fmfclwu
Posts: 74
Joined: 5/3/2008 Status: offline
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It's a long way to 2012, but the Democrats practically need a Democratic wave year just to not lose ground in the Senate. This election cycle will put the Senate class of 2006 up for reelection, meaning the starting baseline is already a Democratic wave. There are only 10 Republican held seats up for election, and most of them are probably pretty safe holds: Arizona, Indiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Nevada, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming. Not a lot of offensive targets for the Democrats. Although it has been amusing to see Scott Brown trying to hold the middle course between losing the support of his party, and becoming too conservative for Massachusetts. There aren't many polls out, but if you take a very rough extrapolation based on Obama's approval ratings (see fivethirtyeight for lots of analysis of how they project to an incumbent's reelection chances), there's a pretty high chance the Democrats will (narrowly) retake the House, lose the Senate, and hold the Presidency.
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