get the same result as the person that lied, thus debunking/exposing them as a fraud and completely ruining their entire career/life. Which is why these things don't tend to happen in the academic world.

Statistics are like whores, if you play with them for long enough they'll do anything for you. But from reading just that news article, it seems to sound like there might be some merit to it. Wait until more people conduct similar trials and see what results they get.

(in reply to RapierFugue)

Post #: 21

RE: Aspirin reduces Cancer 21%.... - 12/10/2010 12:12:37 AM

CarpeComa

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quote:

ORIGINAL: SleazeMerchant
Statistics are like whores, if you play with them for long enough they'll do anything for you.

Since statistics are also the third kind of lie, I guess that makes them lying whores.

Now back to your regularly scheduled thread.

(in reply to SleazeMerchant)

Post #: 22

RE: Aspirin reduces Cancer 21%.... - 12/10/2010 12:49:25 AM

SleazeMerchant

Posts: 37
Joined: 9/28/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: CarpeComa

quote:

ORIGINAL: SleazeMerchant
Statistics are like whores, if you play with them for long enough they'll do anything for you.

Since statistics are also the third kind of lie, I guess that makes them lying whores.

Now back to your regularly scheduled thread.

I almost spat my coffee out when I read that :)

(in reply to CarpeComa)

Post #: 23

RE: Aspirin reduces Cancer 21%.... - 12/10/2010 7:23:41 AM

tazzygirl

Posts: 37833
Joined: 10/12/2007
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quote:

As for The Lancet not being reliable, I would say that's going a bit overboard, and really relates to my first point.

Perhaps actually reading the thread might be beneficial. T gave many reasons why the Lancet was errant in its acceptance of the "immunization causes autism" report.

The Lancet did their own investigation into the allegations that the report was not factual, and determined that the allegations were "unfounded". It wasnt until after the Trial and removal of Wakefield's medical license that the Lancet retracted the study.

This has caused me to read that peer-review with a magnifying glass.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/HEALTH/02/02/lancet.retraction.autism/index.html#cnnSTCText

This may help bring you up to speed on the issue and the damage it has caused.

_____________________________

Telling me to take Midol wont help your butthurt.
RIP, my demon-child 5-16-11
Duchess of Dissent 1
Dont judge me because I sin differently than you.
If you want it sugar coated, dont ask me what i think! It would violate TOS.

(in reply to SleazeMerchant)

Post #: 24

RE: Aspirin reduces Cancer 21%.... - 12/10/2010 12:20:25 PM

SleazeMerchant

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Yes, I read the thread, and I know all about the article in question, and I know it's bogus and I know what that guy did wrong in his collection of the data, and I also know why the numbers of children being diagnosed with autism has risen over the recent years.

I actually am a medical scientist. Yes, this article may have tarnished The Lancet's reputation, but I stand by my statement of saying that it is an unreliable source is going overboard, EVERYTHING you read in a scientific journal should be viewed skepticly, it's the whole reason why these journals exist and why people repeat studies that have already been done.

You don't seem to understand the difference between someone commiting fraud and someone published an aritcle that wasn't up to the right standard for publication. The scientist that would willingly commit fraud would know enough to submit and only keep record of data that would be acceptable for the scientific process, so if The Lancet did actually do an investigation, it probably would appear that the allegations were unfounded. I know full well the damage that the paper caused, but most of the damage came from peoples misunderstanding of science and media hype than from that actual paper.

< Message edited by SleazeMerchant -- 12/10/2010 12:21:07 PM >

(in reply to tazzygirl)

Post #: 25

RE: Aspirin reduces Cancer 21%.... - 12/10/2010 4:27:05 PM

Termyn8or

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"EVERYTHING you read in a scientific journal should be viewed skepticly"

Absolutely ! (I rarely use the exclamation point)

It's not just the "purity" of the methodology, any study must be repeatable with different subjects. Disparities are sometimes found due to demographics, lineage, diet and other unnamed factors. Even the three I just mentioned are huge, but that list is not exhaustive.

Information must be sifted. Does this prove or disprove that ? Are the results inconclusive, or only conclusive one way or the other but not both ?

And for whom ? Interrelation of the three obvious variables adds a whole new dimension to the thing.

T

(in reply to SleazeMerchant)

Post #: 26

RE: Aspirin reduces Cancer 21%.... - 12/10/2010 6:29:53 PM

SleazeMerchant

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Termyn8or

Information must be sifted. Does this prove or disprove that ? Are the results inconclusive, or only conclusive one way or the other but not both ?

Indeed, you've got the right idea :) But you can never prove anything in science, you can only disprove something, I know it's kind of nit picking, but I think it's a rather important point that a lot of people misunderstand.

(in reply to Termyn8or)

Post #: 27

RE: Aspirin reduces Cancer 21%.... - 12/10/2010 6:37:14 PM

RapierFugue

Posts: 4740
Joined: 3/16/2006
From: London, England
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quote:

ORIGINAL: SleazeMerchant

quote:

ORIGINAL: Termyn8or

Information must be sifted. Does this prove or disprove that ? Are the results inconclusive, or only conclusive one way or the other but not both ?

Indeed, you've got the right idea :) But you can never prove anything in science, you can only disprove something, I know it's kind of nit picking, but I think it's a rather important point that a lot of people misunderstand.

Agree with most of what's been written, but would add; in clinical terms, there is only now. In other words, every study is only as good as the most current data. And sometimes not even that good

To quote my favourite surgeon; "Studies are like buses ... you wait ages for one, then 4 of the bloody things turn up at once"

It's an interesting paper, but currently nothing more, and a long way from any meaningful clinical advice.

(in reply to SleazeMerchant)

Post #: 28

RE: Aspirin reduces Cancer 21%.... - 12/10/2010 9:30:33 PM

tazzygirl

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quote:

It's an interesting paper, but currently nothing more, and a long way from any meaningful clinical advice.

Sadly what happens is the public views it as scientific fact and end up killing themselves.

_____________________________

Telling me to take Midol wont help your butthurt.
RIP, my demon-child 5-16-11
Duchess of Dissent 1
Dont judge me because I sin differently than you.
If you want it sugar coated, dont ask me what i think! It would violate TOS.

(in reply to RapierFugue)

Post #: 29

RE: Aspirin reduces Cancer 21%.... - 12/10/2010 9:58:48 PM

Termyn8or

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"you can only disprove something"

I beg to differ because disproof by it's nature requires proof.

You can prove that humans need oxygen to survive. It is as simple as depriving one of it and observing the results. However that does not prove that a human will survive if supplied with sufficient oxygen. Applying this type of reasoning is lacking, and that is what leads to many misconclusions.

That is what has lead humanity astray, post hoc ergo propter hoc has been recognized for a long time. If the masses have trouble assimilating and using empirical fact effectively, what do you think a degree is, a ticket on a spaceship ? All are fallible, and are fallible in groups.

I've gone into valid subjects here and got shot down like an Arab missile in New Jersey. Some of it may have been deserved but you just don't know yet just all the shit I do not believe.

When it comes to public health I believe that things must be considered in a different light. We know too much interference with the immune system weakens it. The thimerosal issue, I gave weight to one side. All these people lived without this, they are selling it. It may have benefits but any knucklehead knows you don't let your kids eat mercury or inject it into their blood, most sensible people wouldn't even let them play with it. So I see a valid reason to render judgement in favor of precaution in such a matter rather than profit.

If that is an error I will be happy to get on the next spaceship.

Now they want to sell more aspirin. To be unbiased in this matter would either be foolish IMO, or, ironically, biased.

Sorry for the hyperbolic attitude, but I really am not happy with the state of the human race. I am not saying anything about me or anyone in particular, but I think we should be alot more advanced by now.

T
T

(in reply to SleazeMerchant)

Post #: 30

RE: Aspirin reduces Cancer 21%.... - 12/11/2010 2:36:01 AM

SleazeMerchant

Posts: 37
Joined: 9/28/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Termyn8or

"you can only disprove something"

I beg to differ because disproof by it's nature requires proof.

You can prove that humans need oxygen to survive. It is as simple as depriving one of it and observing the results. However that does not prove that a human will survive if supplied with sufficient oxygen. Applying this type of reasoning is lacking, and that is what leads to many misconclusions.

That is what has lead humanity astray, post hoc ergo propter hoc has been recognized for a long time. If the masses have trouble assimilating and using empirical fact effectively, what do you think a degree is, a ticket on a spaceship ? All are fallible, and are fallible in groups.

I've gone into valid subjects here and got shot down like an Arab missile in New Jersey. Some of it may have been deserved but you just don't know yet just all the shit I do not believe.

When it comes to public health I believe that things must be considered in a different light. We know too much interference with the immune system weakens it. The thimerosal issue, I gave weight to one side. All these people lived without this, they are selling it. It may have benefits but any knucklehead knows you don't let your kids eat mercury or inject it into their blood, most sensible people wouldn't even let them play with it. So I see a valid reason to render judgement in favor of precaution in such a matter rather than profit.

If that is an error I will be happy to get on the next spaceship.

Now they want to sell more aspirin. To be unbiased in this matter would either be foolish IMO, or, ironically, biased.

Sorry for the hyperbolic attitude, but I really am not happy with the state of the human race. I am not saying anything about me or anyone in particular, but I think we should be alot more advanced by now.

T
T

Woops, accidently clicked ok without writing anything back! haha

But, no, you're wrong. Humans require oxygen to survive is not 'proven', and that doesn't mean that it's not a valid assumption to make. It would have been valid to say DNA could not use arsenic in it's composition several weeks ago, because there was no reason to think that it would be otherwise, but that does not mean that it's not possible, but without evidence, you would have been laughed at probably. Evidence is not proof.

Humans require oxygen to live; I would bet all my worldy possessions on it, but it's not proven. Just like dropping a ball and having it fall to the ground does not prove gravity, it just doesn't disprove it (the theory or model that is). When you come up with a theory or a model, you can't be certain that what you are proposing is correct, you can be certain that it is incorrect though, because when you conduct an experiment that differs from the predicted outcome of the model/theory then it cannot be the case.

No matter how overwhelming the evidence is, it is never proven. Take gravity for example. You drop a ball, and it falls towards the ground. Drop it again it falls to the ground. Do this 100, 1000, 1,000,000,000 times, same thing for any object. It always falls to the ground. Therefore I have proven that all things tend to fall towards the center of the earth, have I not? Are you sure that that is what is happening here? What happens to that 'proof' when you see something that is inconsistant with the model? Proof really inferes certainy. The only time things are even proven are in math. 2 + 2 = 4 no matter how you choose to look at it.

Just because something is not proven doesn't mean that you can't rely on it though, don't get me wrong, and the same thing goes for correlation vs. causation. Does smoking cause cancer? No, it does not. There are people out there that have been heavy smokers their whole life and never developed any cancer that could be attributite to smoking. Is there a correlation between smoking and the incidence of lung cancer? Lol I dont even really need to answer do I? But yes. There is an incredibly high correlation between people that smoke and the incidence of lung cancer, seemly proportional to the amount that they smoke.

Maybe you get my point a bit better now?

< Message edited by SleazeMerchant -- 12/11/2010 3:02:48 AM >

(in reply to Termyn8or)

Post #: 31

RE: Aspirin reduces Cancer 21%.... - 12/11/2010 4:30:36 AM

Termyn8or

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"But, no, you're wrong. Humans require oxygen to survive is not 'proven'"

Again, we are not in facts but conclusions. You have never been suffocated nor strangled to death. Why does it work ? It works time after time, thus is a repeatable experiment. You are a scientist. That in and of itself gives you no more credibility with me than God if he/she exists. Nor with someone living under a bridge. When I was homeless I longed for a bridge, but the best I could do was a bush.

Maybe everyone needs time like that, time to think. No books, no input at all. Simple introspection of all that is believed. And a good background as well. I don't mean rich, we were not.

College level textbooks delivered to an eleven year old. Encyclopedias and technically specific dictionaries as well. If you want your kids to rule the world they are interested in those things, not the latest video gasme. I hope you don't want too much opinion out of me, because it'll take some time. Entertainment has become paramount in the average human life. Knowledge of the game is more important than knowledge of the most important game - life. If I had kids the first thing I would do is to buy a farm. Get them the hell away from this shit, and let's just see what happens. If I were twenty years younger I would do it.

Whatever it is, school does not get it done. I submit this - no matter how intelligent you are, school did not do it. Facts and figures are knowledge, but intelligence is a different thing. For that I strive. Ironically to get the real intelligence sometimes facts have to be ignored. That is correct, even real facts. Facts are brought into evidence that have no bearing on the issue and seemingly prove the case. This is one of the most prevalent errors Man makes.

There are so many facts these days that you actually can make a silk purse out of a sow's ear, but what does that prove ? Are you going to eat a sow's ear for dinner ? You would if it came in the form of a hotdog, but try eating a silk purse.

Maybe I'm wrong. The world belongs to the younger, and I am not. The people who strive to get the letters after their name. Maybe they are right and I am wrong, the thought has crossed my mind. But it passes quickly. In my view I simply cannot be wrong all the time and they cannot be right all the time. But I am not imposing my judgement on other people. I am not asking people to take pills to live, which seem to kill them sometimes. Oops ? This bunch of shit did not exist a couple of hundred years ago. If they needed this garbage to survive they would have died. That means they would have no offspring, that would be us.

Thus my only example of empirical data without a hint of doubleblindedness.

T

(in reply to SleazeMerchant)

Post #: 32

RE: Aspirin reduces Cancer 21%.... - 12/11/2010 4:42:56 AM

RapierFugue

Posts: 4740
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From: London, England
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quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

quote:

It's an interesting paper, but currently nothing more, and a long way from any meaningful clinical advice.

Sadly what happens is the public views it as scientific fact and end up killing themselves.

I get a near real-time feed from the NHS that gives me details of which clinical research topics are being presented in which newspapers, and the studies that link to them, together with a factual breakdown of the gaps between truth and reality.

The press, even the "quality" broadsheets, are absolutely hopeless when it comes to presenting facts as facts; they're forever selecting tiny sections or one minor conclusion and blowing it out of all proportion (and the tabloids are even worse!), so you end up with the oft-stated comment that the Daily Mail seems to believe that absolutely everything causes cancer. I've had conversations with some journos that indicate that they're more than aware that they're printing bullshit, or at least something with a link so tenuous that it's basically meaningless, but they seem to think that "it's what the public want to hear", so they think it sells papers. Part of the problem (I think) is that many journos, like many members of the public, don't really understand statistics. They extract a headline percentage which, out of context, is nearly meaningless.

This particular study is more interesting than most, but it's way, way off any clinical advice as yet. I would think a larger, more targeted study will follow ASAP though.

(in reply to tazzygirl)

Post #: 33

RE: Aspirin reduces Cancer 21%.... - 12/11/2010 4:50:41 AM

Termyn8or

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Nope;

Sun shines, people forget.

T

(in reply to RapierFugue)

Post #: 34

RE: Aspirin reduces Cancer 21%.... - 12/11/2010 4:57:46 AM

RapierFugue

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From: London, England
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Termyn8or

Nope;

Sun shines, people forget.

If only that were true

(in reply to Termyn8or)

Post #: 35

RE: Aspirin reduces Cancer 21%.... - 12/11/2010 6:39:31 AM

DomKen

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Termyn8or

"So did the paper on immunizations."

That wasn't my source. If you remember it was an MD witrh several children. Not all were autistic, and the ones that were had little or no mercury in hair samples, while their normal siblings did. His conclusion was that the autistic ones were unable to excete the mercury, while the normal ones could. That is not my conclusion so I don't take it as gospel, but it makes sense. What's more these were siblings, therefore they had similar environments. The only thing better would be a double blind study using identical twins, and that is not likely to happen.

Am I biased towards evidence indicating that one should take less drugs against what says take more drugs ? You bet your pudenda I am.

Source matters not almost. Does it make sense ? I am also not swallowing the one by Linus Pauling yet either. I need more answers first. Ironically they don't have to prove things beyond a shadow of a doubt, but it has to make sense. I have little taste for miracle breakthroughs either.

T

You making shit up as usual. You spout the anti vax BS without even knowing where it actually comes from.

(in reply to Termyn8or)

Post #: 36

RE: Aspirin reduces Cancer 21%.... - 12/11/2010 9:26:06 AM

SleazeMerchant

Posts: 37
Joined: 9/28/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Termyn8or

"But, no, you're wrong. Humans require oxygen to survive is not 'proven'"

Again, we are not in facts but conclusions. You have never been suffocated nor strangled to death. Why does it work ? It works time after time, thus is a repeatable experiment. You are a scientist. That in and of itself gives you no more credibility with me than God if he/she exists. Nor with someone living under a bridge. When I was homeless I longed for a bridge, but the best I could do was a bush.

You're right, I have never been suffocated or strangled, but there are people that have been, and some are still alive because they were resuscitated, so they were without oxygen, pretty much, for a short peroid of time. Oxygen really isn't neccessary for humans to survive, the molecule ATP is, which is how the body stores its energy.

There are two pathways for making ATP, one being the aerobic pathway that uses one oxygen molecule, and the other is the anaerobic pathway that does not involve oxygen. The kicker is that the aerobic pathway that uses O2 yeilds 36 molecules of ATP, but the aerobic pathway yeilds 2 molecules.

So really, if you could sort out a way to produce more ATP you wouldn't need oxygen to survive. What happens when we find a person that doesn't need to breath oxygen? Sure I would bet everthing I have against it, but you can't say that it isnt going to happen or that there isn't already a person that doesn't need oxygen to survive. After all, you havent gone around and strangled everyone to test this have you? Things are not proven in science because you can do an experiment, oh this proves that xyz is true, and then someone walks into your office the next day and shows that you were wrong, so was it ACTUALLY proven then? No it wasn't, and you dont know what we are going to discover tomorrow, eg. arsenic in DNA.

(in reply to Termyn8or)

Post #: 37

RE: Aspirin reduces Cancer 21%.... - 12/11/2010 11:01:53 AM

Termyn8or

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"You making shit up as usual"

I have been nice with you. Don't start with me or I'll serve you your own liver without onions. I said my source, tough shit, and I did not make it up. Just because you didn't read something it is made up ? Pulease, I don't care how smart you are, you are not omnipotent, despite the fact that you seem to make that claim. I do not make that claim.

I reveal why I believe certain things, if you choose to toss it all in the trash that is your business. No problem.

Don't ask for it. Accusing someone of making shit up is tantamount to accusing them of lying. For one I have no reason to do so. Secondly, if I were to reciprocate I could accuse you of lying about every last thing you ever wrote except that which can be verified by the sources YOU believe. That means your own eyewitness accounts. Then I could accuse you of having a reason to lie or having a vested interest in propogating the status quo.

Choose your words more carefully, it goes a long way Man. Really.

T

(in reply to DomKen)

Post #: 38

RE: Aspirin reduces Cancer 21%.... - 12/11/2010 11:53:02 AM

Termyn8or

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"You're right, I have never been suffocated or strangled"

This is getting down to hairsplitting. So you haven't been deprived of enough oxygen enriched blood for your body to fail to survive. (and you left out the letters "an" in your post, and you are suspected or word inventing as well)

I don't mind a bit of hairsplitting, comes with the territory. But now is this thread about the effects of aspirin or is it about what we believe vs. what we don't ? Or is that applicable to any thread ?

We could start a thread about that subject specifically, and actually I have tried. Some people will believe that the government is going to tax emails, others won't believe another's eyewitness accounts unless they submit 27 8 X 10 color glossy photographs to the NSA for analysis. The latter group seems to miss the point that the NSA will lie just like anyone - when they have a reason.

Am I 100% honest ? Hell no. But if I have no vested interest in propogating a lie. I simply don't do it. How would I benefit ? Especially here. The old prove/disprove comes into play. We got one who says I make shit up, I have no reason to do that. In fact, me thinkst some do protest too much. Who might have an interest in maintaining the status quo ? Not me.

But then to accuse me of prevarication would be to imply that I have an agenda which includes changing the status quo. I'll admit this is true, as the status quo sucks. However in my mind to actually lie would be counterproductive. While you can't prove some things I assert, you will find a similar difficulty in disproving same. Does that mean you should believe it ? Not really. But to dismiss it offhandedly isn't going far either.

For example we got the John Ellis water thing. They claim they can rearrainge the angle of the hydrogen bond in the water molecule. OK fine. We already know that compounds can exist in different configurations. But whether it is true that subjecting the water to a super high intensity light source makes it better for human consumption is a far cry. They even claim that their process imitates the natural process by which water is delivered on this planet, and light is involved. That fact is not all that important. I do not believe their conclusions.

I write things when I believe they are true, that is mostly when I find the author's conclusions to be at least plausible. If not you'll not hear a peep out of me, except in the case of presenting a negative example, like John Ellis.

Part of my intellect is choice. This is a facet of logic not visited frequently. For example you decide to catch a buzz. You stay home and crank the music, who cares if the cops come. Or you could decide to stagger out and drive with your feet. So there is a layer of logic underneath what is not seemingly occulted today.

The Lancet report which I have never read about thimerosal suggested that we are putting too much unnatural shit in our bodies. So did my source. The study which prompted this thread seems to indicate that we should ingest more unnatural shit into our bodies. Sorry, but I am biased on the side of history. Based on the current hype, you can avoid egg yolks and butter, but others avoid hydrogenated oils and carbs. Our relative death rates have yet to be tabulated.

Soon, expect a mail from me with a very specific question. I have asked it of others but never got a real answer. You might be able to answer it, but the question does require a prelude. One day I might put it out in public but I would like to have an answer that is valid. A medical scientist ? Yup, you are next. You may or may not have an answer.

At this point in time if we want to discuss the validity of various evidence we should probably get a thread.

T

(in reply to SleazeMerchant)

Post #: 39

RE: Aspirin reduces Cancer 21%.... - 12/11/2010 12:51:15 PM

SleazeMerchant

Posts: 37
Joined: 9/28/2009
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Sure thing

(in reply to Termyn8or)

Post #: 40

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