L.A. County Economy Would Shrink by More Than $100 Billion If All Illegal Immigrants Were Deported

L.A. County Economy Would Shrink by More Than $100 Billion If All Illegal Immigrants Were Deported (Full Version)

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Brain -> L.A. County Economy Would Shrink by More Than $100 Billion If All Illegal Immigrants Were Deported (5/6/2011 3:46:55 PM)
I didn't think immigration policy could be a part of the stimulus but it's good to be prepared for the unexpected. L.A. County Economy Would Shrink by More Than $100 Billion If All Illegal Immigrants Were Deported, Says UCLA Report - Los Angeles News - The Informer California has a gigantic immigrant population -- 10 million strong, or one-quarter of the state -- and one-quarter of those are here illegally. So their complete acceptance or removal by the law would have similarly huge effects on the local economy. The results below are based on figures from before and after 1986, when Reagan granted sweeping amnesty (that's right, Palin -- your hero was a Latino-lover!), combined with the current number of undocumented workers, the taxes they pay and the jobs they vicariously create. http://blogs.laweekly.com/informer/2011/05/los_angeles_economy_illegal_immigrants_ucla.php [image]local://upfiles/392475/13135B94DBB2460C967D6885991CFA80.jpg[/image]

tazzygirl -> RE: L.A. County Economy Would Shrink by More Than $100 Billion If All Illegal Immigrants Were Deported (5/6/2011 4:40:57 PM)
So your article is saying that, by deporting the 2.5 million illegal immigrants in the LA County area alone, would cost the county 100 billion dollars? Its also suggesting that there isnt enough people to fill those positions? Are they also suggesting that many business owners are also illegal immigrants? If that is the case, how did they get licensed? Just curious.

DarkSteven -> RE: L.A. County Economy Would Shrink by More Than $100 Billion If All Illegal Immigrants Were Deported (5/6/2011 7:29:11 PM)
Why does anyone read that idiot Hinojosa-Ojeda? Here are the comments I made about his last fraudulent analysis: "Hinojosa predicts that if comprehensive immigration reform passes in 2010, legalized unauthorized workers would be granted full labor rights, which would in turn boost worker productivity, produce $4.5 to $5.4 billion in new net tax revenue, and generate enough consumer spending to support 750,000 to 900,000 jobs." Huh? Why would being legal make them more productive? Where is the extra net tax revenue coming from? In the book Coyotes by Ted Conover the author recounts how illegals simply made up nine letter SSNs, so that their employers actually DID pay taxes into the system. The article assumes that currently, they pay no taxes and will pay full taxes once legalized, which I dispute. Why would they spend more in the US if legalized? They will still send money back to Mexico and spend minimally here to maximize money sent back home. ---------------------------- "This number doesn’t take into account the additional $206 to $230 billion it would cost just to physically deport undocumented immigrants over a five-year period." Dividing the $200B by the estimated 1.7 million illegals and five years shows that this article clearly assumed that each and every illegal would be deported, and that the physical deportation costs over $20K apiece. What the hell did the author do, assume that we buy each illegal a brand new car to drive to the border and take with them? Brain, do me a favor and run a reasonableness check on articles you post. Just because it's on the Internet doesn't mean it has any pretensions to legitimacy. He hasn't gotten any better. The fundamental assumption underlying his analysis is that if the illegals are deported, nobody will hire to replace them, and all the products that would have been made possible by them, will simply not make it to market. Not only is this a ridiculous assumption, but it also assumes that a business owner will have no incentive whatsoever to make a product and will quit at the first setback, which violates the entire priciple of capitalism, in which the profit motive makes things get done. Brain, why do you post things that are so silly? While I sometimes sympathize with your overall point of view, I don't understand why you don't post articles that support you and are legitimate.

Brain -> RE: L.A. County Economy Would Shrink by More Than $100 Billion If All Illegal Immigrants Were Deported (5/6/2011 11:01:33 PM)
I personally don't know because I'm not an expert on immigration but I assumed if it was written by a UCLA professor and published in a well-known LA weekly publication by somebody named Wilson that it had some merit. I thought it was reasonable to assume what he is saying is true.

popeye1250 -> RE: L.A. County Economy Would Shrink by More Than $100 Billion If All Illegal Immigrants Were Deported (5/6/2011 11:27:27 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Brain I personally don't know because I'm not an expert on immigration but I assumed if it was written by a UCLA professor and published in a well-known LA weekly publication by somebody named Wilson that it had some merit. I thought it was reasonable to assume what he is saying is true. Oh yeah, that's what I look for in an article; "Hmmm, ..."Johnson",....close but he's no "WILSON." Brain, just for future referance ANY article like that that presumes to tell us "how bad" things will get if we deport illegal aliens you have to assume that they have an agenda going into it. Any "figures" that they make up will of course support their position. And Steven's right, how do you come up with "figures" about what may or may not happen in the future and to what extent?

WyldHrt -> RE: L.A. County Economy Would Shrink by More Than $100 Billion If All Illegal Immigrants Were Deported (5/7/2011 1:37:26 AM)
quote: I personally don't know because I'm not an expert on immigration but I assumed if it was written by a UCLA professor and published in a well-known LA weekly publication by somebody named Wilson that it had some merit. I thought it was reasonable to assume what he is saying is true. If you honestly can't spot a completely biased piece of journalistic crapola when you see it, please stop starting threads! [8\|] And umm... a 'well-known LA weekly'??? Did you happen to check out some of the other 'lead stories'? A pink donkey, 'Did Bin Laden grow/ smoke weed?'... and a mummified ex Playboy pinup girl. Hell, add a pic of Batboy, and it is the Weekly World News! FFS [8\|][8\|][8\|]

Hippiekinkster -> RE: L.A. County Economy Would Shrink by More Than $100 Billion If All Illegal Immigrants Were Deported (5/7/2011 1:45:43 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: WyldHrt If you honestly can't spot a completely biased piece of journalistic crapola when you see it, please stop starting threads! [8\|] He can't. Both he and PA are afflicted with thread-starting Tourette's.

Fellow -> RE: L.A. County Economy Would Shrink by More Than $100 Billion If All Illegal Immigrants Were Deported (5/7/2011 1:55:37 AM)
The purpose of the study, of course, is to use junk science to affect politics. Getting rid of some poor people never results in net loss to the modern governments. Yes, the corporations would loose slave labor. I would like to see honest discussion how to deal with the population of illegals ... or just shut up. Such creeping legalization support efforts raise tensions especially during the economic depression.

tazzygirl -> RE: L.A. County Economy Would Shrink by More Than $100 Billion If All Illegal Immigrants Were Deported (5/7/2011 3:45:01 AM)
Brain, math wise, the story doesnt hold up. What it is saying is that by deporting 2.5 million people from the LA County, each person they deport will reduce the income by 40,000. Most of those people dont even make that in a year, let alone draw in that much in revenue for the county. These are also not people who run their own businesses. This story just makes no sense, Brain. I hope you can see why.

thishereboi -> RE: L.A. County Economy Would Shrink by More Than $100 Billion If All Illegal Immigrants Were Deported (5/7/2011 6:33:12 AM)
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DarkSteven -> RE: L.A. County Economy Would Shrink by More Than $100 Billion If All Illegal Immigrants Were Deported (5/7/2011 6:47:41 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: popeye1250 how do you come up with "figures" about what may or may not happen in the future and to what extent? That's not so difficult, actually. The prof's scenario is a crude first step. If he then put in a few factors to account for some of the businesses going broke and some of them hiring replacement labor at a higher rate (the last thing he wants to do, because it would be US citizens picking up the slack, which he does not want to admit is a possibility), and the difference in the effects of a citizen vs a noncitizen working, such as money getting sent out of the country, it might be usable. quote: ORIGINAL: tazzygirl math wise, the story doesnt hold up. What it is saying is that by deporting 2.5 million people from the LA County, each person they deport will reduce the income by 40,000. Most of those people dont even make that in a year, let alone draw in that much in revenue for the county. These are also not people who run their own businesses. This story just makes no sense, Brain. I hope you can see why. tazzy, the idea is that there's a multiplier. If one of them gets paid $20K/year, and he spends 80% of it here, saves nothing, and sends the other 20% south of the border, then he will pump $16K back into the state's economy. The people he pays the $16K to will then pay all or most of that out, ad infinitum. If all concerned saved 50% and spent 50%, then the multiplier would be 2. The truth is that if you pay a noncitizen money, in this instance, a good share of it will find its way being sent out of the country to support back-home relatives. For obvious reasons, Hinojosa-Ojeda omitted that, making his analysis fraudulent but permitting him to claim that he "proved" the effects of deportation.

tazzygirl -> RE: L.A. County Economy Would Shrink by More Than $100 Billion If All Illegal Immigrants Were Deported (5/7/2011 8:39:45 AM)
I know DS. Its a bit silly to imagine all that money will be pumped back into the local economy. From personal experience, many live within one home/apartment, splitting the costs. As much as half their income is sent back home to help there. The one's I know of, there are 6 in one apartment, splitting the costs, sending half back home, eating mostly at their place of work (provided by the owners), rent, utilities and food are purchased by the owners... The numbers the article suggests just are not there.

NewOCDaddy -> RE: L.A. County Economy Would Shrink by More Than $100 Billion If All Illegal Immigrants Were Deported (5/7/2011 10:38:50 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: DarkSteven quote: ORIGINAL: popeye1250 how do you come up with "figures" about what may or may not happen in the future and to what extent? That's not so difficult, actually. The prof's scenario is a crude first step. If he then put in a few factors to account for some of the businesses going broke and some of them hiring replacement labor at a higher rate (the last thing he wants to do, because it would be US citizens picking up the slack, which he does not want to admit is a possibility), and the difference in the effects of a citizen vs a noncitizen working, such as money getting sent out of the country, it might be usable. quote: ORIGINAL: tazzygirl math wise, the story doesnt hold up. What it is saying is that by deporting 2.5 million people from the LA County, each person they deport will reduce the income by 40,000. Most of those people dont even make that in a year, let alone draw in that much in revenue for the county. These are also not people who run their own businesses. This story just makes no sense, Brain. I hope you can see why. tazzy, the idea is that there's a multiplier. If one of them gets paid $20K/year, and he spends 80% of it here, saves nothing, and sends the other 20% south of the border, then he will pump $16K back into the state's economy. The people he pays the $16K to will then pay all or most of that out, ad infinitum. If all concerned saved 50% and spent 50%, then the multiplier would be 2. The truth is that if you pay a noncitizen money, in this instance, a good share of it will find its way being sent out of the country to support back-home relatives. For obvious reasons, Hinojosa-Ojeda omitted that, making his analysis fraudulent but permitting him to claim that he "proved" the effects of deportation. The problem with this as related to the OP is that it assumes that none of each of those 16k's would be paid to someone else. The net of what an illegal contributes to the economy that would not be replaced by some other worker/consumer is miniscule compared to what they cost in education expenses alone.

thompsonx -> RE: L.A. County Economy Would Shrink by More Than $100 Billion If All Illegal Immigrants Were Deported (5/7/2011 3:38:21 PM)
quote: The problem with this as related to the OP is that it assumes that none of each of those 16k's would be paid to someone else. The net of what an illegal contributes to the economy that would not be replaced by some other worker/consumer is miniscule compared to what they cost in education expenses alone. Education is funded by property tax...unless you live under a bridge you pay property tax. If as tazz says "they" live six to an apartment then"they" obviously do not have kids and thus contributors to a money pool that" they" do not draw from. If on the other hand "they" have kids in school "they" are paying for that with their property taxes. You argument about educational expenses just does not stand up to scrutny.

thompsonx -> RE: L.A. County Economy Would Shrink by More Than $100 Billion If All Illegal Immigrants Were Deported (5/7/2011 3:45:22 PM)
quote: He hasn't gotten any better. The fundamental assumption underlying his analysis is that if the illegals are deported, nobody will hire to replace them, and all the products that would have been made possible by them, will simply not make it to market. I am with you at this point Not only is this a ridiculous assumption, but it also assumes that a business owner will have no incentive whatsoever to make a product and will quit at the first setback, I think he assumes that the business owner will have no incentive to make the same product for the same price because he will be forced to pay more for labor. which violates the entire priciple of capitalism, in which the profit motive makes things get done. Here is where you completely lost me. To me this implies that things get done best, or well, or as good as can be... ie: In the field of vcr's beta was far and away the better format but vhs won out because it brought more profit.

thompsonx -> RE: L.A. County Economy Would Shrink by More Than $100 Billion If All Illegal Immigrants Were Deported (5/7/2011 3:52:09 PM)
quote: and the difference in the effects of a citizen vs a noncitizen working, such as money getting sent out of the country, it might be usable. I would like to go on record for the umpteenth time that I am not in favor of illegal immigration. That said I think that if a person earns money then that person has a RIGHT to spend that money as they choose. For anyone to slam a "family value" like supporting your family is disingenuous at best.

DarkSteven -> RE: L.A. County Economy Would Shrink by More Than $100 Billion If All Illegal Immigrants Were Deported (5/7/2011 4:00:57 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: thompsonx which violates the entire priciple of capitalism, in which the profit motive makes things get done. Here is where you completely lost me. To me this implies that things get done best, or well, or as good as can be... ie: In the field of vcr's beta was far and away the better format but vhs won out because it brought more profit. Well, the profit motive DID get things done. Unfortunately, they were not optimal for the consumer. Still, in a centralized economy where the state owns the means of production, the businesses would likely die. I prefer capitalism, warts and all.

thompsonx -> RE: L.A. County Economy Would Shrink by More Than $100 Billion If All Illegal Immigrants Were Deported (5/7/2011 4:48:38 PM)
quote: Well, the profit motive DID get things done. Unfortunately, they were not optimal for the consumer. Still, in a centralized economy where the state owns the means of production, the businesses would likely die. I prefer capitalism, warts and all. In a centralized economy where the state owns the means of production do you think illegals would be a factor???that may be one of the upsides of a centralized economy. You will note the only times that s. korea's production falters is when they are overcome with a temporary infatuation with democracy.

NewOCDaddy -> RE: L.A. County Economy Would Shrink by More Than $100 Billion If All Illegal Immigrants Were Deported (5/7/2011 5:19:49 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: thompsonx quote: The problem with this as related to the OP is that it assumes that none of each of those 16k's would be paid to someone else. The net of what an illegal contributes to the economy that would not be replaced by some other worker/consumer is miniscule compared to what they cost in education expenses alone. Education is funded by property tax...unless you live under a bridge you pay property tax. If as tazz says "they" live six to an apartment then"they" obviously do not have kids and thus contributors to a money pool that" they" do not draw from. If on the other hand "they" have kids in school "they" are paying for that with their property taxes. You argument about educational expenses just does not stand up to scrutny. I dont know or give a shit what state you live in but the LA USD receives most of its revenues from the State, not from property taxes. (nearly 5 billion, compared to less than 1 billion from Federal and Local combined). Your analysis is also horseshit. To the extent that multiple families live in a single family unit, they are underpaying property taxes as well. And that "'they" obviously do not have kids" is so asinine it barely deserves comment. Your intellectual capabilities do not stand up to scrutIny.

DarkSteven -> RE: L.A. County Economy Would Shrink by More Than $100 Billion If All Illegal Immigrants Were Deported (5/7/2011 5:39:21 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: thompsonx quote: Well, the profit motive DID get things done. Unfortunately, they were not optimal for the consumer. Still, in a centralized economy where the state owns the means of production, the businesses would likely die. I prefer capitalism, warts and all. In a centralized economy where the state owns the means of production do you think illegals would be a factor???that may be one of the upsides of a centralized economy. You will note the only times that s. korea's production falters is when they are overcome with a temporary infatuation with democracy. Um... do you mean to say South Korea has a centralized economy? I thought they were capitalistically-inclined. North Korea of course has a centralized economy, but nobody would point to them as any kind of good example.

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