RE: Egypt echoes across region: Iran, Bahrain, Yemen

RE: Egypt echoes across region: Iran, Bahrain, Yemen (Full Version)

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eihwaz -> RE: Egypt echoes across region: Iran, Bahrain, Yemen (2/15/2011 7:38:07 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Moonhead The same thing as they always do: oust the democratically elected leader and install a despot who'll do as he's told. Do you believe that such an action is politically (internationally or domestically) viable now? A lot has changed in both the world and the United States since the Dulles boys and their ilk. The CIA is legally more constrained and there is an awareness learned from past mistakes that such interventions eventually cause bigger problems. [Edited for typos.]

mnottertail -> RE: Egypt echoes across region: Iran, Bahrain, Yemen (2/15/2011 7:39:38 AM)
Exactly why we waltzed into Iraq, with that fresh in our mind. No, there are those who never learn.

rulemylife -> RE: Egypt echoes across region: Iran, Bahrain, Yemen (2/15/2011 8:15:01 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: flcouple2009 Don't expect things in Iran to go like Egypt. The Army and Police are going to so as the Government orders. Now it is being reported that the opposition leaders may face execution. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/ml_iran_opposition Stranger things have happened. Who would have thought six months ago that the events in Egypt were even possible, much less probable.

flcouple2009 -> RE: Egypt echoes across region: Iran, Bahrain, Yemen (2/15/2011 8:44:32 AM)
The military dictates what happens and there is no sign in Iran they are not going to follow orders. That would require a coup. What do you think would have happened in Egypt if the military had not sat out?

eihwaz -> RE: Egypt echoes across region: Iran, Bahrain, Yemen (2/15/2011 8:50:45 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: flcouple2009 What do youi think would have happened in Egypt if the military had not sat out? Even though Mubarak is out, the form of government in Egypt remains the same as it's been for the past sixty years. What do you think the chances are for real change in Egypt?

ashjor911 -> RE: Egypt echoes across region: Iran, Bahrain, Yemen (2/15/2011 9:20:36 AM)
just correcting ...... in Eygpt Police was attcking the people Military forces was not Iran is not in the (Arab world) it has differant language & culture, but also its part of (Muslim World) Personally i hope the wave of protest keep going from the ocean to the Gulf & beyond its the Time for change i guess & its the Time of peace

Politesub53 -> RE: Egypt echoes across region: Iran, Bahrain, Yemen (2/15/2011 12:56:22 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: rulemylife quote: ORIGINAL: Politesub53 America is the only country capable of putting enough political pressure on Israel to make a difference. This has been made clear in past negotiations. I think this is what hlen was getting it. My question is what would the U.S administration do if any new democracies rejected U.S foreign policy ? God help me, but I'm starting to agree more and more with Popeye. It's time we step off the international stage and tend to our own business first. That sounds good but isnt possible all the time the US, and the EU, want to remain a major player. You cant just jump off of an international stage without harming the economy. The west depends too much on middle eastern oil for that. The US is the major player in the middle east by a long way. There are also many US ( and UK come to that ) friendly despots. What happens if these emerging democracies decide on policies we dont like ? For instance, what if Kuwait and Saudi decided to use oil as a political barganing chip ? Like it or not we are up to our necks in trade and the "what ifs" may well occur in the near future.

Moonhead -> RE: Egypt echoes across region: Iran, Bahrain, Yemen (2/15/2011 1:02:23 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: mnottertail Exactly why we waltzed into Iraq, with that fresh in our mind. No, there are those who never learn. What Ron said, eihwaz. Your last administration spent the whole of its term in office pretending that it was still about 1982, after all. When global politics start to change, the parts of your government that deal with foreign policy and the CIA high ups who play the Rod Hull to their Emu are normally the last people to notice.

rulemylife -> RE: Egypt echoes across region: Iran, Bahrain, Yemen (2/15/2011 1:04:07 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Politesub53 That sounds good but isnt possible all the time the US, and the EU, want to remain a major player. You cant just jump off of an international stage without harming the economy. The west depends too much on middle eastern oil for that. The US is the major player in the middle east by a long way. There are also many US ( and UK come to that ) friendly despots. What happens if these emerging democracies decide on policies we dont like ? For instance, what if Kuwait and Saudi decided to use oil as a political barganing chip ? Like it or not we are up to our necks in trade and the "what ifs" may well occur in the near future. I would rather both our countries become minor players. It doesn't seem we are reaping any great rewards for what we expend. There are alternatives to our oil consumption, but we prefer the path of least resistance until that path dead ends.

kdsub -> RE: Egypt echoes across region: Iran, Bahrain, Yemen (2/15/2011 1:22:53 PM)
quote: That sounds good but isnt possible all the time the US, and the EU, want to remain a major player. You cant just jump off of an international stage without harming the economy. The west depends too much on middle eastern oil for that. One day, and not the too distant future, we here in the US will wake up and realize alternate energy sources will free us from the hell hole of the middle east. ..This should be our number one goal politically and materially. I feel for the people of the area who have never benefited from their resources...first because of the greed of oil companies then because of the greed of their own leaders. It is a shame that such a beautiful and historical part of the world has fallen so low. Imagine how it would be today if oil were never discovered there. In order to control their populations and deflect their discontent mid east leaders have been using religion as a distraction for years. The more conflict over religion the safer their regimes...It has worked very well. Butch

rulemylife -> RE: Egypt echoes across region: Iran, Bahrain, Yemen (2/15/2011 1:31:16 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: flcouple2009 The military dictates what happens and there is no sign in Iran they are not going to follow orders. That would require a coup. What do you think would have happened in Egypt if the military had not sat out? I doubt that it would have been different. We forget that the military of any country is made up of its citizens. And those citizens are not likely to turn on their fellow citizens.

rulemylife -> RE: Egypt echoes across region: Iran, Bahrain, Yemen (2/15/2011 1:50:24 PM)
Bahrain protesters take control of main square DUBAI, United Arab Emirates – Thousands of protesters took over a main square in Bahrain's capital Tuesday — carting in tents and raising banners — in a bold attempt to copy Egypt's uprising and force high-level changes in one of Washington's key allies in the Gulf. The move by demonstrators capped two days of clashes across the tiny island kingdom that left at least two people dead, parliament in limbo by an opposition boycott and the king making a rare address on national television to offer condolences for the bloodshed. Security forces — apparently under orders to hold back — watched from the sidelines as protesters chanted slogans mocking the nation's ruling sheiks and called for sweeping political reforms and an end to monarchy's grip on key decisions and government posts.

Moonhead -> RE: Egypt echoes across region: Iran, Bahrain, Yemen (2/15/2011 2:21:05 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: rulemylife quote: ORIGINAL: flcouple2009 The military dictates what happens and there is no sign in Iran they are not going to follow orders. That would require a coup. What do you think would have happened in Egypt if the military had not sat out? I doubt that it would have been different. We forget that the military of any country is made up of its citizens. And those citizens are not likely to turn on their fellow citizens. Very true. Just look at the Russian revolution...

hlen5 -> RE: Egypt echoes across region: Iran, Bahrain, Yemen (2/15/2011 2:54:48 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: rulemylife quote: ORIGINAL: hlen5 I had great hopes for Obama when he was elected (to be fair he has mostly been trying to put out the fires he inherited). I don't know if he is up for that level of statesmanship. Well, it's really not on his shoulders. I never cease to be amazed that we as Americans seem to think that the world revolves around us and every world crisis rests in our laps. I did not imply it was all on his shoulders. Is he up for the task of representing the US and horsetrading with other nations for what they need as well? I don't know. Tweakabell, I agree the prize is worth it!! Let's keep our fingers crossed!

Politesub53 -> RE: Egypt echoes across region: Iran, Bahrain, Yemen (2/15/2011 3:50:33 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: rulemylife I would rather both our countries become minor players. It doesn't seem we are reaping any great rewards for what we expend. There are alternatives to our oil consumption, but we prefer the path of least resistance until that path dead ends. Surely the rewards are a strong American economy ? It is only in the last few years that America hasnt been able to be dominant in world trade. China, in a large part due to cheap labour, seems to be taking that mantle now. As for alternatives to oil consumption, despite the hype these are a long way off from being in general use. Petrol replacements and electrical powered cars are as yet, ineffecient. As are some of the ideals about wind farms. Much of the money that the UK has ploughed into this type of power has been unable to control the one thing needed....wind. Nuclear power stations may be the answer, but then we have the horrible task of nuclear waste. All in all, oil looks the only supply in the short term at least.

eihwaz -> RE: Egypt echoes across region: Iran, Bahrain, Yemen (2/15/2011 6:12:36 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Moonhead quote: ORIGINAL: mnottertail Exactly why we waltzed into Iraq, with that fresh in our mind. What Ron said, eihwaz. Your last administration spent the whole of its term in office pretending that it was still about 1982, after all. When global politics start to change, the parts of your government that deal with foreign policy and the CIA high ups who play the Rod Hull to their Emu are normally the last people to notice. True, and with the same neocons who emerged from whatever dark places they'd been hiding in since Reagan. However, the US is constrained from deposing governments in the Middle East (as it did the Mossadegh government in 1953) at will. Deposing any Arab government without major repercussions would depend upon the tacit assent and probably cooperation of the major Arab nations. The US had this plus the charade of UN legitimacy when it initiated the (illegal and ill-advised) Iraq war. OTOH, it might happen that Arab governments would feel sufficiently threatened by democracy to endorse (i.e., by silently approving) an American intervention.

Moonhead -> RE: Egypt echoes across region: Iran, Bahrain, Yemen (2/16/2011 5:12:23 AM)
Actually, the chimp didn't have UN backing for the invasion of Iraq: he just went in regardless, dragging his lickspittle Blair after him, didn't he? I think a resolution was quickly rushed through once you were already in the country. No argument with the rest, though. Don't even get me started on the terrible mess deposing Mossadeq caused...

ThatDamnedPanda -> RE: Egypt echoes across region: Iran, Bahrain, Yemen (2/16/2011 6:17:31 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Moonhead quote: ORIGINAL: rulemylife quote: ORIGINAL: flcouple2009 The military dictates what happens and there is no sign in Iran they are not going to follow orders. That would require a coup. What do you think would have happened in Egypt if the military had not sat out? I doubt that it would have been different. We forget that the military of any country is made up of its citizens. And those citizens are not likely to turn on their fellow citizens. Very true. Just look at the Russian revolution... The only country I can recall solving this dilemma in recent memory was China in 1989. The military brought in peasant troops from rural China, who hated the sophisticated urban students and intellectuals protesting in Tiananmen Square. They had relatively little compunction about running them over with tanks when given the OK to do so. The Soviets understood this problem very well - that's why they never relied on indigenous troops when putting down incipient insurrections in their satellite states. They used Soviet Red Army units, sometimes supported by troops from other Warsaw Pact countries, half of whom couldn't stand each other anyway.

eihwaz -> RE: Egypt echoes across region: Iran, Bahrain, Yemen (2/16/2011 7:19:26 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: ThatDamnedPanda quote: ORIGINAL: Moonhead quote: ORIGINAL: rulemylife quote: ORIGINAL: flcouple2009 The military dictates what happens and there is no sign in Iran they are not going to follow orders. That would require a coup... [...] We forget that the military of any country is made up of its citizens. And those citizens are not likely to turn on their fellow citizens. Very true. Just look at the Russian revolution... The only country I can recall solving this dilemma in recent memory was China in 1989. The military brought in peasant troops from rural China, who hated the sophisticated urban students and intellectuals protesting in Tiananmen Square. They had relatively little compunction about running them over with tanks when given the OK to do so.... In Iran, the Army of the Guardians of the Islamic Revolution aka Revolutionary Guards and, in particular, the Basij have repeatedly used lethal force to suppress dissent.

Moonhead -> RE: Egypt echoes across region: Iran, Bahrain, Yemen (2/16/2011 7:27:54 AM)
Yes, but the Revolutionary Guards are a bunch of nutcases who've been given free reign by a theocracy, so what else would you expect?

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