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RE: Egypt just used its Internet kill switch - 1/28/2011 7:37:56 PM   
TheHeretic


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Joined: 3/25/2007
From: California, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250
Who do we believe?



The guy willing to throw a rock at other guys with guns. I'm just too much of an optimist when it comes to these things. Too liberal, even. I want to believe the people are going to shed the chains, and be freed from the oppression, corruption, and want, their current govt has provided. VIVA LA REVOLUTION!

It's hard for me to remember that it's the after-revolution where it all goes to hell. The critical mass of popular revolt mostly takes a turn for the hideous, like France, or is hijacked into a new totalitarianism like Russia or Iran. The US is an exception, not the rule, and we had to go back and rewrite the government, and then have the British burn our new capitol before it settled out.

Dammit, I want this to go well, but if we get a domino effect, it mostly won't.

_____________________________

If you lose one sense, your other senses are enhanced.
That's why people with no sense of humor have such an inflated sense of self-importance.


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RE: Egypt just used its Internet kill switch - 1/28/2011 8:19:16 PM   
tweakabelle


Posts: 7522
Joined: 10/16/2007
From: Sydney Australia
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: TheHeretic


quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250
Who do we believe?



The guy willing to throw a rock at other guys with guns. I'm just too much of an optimist when it comes to these things. Too liberal, even. I want to believe the people are going to shed the chains, and be freed from the oppression, corruption, and want, their current govt has provided. VIVA LA REVOLUTION!

It's hard for me to remember that it's the after-revolution where it all goes to hell. The critical mass of popular revolt mostly takes a turn for the hideous, like France, or is hijacked into a new totalitarianism like Russia or Iran. The US is an exception, not the rule, and we had to go back and rewrite the government, and then have the British burn our new capitol before it settled out.

Dammit, I want this to go well, but if we get a domino effect, it mostly won't.



Your pessimism about the number of successful revolutions is well founded.

Things can look a little brighter if you regard anti-colonial struggles as revolutions. Anti-colonial revolutions can and do degenerate into civil wars or dictatorship. While I haven't done the numbers, my impression is that getting rid of foreign domination is, on the whole, more a case of two steps forward and one step back than the other way around.

In the case of the current Middle Eastern turmoil, let's be optimistic. Generally those who led the fight get first chance at screwing things up post-revolution.



Edited for extra liberty fraternity and equality

< Message edited by tweakabelle -- 1/28/2011 8:22:39 PM >

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RE: Egypt just used its Internet kill switch - 1/28/2011 8:28:54 PM   
ThatDamnedPanda


Posts: 6060
Joined: 1/26/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: TheHeretic



The guy willing to throw a rock at other guys with guns. I'm just too much of an optimist when it comes to these things. Too liberal, even. I want to believe the people are going to shed the chains, and be freed from the oppression, corruption, and want, their current govt has provided. VIVA LA REVOLUTION!

It's hard for me to remember that it's the after-revolution where it all goes to hell. The critical mass of popular revolt mostly takes a turn for the hideous, like France, or is hijacked into a new totalitarianism like Russia or Iran. The US is an exception, not the rule, and we had to go back and rewrite the government, and then have the British burn our new capitol before it settled out.

Dammit, I want this to go well, but if we get a domino effect, it mostly won't.


It depends on what time frame in which you choose to evaluate it. It's certainly true that the next few decades may be pretty ugly in the Mid East, while things sort themselves out, but the world will just have to be patient. It may be several generations before we know where the pieces will settle.

Remember what Zhou Enlai said in about 1973 or so, when a Western reporter asked him to evaluate the French Revolution? "Too soon to tell."

I'm not saying we need to wait 200 years, but the man's point stands. It took centuries for the Middle East to get this fucked, and you and I will not live long enough to see what it will look like when it finally settles into a state of unfucked.


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RE: Egypt just used its Internet kill switch - 1/28/2011 8:33:19 PM   
pahunkboy


Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline 		It looked like some of the roads were paved over there.

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Profile   Post #: 44
RE: Egypt just used its Internet kill switch - 1/28/2011 8:56:26 PM   
ThatDamnedPanda


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Joined: 1/26/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: pahunkboy

It looked like some of the roads were paved over there.


Yeah, but not plowed. Fucking savages!


_____________________________

Panda, panda, burning bright
In the forest of the night
What immortal hand or eye
Made you all black and white and roly-poly like that?


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Profile   Post #: 45
RE: Egypt just used its Internet kill switch - 1/28/2011 9:17:08 PM   
TheHeretic


Posts: 19100
Joined: 3/25/2007
From: California, USA
Status: offline 		I know, Panda, I know. It would just be a hell of a lot easier if the oil ran out first.

_____________________________

If you lose one sense, your other senses are enhanced.
That's why people with no sense of humor have such an inflated sense of self-importance.


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Profile   Post #: 46
RE: Egypt just used its Internet kill switch - 1/28/2011 9:28:03 PM   
TheHeretic


Posts: 19100
Joined: 3/25/2007
From: California, USA
Status: offline 		Now here is an intriguing voice on the subject.

Christian Science Monitor

quote:

Will democratic movements in Tunisia and Egypt heed lessons of Iran's revolution?
An exiled former president of Iran explains that an open future for the Arab world could mean the flowering of democracy – or resurgent dictatorship. To keep a new strongman from taking over, certain conditions must be met.


_____________________________

If you lose one sense, your other senses are enhanced.
That's why people with no sense of humor have such an inflated sense of self-importance.


(in reply to pahunkboy)
Profile   Post #: 47
RE: Egypt just used its Internet kill switch - 1/29/2011 7:26:48 AM   
DarkSteven


Posts: 28072
Joined: 5/2/2008
Status: offline 		WTF?  Mubarak just let his entire cabinet go.

The protesters are specifically screaming out against him, and he releases his cabinet?  Did the dude actually think that that would placate the protesters?  He's gonna have a heckuva time keeping his job without the cabinet to coordinate things.  What a doofus.


_____________________________

"You women....

The small-breasted ones want larger breasts. The large-breasted ones want smaller ones. The straight-haired ones curl their hair, and the curly-haired ones straighten theirs...

Quit fretting. We men love you."

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RE: Egypt just used its Internet kill switch - 1/29/2011 8:57:16 AM   
Aneirin


Posts: 6121
Joined: 3/18/2006
From: Tamaris
Status: offline 		Mubarak plain and simple does not want to give up power, thirty years of good living, well, he is kind of used to it. Also it has been suggested he wanted to shoe horn his son into the top job to keep in with the money. Obama has give him shit though and talk of the one billion the US gives to Egypt getting stopped. Mubarak has asked for his cabinet's resignation, but what will he replace them with, yet more of his cronies, the same faces and the corruption as usual.

But in Egypt, this has been brewing for a while, it just took the Tunisians to spark it off and I am now hearing Israel is getting worried because of this Arab youth uprising.

< Message edited by Aneirin -- 1/29/2011 8:59:33 AM >

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Conservatism is distrust of people tempered by fear - William Gladstone

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Profile   Post #: 49
RE: Egypt just used its Internet kill switch - 1/29/2011 9:02:52 AM   
mnottertail


Posts: 60698
Joined: 11/3/2004
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven

WTF?  Mubarak just let his entire cabinet go.

The protesters are specifically screaming out against him, and he releases his cabinet?  Did the dude actually think that that would placate the protesters?  He's gonna have a heckuva time keeping his job without the cabinet to coordinate things.  What a doofus.




He is blaming the bad things on these guys, will reform the government.

If he starts taking any blame or making concessions, he is headed for the rhubarb for a fact, ala Gorbachev.

I am not thinking that is gonna work long run, but it gives him time to get himself a good exit strategy. 

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RE: Egypt just used its Internet kill switch - 1/29/2011 9:05:28 AM   
DarkSteven


Posts: 28072
Joined: 5/2/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Aneirin

I am now hearing Israel is getting worried because of this Arab youth uprising.


I'm being optimistic here on a few grounds.

1. The Arab youth AFAIK is more hip, more sophisticated, and more comfortable with Western influences than the older generation.
2. The Arab countries were badly run, for the benefit of the ruling elite.  They tried to focus attention away from their internal issues by pointing to and blaming Israel.
3. The radical Islamists had a comfortable relationship with the ruling elites in which the radicals were permitted to foment hatred as long as they didn't destabilize the country.  That's out the window.  It may return but the new rulers are not beholden to the radicals.

Basically, the old reasons for fearing the radicals are gone, and I'm hoping that new ones don't surface.

A crazy idea - if Israel began to assist with the new state (if politically possible), that would be wonderful.


_____________________________

"You women....

The small-breasted ones want larger breasts. The large-breasted ones want smaller ones. The straight-haired ones curl their hair, and the curly-haired ones straighten theirs...

Quit fretting. We men love you."

(in reply to Aneirin)
Profile   Post #: 51
RE: Egypt just used its Internet kill switch - 1/29/2011 9:32:24 AM   
PeonForHer


Posts: 19612
Joined: 9/27/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven

A crazy idea - if Israel began to assist with the new state (if politically possible), that would be wonderful.



Wow! What a thought!


< Message edited by PeonForHer -- 1/29/2011 9:33:13 AM >

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RE: Egypt just used its Internet kill switch - 1/29/2011 9:50:02 AM   
pahunkboy


Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline 		I am not sure that these folks are so-   honorable.    23 Christians slaughtered in church a few weeks back there. 

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Profile   Post #: 53
RE: Egypt just used its Internet kill switch - 1/29/2011 9:54:36 AM   
popeye1250


Posts: 18104
Joined: 1/27/2006
From: New Hampshire
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: TheHeretic


quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250
Who do we believe?



The guy willing to throw a rock at other guys with guns. I'm just too much of an optimist when it comes to these things. Too liberal, even. I want to believe the people are going to shed the chains, and be freed from the oppression, corruption, and want, their current govt has provided. VIVA LA REVOLUTION!

It's hard for me to remember that it's the after-revolution where it all goes to hell. The critical mass of popular revolt mostly takes a turn for the hideous, like France, or is hijacked into a new totalitarianism like Russia or Iran. The US is an exception, not the rule, and we had to go back and rewrite the government, and then have the British burn our new capitol before it settled out.

Dammit, I want this to go well, but if we get a domino effect, it mostly won't.



Then why is Obama and Jumpin' Joe Biden backing the bad guys? They're the ones backing a dictator.
And why has our govt. been giving them *our money* for 30 years?
Things are really starting to escalate there, people being shot for violating a curfew, riots, mummys in museums being destroyed etc.
And there is *great concern* because of the Suez cannal. Whatever group can sabotage it and close it without too much trouble causing oil tankers to have to divert their trips by ten thousand miles or thereabouts around the horn of Africa.

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RE: Egypt just used its Internet kill switch - 1/29/2011 9:56:06 AM   
pahunkboy


Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline 		The riots have EVERYTHING to do with food costs.

Egypt is crucial to oil flow.   Best to gas up -  this week.

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RE: Egypt just used its Internet kill switch - 1/29/2011 10:07:32 AM   
TheHeretic


Posts: 19100
Joined: 3/25/2007
From: California, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: pahunkboy

I am not sure that these folks are so-   honorable.    23 Christians slaughtered in church a few weeks back there. 



Followed by thousands of Muslims standing watch as human shields at the next big holiday.

_____________________________

If you lose one sense, your other senses are enhanced.
That's why people with no sense of humor have such an inflated sense of self-importance.


(in reply to pahunkboy)
Profile   Post #: 56
RE: Egypt just used its Internet kill switch - 1/29/2011 10:22:52 AM   
popeye1250


Posts: 18104
Joined: 1/27/2006
From: New Hampshire
Status: offline 		The front page of Yahoo says there's "Caos in Cairo".
I don't think this is going to end anytime soon.

_____________________________

"But Your Honor, this is not a Jury of my Peers, these people are all decent, honest, law-abiding citizens!"

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Profile   Post #: 57
RE: Egypt just used its Internet kill switch - 1/29/2011 10:28:56 AM   
Termyn8or


Posts: 18681
Joined: 11/12/2005
Status: offline 		"The Arab countries were badly run, for the benefit of the ruling elite."

Remove the word Arab, and change "were" to "are" and you have a truism that can't be beat !

T^T

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Profile   Post #: 58
RE: Egypt just used its Internet kill switch - 1/29/2011 10:52:43 AM   
pahunkboy


Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: TheHeretic


quote:

ORIGINAL: pahunkboy

I am not sure that these folks are so-   honorable.    23 Christians slaughtered in church a few weeks back there. 



Followed by thousands of Muslims standing watch as human shields at the next big holiday.


Do you have a link?

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Profile   Post #: 59
RE: Egypt just used its Internet kill switch - 1/29/2011 11:22:11 AM   
pahunkboy


Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline 		Looters destroy mummies in Egyptian Museum: official

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